HarrisX/Forbes Poll: Harris Resets the Race, Narrows Trump's Post-Convention Lead Significantly

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Jul 26, 2024, 16:48 ET

Trump's lead on Harris is now 2-percentage points among Registered Voters and 3-percent with Likely Voters

Harris has consolidated the Democratic base, winning back lapsed independent and suburban women, and nearly half of previously undecided voters; She continues to struggle with African American men.

Electoral race is fluid as one-in-four voters say they could still change their mind.

WASHINGTON, July 26, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- A new poll released today by HarrisX and Forbes shows a newly competitive race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump. Forty-seven percent of registered voters support Trump while 45% say they would vote for Harris. Among likely voters, the former president leads Harris 49% to 46%.

Forbes logo (PRNewsfoto/HarrisX)

That marks a significant change in the race. Immediately prior to President Joe Biden stepping aside, Trump was leading Biden by 8 percentage points among registered voters (48% to 40%) and 10 points among likely voters (49% to 39%). Trump was also leading Harris by nine percentage points (50% to 41%) among registered voters and by a double-digit margin among likely voters (51% to 40%). The vice president has now narrowed the gap, in large part by winning 46% of voters who were undecided when the choice was between Biden and Trump.

The HarrisX/Forbes poll, which was conducted July 22-25, 2024 among 3,013 registered voters via the HarrisX Overnight Poll, shows Harris surging with independent voters and suburban women (full data available at elections.harrisx.com). While Biden was losing independents to Trump by a 13-percentage point margin (31% to 44%), Harris trails just by two percentage points (40% to Trump's 42%). Among suburban women, the vice president leads Trump by 12 percentage points (52% to 40%) compared to just a 3-percentage point lead held by President Biden (44% to Trump's 41%).

Additionally, Harris has quickly consolidated the Biden base, with 95% of voters who had planned to support Biden sticking with the vice president. Only 3% of Biden voters are now planning to vote for Trump. However, the new presumptive Democratic nominee continues to struggle with African American men, winning just 57% of this key group, compared to 30% of Black men who plan to support Donald Trump.

The data shows the race can still change significantly. One in four (25%) registered voters, including 23% of Harris supporters and 17% of Trump voters say they are still weighing their choices for the November election.

"Kamala Harris has officially reset the race, erasing much of Donald Trump's post-convention gains. Harris is still behind Trump, and it will take time for the numbers to fully settle, but one thing is clear: almost a week after Biden's decision to step aside, it's now again a competitive race," said Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX and lead pollster. "Vice President Harris has energized the Democratic base, growing the lead with suburban women and closing the gap with independents; but she is still struggling with African American men, and Trump overall still has a more consolidated base of voters."

"Voters, however, do not know the new Democratic nominee as well as they know Mr. Trump. That presents an opportunity and a threat to the Harris campaign, depending on whether she moves to the center to win swing and moderate voters, or moves to the left of Biden to appease the Democratic base," added Nesho.

The close race is also reflected by the fact that the two candidates have nearly identical favorability ratings. Trump and Harris are each viewed favorably by 44% of the electorate while 50% view the former president unfavorably and 49% say the same about the vice president. However, suburban women like Harris (49% favorable – 43% unfavorable) significantly more than Trump (36% favorable – 59% unfavorable).

The data shows a broad consensus that President Biden did the right thing by stepping aside, with 81% of voters approving of his decision. That includes strong majorities of Democrats (90%), independents (79%) and Republicans (75%). Similarly, Democrats are overwhelmingly supportive of Biden endorsing his VP (90% approve). However, only just half (54%) of independents and merely 22% of Republicans approve of the endorsement.

Just 27% of voters say that Biden's withdrawal is undemocratic ignores the will of the 14 million Democratic primary voters. Instead, 89% of Democrats, 72% of independents, and 58% of Republicans say the president's withdrawal demonstrates that Biden was listening to voters and the recent polling that was showing most Democrats wanting the incumbent to drop out.
HarrisX data is tracked and updated daily at elections.harrisx.com.

Survey Methodology
This survey was conducted online within the United States July 22-25, 2024, among 3,013 registered voters via the HarrisX Overnight Poll. Respondents for the HarrisX Overnight Poll are recruited through opt-in, web-panel recruitment sampling. Recruitment occurs through a broad variety of professional, validated respondent panels to expand the sampling frame as wide as possible and minimize the impact of any given panel on recruiting methods.

The results reflect a nationally representative sample of registered voters. Results were weighted for age, gender, region, race/ethnicity, income, political party, education, ideology and area type where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 1.8 percentage points.

About HarrisX & the HarrisX Overnight Poll
HarrisX, a Stagwell company, is a leading global market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method consumer and voter research across the U.S. and over 40 countries. With offices in Washington, D.C., New York City, London and Toronto, HarrisX advises Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs, and philanthropic organizations. According to The Washington Post and American Research Group, HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The HarrisX Overnight Poll runs 365 days a year in the United States as an omnibus survey; for more information email [email protected]

About Forbes:
Forbes champions success by celebrating those who have made it, and those who aspire to make it. Forbes convenes and curates the most influential leaders and entrepreneurs who are driving change, transforming business and making a significant impact on the world. The Forbes brand today reaches more than 140 million people worldwide through its trusted journalism, signature LIVE and Forbes Virtual events, custom marketing programs and 43 licensed local editions in 69 countries. Forbes Media's brand extensions include real estate, education and financial services license agreements.

SOURCE HarrisX