Existing Home Sales Momentum Will Continue Into April, According To Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast
Auction.com Model Projects April Sales to Come in at 5.31 Million Units (SAAR), and Median Sales Price at $211,633
IRVINE, Calif. and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., April 22, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Auction.com, LLC, the nation's leading online real estate marketplace, has released its April Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast which projects that existing home sales for the month of April will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.15 and 5.47 million annual sales, with a targeted number of 5.31 million – up 2.3 percent from March and 11.8 percent from a year ago.
"Among the factors contributing to the jump in March's existing home sales, pent-up demand from weak sales in January and February probably played a significant role," explained Auction.com Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. "Consumer psychology is likely also at play here: with talk of the Fed hiking interest rates as early as June, buyers who've been sitting on the sidelines may have decided to buy now and lock in today's historically low interest rates."
But, he also issued a reminder to keep the recent data in perspective, noting, "While the surge in home sales is indeed welcome news to the housing market, it's important to keep the March numbers in context: in a truly healthy housing market, we'd be on pace for 6 million existing home sales. All March did was get us more or less back into the 5 million range, where we'll probably remain for the next year."
Findings from the Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast suggest that sales prices for existing homes will fall between $201,052 and $222,215 during the month of April, with a targeted price of $211,633. This represents a 5 percent year-over-year increase for the month.
Earlier today, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) released its existing home sales data for March, reporting that home sales increased to 5.19 million units – well above what analysts expected, but within the range of 4.90 to 5.22 million units predicted by the Auction.com model on April 1. NAR also reported a March increase in existing home prices to $212,100 – within the range of $193,956 - $214,373 that Auction.com predicted last month and indicating a 7.8 percent increase compared to a year ago.
"Despite some wobbles in recent macroeconomic indicators, we've seen indications of an improved US labor market, suggesting a firmer foundation for growth. These indicators include not only headline employment growth and unemployment rates, but also the pace of voluntary quits, the stabilization of labor force participation and even some nascent signs of stirring wage growth," said Auction.com Chief Economist Peter Muoio. "The improved labor market is an essential underlying footing for healthy home sales, and March's results – and more broadly the green shoots of housing sales and price strength – appear to bear this out."
About the Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast Model
The Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Auction.com's nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.
Auction.com will occasionally update its nowcast as fresh data provides additional signals for current home sales activity. The Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast model has proven highly accurate over the course of 2014 and into 2015.
Existing Home Sales
| Month |
Reported Existing Home Sales (in millions) |
Auction.com Point Estimate (SAR in millions) |
Auction.com Predicted Range (SAR in millions) |
| January 2014 |
4.62 |
4.91 |
4.72 – 5.11 |
| February 2014 |
4.60 |
4.72 |
4.54 – 4.91 |
| March 2014 |
4.70 |
4.64 |
4.49 – 4.80 |
| April 2014 |
4.75 |
4.78 |
4.62 – 4.94 |
| May 2014 |
4.90 |
4.81 |
4.65 – 4.97 |
| June 2014 |
5.01 |
5.05 |
4.94 – 5.17 |
| July 2014 |
5.07 |
5.11 |
4.99 – 5.22 |
| August 2014 |
5.00 |
5.19 |
5.09 – 5.30 |
| September 2014 |
5.10 |
5.08 |
4.91 – 5.24 |
| October 2014 |
5.16 |
5.13 |
4.96 – 5.3 |
| November 2014 |
4.95 |
5.16 |
4.99 – 5.33 |
| December 2014 |
5.07 |
5.03 |
4.85 – 5.21 |
| January 2015 |
4.82 |
5.01 |
4.83 – 5.19 |
| February 2015 |
4.89 |
5.03 |
4.87 – 5.19 |
| March 2015 |
5.19 |
5.06 |
4.90 - 5.22 |
| April 2015 |
TBD |
5.31 |
5.15 – 5.47 |
Sources: Google, NAR, Auction.com
Existing Home Sales Pricing
| Month |
Reported Existing Home Price |
YoY % Change |
Auction.com Point Estimate |
YoY % Change |
Auction.com Predicted Range |
| January 2014 |
$187,900 |
10.1% |
$194,662 |
9.2% |
$184,841 - $204,772 |
| February 2014 |
$188,400 |
8.8% |
$189,743 |
8.8% |
$180,469 - $199,308 |
| March 2014 |
$196,700 |
6.9% |
$190,991 |
3.8% |
$181,441 - $200,540 |
| April 2014 |
$201,500 |
5.1% |
$196,815 |
2.6% |
$186,974 - $206,656 |
| May 2014 |
$212,000 |
4.4% |
$202,179 |
-0.5% |
$192,070 - $212,287 |
| June 2014 |
$222,000 |
3.7% |
$211,753 |
-1.0% |
$201,166 - $222,341 |
| July 2014 |
$221,600 |
4.3% |
$219,381 |
3.3% |
$208,412 - $230,350 |
| August 2014 |
$218,400 |
4.1% |
$219,148 |
4.5% |
$208,190 - $230,105 |
| September 2014 |
$209,100 |
5.3% |
$214,433 |
8% |
$203,712 - $225,155 |
| October 2014 |
$207,500 |
5.1% |
$205,922 |
4.3% |
$195,626 - $216,218 |
| November 2014 |
$207,200 |
6% |
$204,204 |
4.5% |
$193,993 - $214,414 |
| December 2014 |
$208,200 |
5.3% |
$205,783 |
4.1% |
$195,493 - $216,072 |
| January 2015 |
$197,600 |
6.2% |
$205,126 |
9.2% |
$194,869 - $215,382 |
| February 2015 |
$201,900 |
7.2% |
$201,077 |
6.7% |
$191,023 - $211,131 |
| March 2015 |
$212,100 |
7.8% |
$204,165 |
3.8% |
$193,956 - $214,373 |
| April 2015 |
TBD |
TBD |
$211,633 |
5% |
$201,052 - $222,215 |
Sources: Google, NAR, Auction.com
About Auction.com:
Auction.com, LLC, is the nation's leading online real estate marketplace. Founded in 2007, the company has sold over $30 billion in residential and commercial real estate assets. Auction.com has over 900 employees and headquarters in Irvine and Silicon Valley, California as well as offices in Austin and Plano, Texas, Atlanta, Denver, New York and Miami. Visit www.auction.com for more information.
SOURCE Auction.com, LLC
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