Frustration Evident in Consumer Housing Sentiment

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Aug 07, 2024, 08:30 ET

Only 17% Say It's a 'Good Time' to Buy, Despite Known Aspiration to Own

WASHINGTON, Aug. 7, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Home Purchase Sentiment Index^® (HPSI) decreased 1.1 points in July to 71.5, as an overall lack of affordability continues to hamstring consumer sentiment toward the housing market. This month, only 17% of consumers indicated that it's a good time to buy a home, down from 19% in June, while the share believing it's a good time to sell decreased from 66% to 65%. The shares expecting home prices to rise versus fall over the next 12 months converged but remain some distance apart at 41% and 21%, respectively. Twenty-nine percent of consumers expect mortgage rates to decrease over the next 12 months, while 31% expect them to increase. The full index is up 4.7 points year over year.

"While we're seeing signs that affordability may be improving in certain parts of the country as supply slowly comes online, household incomes remain stretched relative to would-be mortgage or rent payments, and our latest survey once again reflects real consumer frustration with the housing market," said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "Our recently published Mortgage Understanding Study reaffirmed what we've long known: that a significant majority of consumers want to own a home. However, 82% told us in July that it's a 'bad time' to buy, a share that's remained consistent since January 2023, and these particular respondents continue to point to elevated prices and mortgage rates as the primary reasons for that belief. Meanwhile, there seems to be little expectation among the general population that homebuying conditions will improve in the near future: More consumers than not see home prices rising further; and slightly more consumers think mortgage rates will increase, rather than decrease, over the next 12 months."

Duncan continued: "We're currently forecasting home price growth to decelerate through next year and mortgage rates to average 6.2 percent by the fourth quarter of 2025 – and, like consumers, we continue to view affordability as the primary constraint to home sales activity. One data point we think bears monitoring: The share of respondents who say they would rent, rather than buy, on their next move has been trending slowly upward of late. Right now, it's difficult to tell if this reflects simple buyer fatigue or a greater sense of disenchantment with the market, but we think it could have important implications should the trend continue."

Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights

Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased 1.1 points in July to 71.5. The HPSI is up 4.7 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.

Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 19% to 17%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 81% to 82%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 1 percentage point month over month.
Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home decreased from 66% to 65%, while the percentage who say it's a bad time to sell increased from 33% to 34%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell decreased 2 percentage points month over month.
Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from 45% to 41%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down increased from 17% to 21%. The share who think home prices will stay the same increased from 36% to 37%. As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased 7 percentage points month over month.
Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months increased from 24% to 29%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up decreased from 33% to 31%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same decreased from 42% to 38%. As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 5 percentage points month over month.
Job Loss Concern: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from 79% to 77%, while the percentage who say they are concerned increased from 20% to 21%. As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job decreased 3 percentage points month over month.
Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased from 16% to 18%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from 10% to 11%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same decreased from 72% to 69%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased 1 percentage point month over month.

About Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index
The Home Purchase Sentiment Index^® (HPSI) distills information about consumers' home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey^® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers' current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers' evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher than they were a year earlier.

About Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey
The National Housing Survey (NHS) is a monthly attitudinal survey, launched in 2010, which polls the adult general population of the United States to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, purchase and rental prices, household finances, and overall confidence in the economy. Each respondent is asked more than 100 questions, making the NHS one of the most detailed attitudinal longitudinal surveys of its kind, to track attitudinal shifts, six of which are used to construct the HPSI (findings are compared with the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). For more information, please see the Technical Notes.

Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to support the housing market. The July 2024 National Housing Survey was conducted between July 1, 2024 and July 19, 2024. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. The latest NHS was conducted exclusively through AmeriSpeak^®, NORC at the University of Chicago's probability-based panel, in coordination with Fannie Mae and PSB Insights. Calculations are made using unrounded and weighted respondent level data to help ensure precision in NHS results from wave to wave. As a result, minor differences in calculated data (summarized results, net calculations, etc.) of up to 1 percentage point may occur due to rounding.

Detailed HPSI & NHS Findings
For detailed findings from the Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results.

To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.

About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Doug Duncan, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets. The ESR Group was awarded the prestigious 2022 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy based on the accuracy of its macroeconomic forecasts published over the 4-year period from 2018 to 2021.

About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:

Fannie Mae Newsroom
https://www.fanniemae.com/news

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Fannie Mae Resource Center
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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group or survey respondents included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group or survey respondents as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

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