Leading Economic Indicator Rises For Fourth Consecutive Month; Reaches Seven Year High

? Chemical Activity Barometer suggests increased business activity into fourth quarter 2015 -

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Apr 21, 2015, 09:07 ET

WASHINGTON, April 21, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), was up 0.1 percent in April, as measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA). Reaching an index of 98.1, last seen in January 2008, the CAB remains up 2.6 percent over a year ago, and suggests gains in business activity will continue into the fourth quarter.

Leading Economic Indicator Reaches Seven Year High; Suggests Improving Business Activity

The Chemical Activity Barometer has four primary components, each consisting of a variety of indicators: 1) production; 2) equity prices; 3) product prices; and 4) inventories and other indicators. All components were up in April.

"All of the major production-related indicators are up and we might continue to see a strengthening. Construction-related chemistries have been adversely affected by bad weather so far this year, but we expect an improvement as we get further into spring," said Kevin Swift, chief economist at the American Chemistry Council. "The data on plastic resins and polymers for packaging suggest that retail sales should continue to be strong as well," Swift added.

The Chemical Activity Barometer is a leading economic indicator derived from a composite index of chemical industry activity. The chemical industry has been found to consistently lead the U.S. economy's business cycle given its early position in the supply chain, and this barometer can be used to determine turning points and likely trends in the wider economy. Month-to-month movements can be volatile so a three-month moving average of the barometer is provided. This provides a more consistent and illustrative picture of national economic trends.

Applying the CAB back to 1919, it has been shown to provide a lead of two to 14 months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2007 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index.

Chemical Activity Barometer for the Latest Six Months and Year-Ago Month*

	Apr-14	Nov-14	Dec-14	Jan-15	Feb-15	Mar-15	Apr-15

CAB (3 MMA)	95.5	97.6	97.5	97.8	97.9	98.0	98.1
% M/M	0.5	0.4	-0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.1
% Y/Y	3.6	4.0	3.7	3.7	3.5	3.0	2.6

CAB	96.1	97.8	97.9	98.0	98.1	98.4	98.8
% M/M	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4
% Y/Y	4.1	4.0	3.8	3.5	3.3	2.9	2.8

*Percentage changes may not reflect index values due to rounding.

The CAB comprises indicators relating to the production of chlorine and other alkalies, pigments, plastic resins and other selected basic industrial chemicals; chemical company stock data; hours worked in chemicals; publicly sourced, chemical price information; end-use (or customer) industry sales-to-inventories; and several broader leading economic measures (building permits and new orders). Each month, ACC provides a barometer number, which reflects activity data for the current month, as well as a three-month moving average. The CAB was developed by the economics department at the American Chemistry Council.

The next CAB is currently planned for:
26 May 2015
9:00 a.m. Eastern Time

The CAB is designed and prepared in compliance with ACC's Antitrust Guidelines and FTC Safe Harbor Guidelines; does not use company-specific price information as input data; and data is aggregated such that company-specific and product-specific data cannot be determined.

Note: Every effort has been made in the preparation of this publication to provide the best available information. However, neither the American Chemistry Council, nor any of its employees, agents or other assigns makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any liability or responsibility for any use, or the results of such use, of any information or data disclosed in this material.
www.americanchemistry.com

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SOURCE American Chemistry Council