In Swing States Majorities of Republicans and Democrats Oppose Criminalizing Abortion Before Fetal Viability

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Sep 04, 2024, 06:00 ET

Favor Ensuring Access to Birth Control

COLLEGE PARK, Md., Sept. 4, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- While policymakers argue over whether abortion should be a right or a crime, the public has a clear policy stance on the matter. A new survey in the six swing states finds that majorities of Republicans and Democrats oppose criminalizing abortion before fetal viability. Bipartisan majorities favor reducing unintended pregnancies and abortions through policies ensuring access to birth control.

Do not make abortion a crime before fetal viability

This survey by the University of Maryland's Program for Public Consultation (PPC) is the fifth in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in six swing states and nationally on major policies. Unlike traditional polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online "policymaking simulation" in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides of the issues to ensure accuracy and balance.

Criminalizing Abortion
Large bipartisan majorities in every swing state do not want abortion to be criminalized before fetal viability (73% to 80%), including Republicans (57% to 70%) and Democrats (83% to 93%), as well as 77% nationally.

Before making their decision, respondents were informed that criminalizing abortion means prison time or fines for the doctor or the woman. After evaluating strong arguments for and against criminalizing abortion, respondents could choose to: make abortion a crime 1) at all stages of pregnancy, 2) only after 15 weeks, 3) only after fetal viability (22-24 weeks), or 4) not make abortion a crime at any stage of pregnancy.

In Arizona and Nevada, there will be measures on the 2024 ballot to prevent the government from criminalizing abortion before fetal viability. In both states, bipartisan majorities of 80% do not want abortion to be a crime before viability, including seven-in-ten Republicans and nine-in-ten Democrats.

Smaller but still robust majorities go further and oppose criminalizing abortion at any stage of pregnancy: 61% to 70% in the swing states, including large majorities of Democrats (73% to 85%) and small majorities of Republicans in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada (52% to 55%). Among Republicans in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it is less than half (41% to 48%). Nationally, two-thirds take this position, including eight-in-ten Democrats, and half of Republicans.

Support for criminalizing abortion at all stages of pregnancy is just 7% to 13% in the swing states, including just 10% to 25% of Republicans and 3% to 7% of Democrats. Nationally, support is just 11% (Republicans 19%, Democrats 5%).

Public Overestimation of Support for Criminalizing All Abortions
Respondents were asked to estimate what percent of Americans support criminalizing abortion at all stages of pregnancy. In all swing states and nationally, the majority estimated 35% or more. The actual level of support for that policy is just 11% nationally.

Making Abortion Law Federal or Leaving Up to States
After choosing which abortion law they favor, respondents were asked whether they want their preferred abortion law to be a federal law that applies nationwide, or only the law in their own state with every other state able to have their own law. Large majorities in every swing state favor having a federal law (68% to 73%). This includes majorities of Republicans in five of the swing states (58% to 66%), but just under half in Nevada (48%) – an 18-point spread across states. Among Democrats in the swing states, 76% to 87% want a federal law. Nationally, 70% take this position (Republicans 56%, Democrats 82%). [GRAPH]

Majorities nationally support a federal law irrespective of their preference for what the law should be. This includes the full range from those who want to criminalize abortion at any stage of pregnancy to those who oppose any criminalization.

Ensuring Access to Birth Control
Policies that seek to reduce unintended pregnancies and abortions through access to birth control receive large majority support among Republicans and Democrats in every swing state, and nationally.

Requiring all public schools to provide education about birth control is supported by 80% to 84% in the swing states, including Republicans (74% to 80%) and Democrats (86% to 93%), as well as 80% nationally. [GRAPH]
Ensuring nationwide access to birth control, by prohibiting state governments from restricting or banning birth control, is supported by 80% to 85% in the swing states, including Republicans (71% to 81%) and Democrats (86% to 93%), as well as 81% nationally. [GRAPH]
Continuing the Affordable Care Act mandate that most insurance plans cover long-term birth control, such as the pill and IUDs, is supported by 85% to 90% in the swing states, including Republicans (76% to 87%) and Democrats (91% to 96%), as well as 85% nationally. [GRAPH]
Increasing funding for health care clinics so they can provide long-term birth control for free or at a low cost is supported by 78% to 80% in the swing states, including 66% to 71% of Republicans and 88% to 93% of Democrats, as well as 76% nationally. [GRAPH]

Steven Kull comments, "Large bipartisan majorities want to greatly limit the role of government when it comes to abortion, but they do want the government to actively ensure access to birth control."

Trying to Reduce Abortions Through Mandatory Ultrasounds and Waiting Periods
Respondents were asked about methods for trying to reduce abortions by putting more requirements on the process of getting an abortion, as has been done in several states. Views vary across the swing states, with less than half in support nationally. Majorities of Republicans are generally in support, while majorities of Democrats are opposed.

Requiring doctors to show an ultrasound of the fetus to the woman before providing the abortion, is supported by a majority only in Georgia (57%), they are divided in Wisconsin (51%), and by less than half in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania (44% to 46%). Among Republicans in the swing states, 52% to 66% are in favor, while among Democrats just 26% to 49% are in favor. Nationally, 48% favor this requirement (Republicans 60%, Democrats 36%), while 52% oppose it. [GRAPH]
Requiring a waiting period of 1-3 days before receiving an abortion is supported by a majority only in Georgia (54%), by half in Michigan and Wisconsin (50%), and by less than half in Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania (43% to 48%). Among Republicans, majorities in five of the swing states are in favor (58% to 67%), but just half in Nevada (49%). Among Democrats in the swing states, just 31% to 44% are in favor. Nationally, 44% are in favor (Republicans 59%, Democrats 33%) and 54% opposed. [GRAPH]

About the Survey
The survey was fielded June 18th through July 3rd, 2024 with 4,957 adults by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy, including approximately 600 in each state of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and 1,214 nationally. Samples were obtained from multiple online opt-in panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. Samples were pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, and partisan affiliation (in some states) to match the general adult population. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval for the national sample is +/-3.2%, and for each of the state sample it ranges from +/-4.2% to 4.8%.

About the Program for Public Consultation
The Program for Public Consultation (PPC) at the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy, develops and conducts public consultation surveys, seeking to improve democratic governance by consulting representative samples of citizens on key public policy issues. It shares its findings with officials in government, the media, other academics, and the general public.