HOME SELLER PROFIT MARGINS DROP SLIGHTLY ACROSS U.S. AS HOUSING MARKET SLOWS DURING THIRD QUARTER

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Oct 17, 2024, 00:01 ET

Returns on Typical U.S. Home Sales Remain High but Dip Down Quarterly and Annually;Typical Margin at 56 percent as Median U.S. Home Price Levels Out Over Summer; Median Raw Profits Hold Steady at Just Under $130,000

IRVINE, Calif., Oct. 17, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its third-quarter 2024 U.S. Home Sales Report, which shows that homeowners earned a 55.6 percent profit margin on typical single-family home and condo sales in the United States during the third quarter. That figure was down by small amounts both quarterly and annually, dipping by one percentage point from the second quarter of 2024 and two points from the third quarter of last year.

The nationwide investment return ticked downward as home-price spikes that had buoyed the housing market during the Spring of this year flattened out, leaving the U.S. median home value virtually unchanged at about $360,000. While home-seller profits remain historically high, the national margin has declined almost every quarter from a 64 percent peak hit in 2022.

The leveling off of prices during the third quarter also led to typical raw profits for sellers staying about the same, near an all-time high of just under $130,000.

"The latest price and profit numbers provided another round of generally good news for homeowners, tempered by a bit of a downside," said Rob Barber, CEO for ATTOM. "Home values remained at or near record levels around large swaths of the country, keeping seller profits far above historical levels. At the same time, though, the housing market settled down after a big second quarter, which extended a slow fallback in profit margins that started last year. If history is a good guide, the fourth quarter is likely to bring more of the same as the peak buying season ends."

He added that "this is far from a warning sign that the long market boom is ending. But there certainly are forces that could cut either way, especially as affordability remains a challenge for so many potential buyers."

Profit margins slip quarterly in half of U.S. and annually in three-quarters of nation
Typical profit margins – the percent difference between median purchase and resale prices – stayed the same or decreased from the second quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2024 in 79 (50.6 percent) of the 156 metropolitan statistical areas around the U.S. with sufficient data to analyze. They were down annually in 112, or 71.8 percent, of those metros, and down in about the same portion since the second quarter of 2022, when the nationwide return on median-priced home sales peaked at 64.3 percent.

Profit margins have softened over the past year throughout all price segments of the market, from metro areas where home values mostly sit below $250,000 to those where they top $450,000. But the low end of the market has fared a bit better. Typical margins decreased annually in about 60 percent of the least expensive metro areas compared to about 75 percent elsewhere.

The biggest year-over-year decreases in typical profit margins during the third quarter of 2024 came in the metro areas of San Francisco, CA (margin down from 84.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023 to 61.4 percent in the third quarter of 2024); Punta Gorda, FL (down from 94.1 percent to 74.4 percent); Scranton, PA (down from 88.2 percent to 69.6 percent); South Bend, IN (down from 77.3 percent to 59.2 percent) and Hilo, HI (down from 86.5 percent to 70.5 percent).

Aside from San Francisco, the biggest annual profit-margin decreases in metro areas with a population of at least 1 million in the third quarter of 2024 were in Austin, TX (typical return down from 44.3 percent to 33.3 percent); Honolulu, HI (down from 53.9 percent to 43.3 percent); Riverside, CA (down from 78.6 percent to 69 percent) and Birmingham, AL (down from 52.1 percent to 42.7 percent).

The biggest annual improvements in returns on investment came in Trenton, NJ (margin up from 65.5 percent in the third quarter of 2023 to 87.4 percent in the third quarter of 2024); Albany, NY (up from 31.8 percent to 51.6 percent); Rockford, IL (up from 54.5 percent to 70.2 percent); Rochester, NY (up from 66.7 percent to 81.2 percent) and Evansville, IN (up from 47.2 percent to 61.7 percent).

Two-thirds of metro markets enjoying investment returns above 50 percent
Despite the downward trend, returns on investment for median-priced home sales during the third quarter of 2024 still surpassed 50 percent in 107 of the metro areas analyzed (68.6 percent). That was down from three quarters of those areas in the third quarter of last year but far above the level of 13 percent five years ago.

The leaders among areas with a population of at least 1 million in the third quarter of this year were San Jose, CA (typical return of 109.8 percent); Seattle, WA (90.3 percent); Providence, RI (84.6 percent); Miami, FL (83.9 percent) and Grand Rapids, MI (81.9 percent).

The lowest among areas with a population of at least 1 million were in New Orleans, LA (24.8 percent); San Antonio, TX (25.1 percent); Austin, TX (33.3 percent); Houston, TX (37.3 percent) and Dallas, TX (37.4 percent).

Raw profits remain near record level
The raw profit on median-priced home sales nationwide, measured in dollars, slipped 0.9 percent during the months running from July through September of this year, to $128,700. But it was still up 2.7 percent from the third quarter of 2023 and remained near the record of $135,000 hit in 2022.

Typical raw profits were flat or down quarterly in 74, or 47.4 percent, of the markets analyzed. Despite the nationwide year-over-year gain, raw profits were the same or down annually in 82, or 52.6 percent of those metro areas.

The biggest year-over-year increases in raw profits on typical sales among metro areas with a population of at least 1 million were in Rochester, NY (up 24.4 percent); Cleveland, OH (up 23.5 percent); Providence, RI (up 18.9 percent); Chicago, IL (up 18.8 percent) and Cincinnati, OH (up 15 percent).

Raw profits on median-priced sales exceeded $100,000 during the third quarter in 67.3 percent of the metro areas analyzed, with 19 of the top 20 along the east or west coasts. They were led by San Jose, CA (raw profit of $785,000); San Francisco, CA ($380,600); San Diego, CA ($377,000); Los Angeles, CA ($376,000) and Barnstable, MA ($361,968).

The 25 lowest raw profits were all in the Midwest or South. The smallest were in Beaumont, TX ($15,481); Lubbock, TX ($29,740); Montgomery. AL ($35,590); Macon, GA ($37,692) and McAllen, TX ($40.312).

National median home value stalls in Summer of 2024, but still at all-time high
Nationwide, the median price of single-family homes and condos rose from the second to the third quarter of 2024 by just 0.2 percent after spiking 7.4 percent in the Spring. But it still hit a new record of $360,500, up from $359,900 in the prior three-month period. The latest median was up 5.3 percent from $342,500 in the third quarter of last year.

The typical value increased quarterly in 52.5 percent of the metro areas around the country with enough data to analyze and annually in 81.6 percent. It hit new highs during the third quarter in 50 percent of those markets.

Metro areas in upper half of the U.S. market, concentrated in the West and South regions, suffered the largest quarterly price declines. About two-thirds of those locations, with typical values of at least $350,000, absorbed losses. Measured annually, the best gains came in low-priced areas, clustered more in the Midwest and Northeast.

Markets with a population of at least 1 million and the biggest quarterly decreases in median home prices were San Francisco, CA (down 11.1 percent from the second to the third quarter of this year, to $1 million); Austin, TX (down 10.5 percent, to $425,000); New Orleans, LA (down 6.6 percent, to $242,900); San Jose, CA (down 6.1 percent, to $1.5 million) and Indianapolis, IN (down 4.2 percent, to $263,560).

The largest annual median-price increases in metro areas with a population of at least 1 million were in Rochester, NY (up 11.1 percent from the third quarter of 2023 to the third quarter of 2024, to $250,000); Providence, RI (up 10.3 percent, to $480,000); Hartford, CT (up 9.6 percent, to $367,000); Detroit, MI (up 9.4 percent, to $255,000) and Cleveland, OH (up 9.4 percent, to $221,000).

Historical Median Home Sales Prices

Homeowners staying longer before selling
Homeowners who sold in the third quarter of 2024 had owned their homes an average of 8.09 years. That was up from 7.82 years in the second quarter of 2024 and from 7.74 years in the third quarter of 2023, marking the fifth increase in the last six quarters.

Average tenure was up from the third quarter of 2023 to the same period this year in 82 percent of metro areas with sufficient data. The largest annual increases were in Peoria, IL (tenure up 15 percent); Crestview, FL (up 14 percent); Medford, OR (up 14 percent); Salinas, CA (up 11 percent) and Fort Collins, CO (up 10 percent).

The longest average tenures for owners who sold in the third quarter were again in the Northeast or West regions of the U.S. They were led by Barnstable, MA (13.84 years); Bridgeport, CT (13.23 years); New Haven, CT (12.81 years); Hartford, CT (12.81 years) and San Francisco, CA (12.69 years).

Average U.S. Homeownership Tenure

The shortest average tenures among third-quarter sellers were in Provo, UT (6.62 years); Oklahoma City, OK (6.69 years); Lakeland, FL (6.81 years); San Antonio, TX (6.83 years) and Austin, TX (6.87 years).

Lender-owned foreclosures still decreasing
Home sales following foreclosures by banks and other lenders represented just 1.3 percent, or one of every 78 U.S. single-family home and condo sales in the third quarter of 2024. That was down from 1.4 percent in both the second quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of last year. The portion continues to represent just a tiny fraction of the 30.1 percent peak this century hit in 2009 during the aftermath of the Great Recession of 2007.

Among metro areas with sufficient data, those where REO sales represented the largest portion of all sales in the third quarter of 2024 included Honolulu (7.5 percent); Albany, NY (4.9 percent); Flint, MI (4.7 percent); Macon, GA (4.6 percent) and St. Louis, MO (3.6 percent).

Cash sales drop as portion of all transactions
Nationwide, all-cash sales accounted for 37.2 percent of single-family home and condo sales in the third quarter of 2024. That was down from 38.9 percent in the second quarter of 2024, although up slightly from 36.9 percent in the third quarter of last year.

Among metropolitan areas with sufficient data, those where all-cash sales represented the largest share of all transactions in the third quarter of 2024 included Myrtle Beach, SC (69 percent of all sales); Claremont-Lebanon, NH (64.8 percent); Macon, GA (59.9 percent); Warner Robins, GA (58.3 percent) and Hilton Head, SC (58 percent).

Those where cash sales represented the smallest share of all transactions in the third quarter of 2024 included Greeley, CO (15.7 percent); Hagerstown, MD (19.6 percent); Jacksonville, NC (21.6 percent); Washington, DC (22.2 percent) and Kennewick, WA (22.3 percent).

Institutional investment decreases again
Institutional investors nationwide accounted for 6 percent, or one of every 17 single-family home and condo sales in the third quarter of 2024. That was down from 6.2 percent in the second quarter of 2024 and from 6.6 percent in the third quarter of last year.

Among states with enough data to analyze, those with the largest percentages of sales to institutional investors in the third quarter of 2024 included Alabama (9.1 percent of all sales), Tennessee (8.9 percent), Oklahoma (8.4 percent), Georgia (8.2 percent) and Texas (8.1 percent).

Historical Home Sales by Type

FHA-financed purchases stay roughly the same
Nationwide, buyers using Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans comprised 8.4 percent of all single-family home and condo sales in the third quarter of 2024 (one of every 12). That was about the same as the 8.2 percent level in second quarter of 2024 and down slightly from 8.7 percent a year earlier.

Among metropolitan areas with sufficient FHA-buyer data, those with the highest levels of FHA sales in the third quarter of 2024 included Lakeland, FL (24.1 percent of all sales); Merced, CA (23.5 percent); Bakersfield, CA (21.7 percent); Yuma, AZ (20.6 percent) and Visalia, CA (19.6 percent).

Report methodology
The ATTOM U.S. Home Sales Report provides percentages of REO sales and all sales that are sold to institutional investors and cash buyers, at the state and metropolitan statistical area. Data is also available at the county and zip code level, upon request. The data is derived from recorded sales deeds, foreclosure filings and loan data. Statistics for previous quarters are revised when each new report is issued as more deed data becomes available.

Definitions
All-cash purchase: sale where no loan is recorded at the time of sale and where ATTOM has coverage of loan data.

Homeownership tenure: for a given market and given quarter, the average time between the most recent sale date and the previous sale date, expressed in years.

Home seller price gains: the difference between the median sales price of homes in a given market in a given quarter and the median sales price of the previous sale of those same homes, expressed both in a dollar amount and as a percentage of the previous median sales price.

Institutional investor purchases: residential property sales to non-lending entities that purchased at least 10 properties in a calendar year.

REO sale: a sale of a property that occurs while the property is actively bank owned (REO).

About ATTOM
ATTOM provides premium property data and analytics that power a myriad of solutions that improve transparency, innovation, digitization and efficiency in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation's population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes, and enhances the real estate data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 30TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include ATTOM Cloud, bulk file licenses, property data APIs, real estate market trends, property navigator and more. Also, introducing our newest innovative solution, making property data more readily accessible and optimized for AI applications – AI-Ready Solutions.