DRG Forecasts Total US Personal Devices Unit Shipments Will Continue to Decline Over the Next Five Years

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Aug 29, 2023, 08:36 ET

BELMONT, Mass., Aug. 29, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Daniel Research Group, a market research firm specializing in forecasting technology markets announces the free availability of its updated U.S. Personal Devices 2022-2027 Forecast Report.

Market Overview

United Stated PC, Tablet and Mobile Phone Forecast

Personal Computers and Tablet Enterprise-Consumer Segment Shifts Before, During and After the Pandemic

DRG current forecast model projects that Unit Shipments for Consumer and Enterprise Personal Computing and Communication Devices will return to per pandemic replacement rates resulting in declining Unit Shipments.

United States Total Personal Device Unit Shipments (M)
		2022	2023	*AGR*	2027	*CAGR '22-'27*
Desktop PCs
	Desktop PCs	16.1	13.5	-16.2 %	13.9	-2.8 %
Mobile PCs
	Traditional	49.0	44.0	-10.2 %	51.6	1.0 %
	Convertible	8.9	8.0	-9.5 %	8.6	-0.6 %
Total Mobile PCs		57.9	52.0	-10.1 %	60.2	0.8 %

Total PCs		73.9	65.5	-11.4 %	74.1	0.0 %
Tablets
	Detachable	25.2	23.0	-8.8 %	24.6	-0.5 %
	Slate	27.0	16.4	-39.4 %	11.0	-16.5 %
Total Tablets		52.2	39.4	-24.6 %	35.6	-7.4 %

Total PCs and Tablets		126.1	104.8	-16.9 %	109.7
Mobile Phones
	Standard Phones	4.1	4.9	21.2 %	1.9	-14.2 %
	Smartphones	140.2	124.1	-11.5 %	106.2	-5.4 %
Total Mobile Phones		144.3	129.0	-10.6 %	108.0	-5.6 %
Total
Total Personal Devices		270.4	233.8	-13.5 %	217.7	-4.2 %
∞∫∆ Daniel Research Group© (2023)

The major forecasting challenge over the past three years has been understanding the disruptive changes to household and business computing and communication personal device demand caused by the pandemic and subsequent policies and procedures designed to mitigate its damaging effects. That period is now over and the new challenge is to understand the rate at which demand behavior will return to pre-pandemic levels and trends. The most important causal factors influencing the forecasts are the economy, the pandemic induced segment split, and the return to pre pandemic replacement rates.

US Economy: DRG's current United States economic model is in line with most public published forecast that predict a "soft landing" with no recession. However, we are predicting that the unemployment rate will increase over the forecast period over its current level. Our models also predict that total average employment in 2024 will slightly decline over 2023 levels before resuming slow growth in the subsequent years.

Segment Shift: One of the most significant changes to the United States Personal Device market caused by the pandemic was the Segment shift from Enterprise to Consumer.

All three product categories saw the Consumer share of the market gain at the expense of the Enterprise share. The primary driver being the increase in demand to support Work From Home, Learn from Home, and Home Entertainment use cases during the pandemic. While we expect the Segment splits for Desktops and Mobile PCs to begin to return to historic levels. Tablets will continue to gain consumer share.

Replacement Rates: With both Penetration (Adoption) and Density (Units per Household or Business) following long-term stable trends, the primary demand driver will be Replacement Rates.

Causal factors influencing an increase in replacement rates:

The end of support for Windows 10 driving an increase in demand for new Desktops and Mobile PCs running Windows 11.
Return to Work requiring businesses to reprovision many of the returning employees.
Replacement for Chromebooks that have a shorter mean time to failures than other Personal Computers.

Causal factors influencing a decrease in replacement rates:

Economic uncertainty about

Inflation, Prices
Credit, Interest Rates
Employment

Many of the additional devices purchased during the pandemic still support use cases that are not ready for replacement.
The continuing decrease in the number of businesses.
Election Year: Negative economic forecasts as part of one of the political party's messaging will influence buyers to postpone spending.
Return to pre-pandemic purchasing behaviors.

Our conclusion is that the influencing factors driving a slowing of replacement rates outweighs the influencing factors driving an increase in replacement rates. We expect Replacement Rates for most product/segment cases to slow over the forecast period resulting in the Replacement Cycle Lengths (RCLs) increasing.

About Daniel Research Group
DRG is a market research and consulting firm servicing technology clients. Its primary focus is developing custom market models and forecasts utilizing proprietary methodologies and algorithms developed over more than 35 years, as well as traditional market research methodologies.

Contact
Steve Daniel, President
Daniel Research Group
(617) 484 – 6225
[email protected]
www.DanielResearchGroup.com

SOURCE Daniel Research Group