Foreign Exchange Pros Say NAFTA Is Biggest Threat To Peso

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Mar 27, 2018, 10:50 ET

NEW YORK and MEXICO CITY, March 27, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is the top macro-economic issue that will affect the Mexican peso this year, according to the results of a Bloomberg foreign exchange (FX) survey announced today.

More than 100 financial professionals responded to a poll at Bloomberg's recent FX18 Mexico City event, with nearly half (46 percent) saying that NAFTA is the macro-economic factor that will have the biggest impact on the peso. Less, or 34 percent, of attendees said that the peso would be most affected by the presidential election on July 1.

When asked what they expect the exchange rate between the dollar and the peso (USD/MXN) to be by the end of 2018, the majority (71 percent) said it would be between 18.00 and 20.00. Only 17 percent said it would be higher than 20.00 and 12 percent, below 18.00.

Interest rates in Mexico will be between seven and eight percent by the end of this year said the majority (66 percent) of the respondents. Only 28 percent said above eight percent and fewer still (6 percent) said below seven percent.

On the FX Global Code of Conduct, Mexican financial professionals were mixed -- 40 percent said they are reviewing the guidelines, but 39 percent said they will not endorse the Code. Only eight percent said they had signed the letter of commitment and 12 percent have implemented Code training.

"What the survey results tell us is that many people still do not understand what the FX Global Code of Conduct is and does," said Mariana Suarez, Bloomberg's Head of Sales for Mexico and Central America. "We are proud to have signed the letter of commitment and are working closely with our clients to explain the importance of the Code's voluntary guidelines for best FX market practices."

Meanwhile, FX electronic trading is gaining acceptance in Mexico with 60 percent of the attendees saying they use it, while 40 percent said they do not do so yet.

Bloomberg's electronic currency trading platform, FXGO, sponsored the event that attracted more than 100 currency strategists and FX market analysts and traders to the Westin Hotel on March 14.

FXGO is the leading multi-bank foreign exchange platform used by corporations, global and regional banks, investment management firms and pension funds. They use it for execution of spot, outright, swap, non-deliverable forwards (NDF), deposit, order and option transactions and is included with a Bloomberg Terminal subscription. FXGO connects more than 500 major and regional liquidity providers worldwide, allowing in-depth price discovery for regulated and unregulated markets.

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SOURCE Bloomberg