July Home Price Gains Concentrated in the West According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
NEW YORK, Sept. 29, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for July 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices' housing blog: www.housingviews.com.
Year-over-Year
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 4.7% annual increase in July 2015 versus a 4.5% increase in June 2015. The 10-City Composite was virtually unchanged from last month, rising 4.5% year-over-year. The 20-City Composite had higher year-over-year gains, with an increase of 5.0%.
San Francisco, Denver and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities with price increases of 10.4%, 10.3%, and 8.7%, respectively. Fourteen cities reported greater price increases in the year ending July 2015 over the year ending June 2015. San Francisco and Denver are the only cities with a double digit increase, and Phoenix had the longest streak of year-over-year increases. Phoenix reported an increase of 4.6% in July 2015, the eighth consecutive year-over-year increase. Boston posted a 4.3% annual increase, up from 3.2% in June 2015; this is the biggest jump in year-over-year gains this month.
Month-over-Month
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a gain of 0.7% month-over-month in July. The 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite both reported gains of 0.6% month-over-month. After seasonal adjustment, the National index posted a gain of 0.4%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites were both down 0.2% month-over-month. All 20 cities reported increases in July before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, 10 were down, nine were up, and one was unchanged.
Analysis
"Prices of existing homes and housing overall are seeing strong growth and contributing to recent solid growth for the economy," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "The S&P/Case Shiller National Home Price Index has risen at a 4% or higher annual rate since September 2012, well ahead of inflation. Most of the strength is focused on states west of the Mississippi. The three cities with the largest cumulative price increases since January 2000 are all in California: Los Angeles (138%), San Francisco (116%) and San Diego (115%). The two smallest gains since January 2000 are Detroit (3%) and Cleveland (10%). The Sunbelt cities – Miami, Tampa, Phoenix and Las Vegas – which were the poster children of the housing boom have yet to make new all-time highs.
"The economy grew at a 3.9% real annual rate in the second quarter of 2015 with housing making a major contribution. Residential investment grew at annual real rates of 9-10% in the last three quarters (2014:4th quarter, 2015:1st-2nd quarters), far faster than total GDP. Further, expenditures on furniture and household equipment, a sector that depends on home sales and housing construction, also surpassed total GDP growth rates. Other positive indicators of current and expected future housing activity include gains in sales of new and existing housing and the National Association of Home Builders sentiment index. An interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, now expected in December by many analysts, is not likely to derail the strong housing performance."
Table 1 below summarizes the results for July 2015. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
| July 2015 |
July/June |
June/May |
1-Year |
|
| Metropolitan Area |
Level |
Change (%) |
Change (%) |
Change (%) |
| Atlanta |
125.88 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
5.8% |
| Boston |
183.95 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
4.3% |
| Charlotte |
134.47 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
4.9% |
| Chicago |
133.36 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
1.8% |
| Cleveland |
110.47 |
0.8% |
1.4% |
3.1% |
| Dallas |
153.47 |
1.2% |
0.9% |
8.7% |
| Denver |
171.31 |
0.7% |
1.3% |
10.3% |
| Detroit |
103.42 |
0.7% |
1.6% |
5.4% |
| Las Vegas |
144.39 |
0.8% |
0.7% |
6.2% |
| Los Angeles |
238.24 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
6.1% |
| Miami |
201.30 |
0.4% |
0.3% |
7.3% |
| Minneapolis |
147.15 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
3.6% |
| New York |
180.44 |
0.5% |
1.1% |
1.9% |
| Phoenix |
154.03 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
4.6% |
| Portland |
184.56 |
1.3% |
1.5% |
8.5% |
| San Diego |
214.68 |
1.1% |
0.3% |
5.4% |
| San Francisco |
215.84 |
0.6% |
0.4% |
10.4% |
| Seattle |
183.31 |
0.5% |
1.1% |
7.3% |
| Tampa |
170.88 |
0.6% |
0.3% |
5.5% |
| Washington |
214.00 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
1.7% |
| Composite-10 |
196.85 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
4.5% |
| Composite-20 |
181.90 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
5.0% |
| U.S. National |
175.11 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
4.7% |
| Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
||||
| Data through July 2015 |
||||
Table 2 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
| July/June Change (%) |
June/May Change (%) |
|||
| Metropolitan Area |
NSA |
SA |
NSA |
SA |
| Atlanta |
0.8% |
-0.2% |
1.3% |
-0.5% |
| Boston |
1.1% |
0.2% |
1.4% |
0.1% |
| Charlotte |
0.1% |
-0.1% |
0.6% |
-0.2% |
| Chicago |
0.9% |
-1.2% |
1.0% |
-1.3% |
| Cleveland |
0.8% |
0.3% |
1.4% |
0.0% |
| Dallas |
1.2% |
0.6% |
0.9% |
0.1% |
| Denver |
0.7% |
0.2% |
1.3% |
0.3% |
| Detroit |
0.7% |
-0.9% |
1.6% |
-0.6% |
| Las Vegas |
0.8% |
0.4% |
0.7% |
0.2% |
| Los Angeles |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.8% |
0.1% |
| Miami |
0.4% |
-0.3% |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
| Minneapolis |
0.8% |
-0.8% |
1.1% |
-0.8% |
| New York |
0.5% |
-0.5% |
1.1% |
-0.5% |
| Phoenix |
0.7% |
0.5% |
0.9% |
0.3% |
| Portland |
1.3% |
0.6% |
1.5% |
0.5% |
| San Diego |
1.1% |
0.8% |
0.3% |
-0.3% |
| San Francisco |
0.6% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
| Seattle |
0.5% |
-0.1% |
1.1% |
0.1% |
| Tampa |
0.6% |
-0.1% |
0.3% |
-0.7% |
| Washington |
0.5% |
-0.2% |
0.8% |
-0.1% |
| Composite-10 |
0.6% |
-0.2% |
0.9% |
-0.2% |
| Composite-20 |
0.6% |
-0.2% |
0.9% |
-0.2% |
| U.S. National |
0.7% |
0.4% |
0.9% |
0.1% |
| Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
||||
| Data through July 2015 |
||||
For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spdji.com.
About S&P Dow Jones Indices
S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a part of McGraw Hill Financial, is the world's largest, global resource for index-based concepts, data and research. Home to iconic financial market indicators, such as the S&P 500® and the Dow Jones Industrial Average®, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC has over 115 years of experience constructing innovative and transparent solutions that fulfill the needs of investors. More assets are invested in products based upon our indices than any other provider in the world. With over 1,000,000 indices covering a wide range of asset classes across the globe, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC defines the way investors measure and trade the markets. To learn more about our company, please visit www.spdji.com.
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For more Information:
David R. Guarino
Head of Communications
New York, USA
(+1) 212 438 1471
[email protected]
David Blitzer
Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee
S&P Dow Jones Indices
(+1) 212 438 3907
[email protected]
SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices
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