Global Construction: 2020's Outperformance Unlikely to be Sustained

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Jan 05, 2021, 06:00 ET

LONDON, Jan. 5, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- 2020 was a better year for construction than for many other industries according to the latest Global Construction 2030^[1] report. The volume of global construction output declined by only around 2% in 2020, less than half the rate of decline in the world economy. Construction was categorised as an essential industry in most countries, enabling it to continue working during lockdowns. Also, "work at home" orders encouraged people to invest more in their own houses.

Change in Importance of Top 12 Construction Markets Between 2020 and 2030 (Constant prices and exchange rates): China is forecast to remain the largest construction market globally, but to decline in importance from 32.0% of the global total in 2020 to 29.2% in 2030. India is forecast to overtake Japan to become the third largest market and Indonesia is forecast to become the sixth largest. Source: Global Construction Perspectives

Amongst the 90 countries included in the report, 16 had a double-digit percentage declines in their construction volumes in 2020; with Panama (-30%), Singapore (-25%) and the Philippines (-22%) suffering the largest falls. Only Saudi Arabia (+15%) had a double-digit percentage increase.

Construction is likely to underperform the global economy in future years, particularly as it's more impacted by stretched public finances, despite many countries announcing increased infrastructure investment.

During the next two years, as the world recovers from COVID, we expect construction volumes globally to increase by an average of 3.2% a year, with double-digit percentage increases in seven countries and declines in only three countries, all of which are in Europe.

Over the longer term (2023 to 2030) we forecast that the volume of construction output will increase by an average of 2.3% a year globally, with annual growth rates varying between a decline in Japan (-0.5% p.a.) to increases exceeding 8% a year in Tanzania (+8.4% p.a.), Ethiopia (+8.4% p.a.) and Bangladesh (+8.0% p.a.).

We estimate that the value of global construction output in US$ at constant exchange rates and in 2020 prices will increase from $11.6 trillion in 2020 to around $14.8 trillion in 2030, a growth rate averaging 2.5% a year. We expect China to remain the largest construction market globally, but to decline in importance from 32.0% of the global total in 2020 to 29.2% in 2030. We also expect Japan's contribution to the total to decline from 7.0% in 2020 to 5.4% in 2030, when we forecast that it will be overtaken by India as it becomes the third largest construction market globally. We expect Indonesia to surpass France and Australia to become the sixth largest construction market in 2030, with France dropping from the sixth largest in 2020 to the eighth largest in 2030.

Around 43 million new homes will be required each year globally between 2020 and 2030, with 11 million of these being in India, 7 million in China, 2m in Nigeria and 1.5 million in the US. Brazil, Pakistan and Indonesia are also each expected to require more than a million new homes every year.

1. www.globalconstruction2030.com for report. Separate forecasts are published for housing, non-housing and infrastructure work for 63 of the 90 countries.

Contact:
Dr Mike Betts,
Global Construction Perspectives,
Mobile +447833431682.
E-mail: [email protected]

SOURCE Global Construction Perspectives