DRG Forecasts PCs and Tablets Shipments Will Continue to Slowly Decrease, Until 2023
BELMONT, Mass., Dec. 10, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Daniel Research Group, a market research firm specializing in forecasting technology markets announces the availability of its updated U.S. Personal Devices 2019-2023 Forecast Report. The report is available on DRG's website, www.DanielResearchGroup.com.
Market Overview
While Unit Shipments this year were driven by Windows 7 to 10 migration, Unit Shipments of PCs and Tablets will continue to decline slowly over the next four years as both Households and Business consolidate computing devices. Growth will resume in 2023.
United States Total Personal Device Unit Shipments (M) |
||||||
2018 |
2019 |
AGR |
2023 |
CAGR '18-'23 |
||
Desktop PCs |
||||||
Desktop PCs |
16.8 |
17.9 |
6.6% |
17.1 |
0.3% |
|
Mobile PCs |
||||||
Traditional |
41.1 |
41.5 |
1.0% |
39.4 |
-0.9% |
|
Convertible |
6.5 |
6.5 |
-0.6% |
16.8 |
21.0% |
|
Total Mobile PCs |
47.6 |
48.0 |
0.8% |
56.2 |
3.4% |
|
Total PCs |
64.4 |
65.9 |
2.3% |
73.3 |
2.6% |
|
Tablets |
||||||
Detachable |
7.2 |
12.3 |
71.3% |
10.7 |
8.3% |
|
Slate |
33.0 |
33.1 |
0.1% |
26.0 |
-4.7% |
|
Total Tablets |
40.2 |
45.4 |
12.9% |
36.7 |
-1.8% |
|
Total PCs and Tablets |
104.6 |
111.3 |
6.4% |
110.0 |
1.0% |
|
Mobile Phones |
||||||
Standard Phones |
7.2 |
6.5 |
-9.0% |
0.5 |
-41.4% |
|
Smartphones |
163.3 |
152.6 |
-6.6% |
179.0 |
1.9% |
|
Total Mobile Phones |
170.5 |
159.1 |
-6.7% |
179.5 |
1.0% |
|
Total |
||||||
Total Personal Devices |
275.2 |
270.4 |
-1.7% |
289.5 |
1.0% |
|
∞∫∆ Daniel Research Group © (2019) |
||||||
The US Economy
Most economists are forecasting a continuation of our current slow growth in GDP and employment as the most likely scenario over the next five years. Stable growth periods increase demand for PCs, Tablets, and Mobile Phones. However, structural changes in the economic demographics will influence how demand will be distributed. DRG develops and continually updates its own US Business Economic Demographic Database (BEDD) to forecast the Total Available Market in the Enterprise Sector.
While the number of employees will grow over the next five years, the number of businesses will slightly decrease. In the Consumer sector, while the number of households will increase, the resident size of the households will slightly decrease
Replacement Rates
Replacement rates increase in economic growth periods, decease in down turns. With the current outlook uncertain, and no compelling new product or technology anticipated other than 5G, we have chosen to take a conservative approach. DRG is forecasting a slight increase in the rate that users replace their personal computing devices in 2019 to 2022, driven by normal failure rates and emerging new use-case, with replacement rates slowing again starting in 2023.
Mobile Computing Trends
The balance between fix computing devices (Desktop PCs) and mobile computing devices (Mobile PCs and Tablets) has been stable for some time and will continue as the core base of users and use-cases that require the power of an on-premise Desktop PCs is reached. However, Mobile PCs will increase share of Total Mobile Devices at the expense of Tablets. Hybrid PCs will increase share of Mobile Devices and Convertible Mobile PCs will increase share of Hybrids.
While the preference for mobile vs. fixed computing devices will continue to increase in both segments, there are difference in form factor preference. Enterprises prefer Convertible Mobile PCs that are better suited for productivity increasing use-cases. Consumer prefer Detachable Tablets that are better suited to meet content delivery, social media, and life management use-cases.
About Daniel Research Group
DRG is a market research and consulting firm servicing technology clients. Its primary focus is developing custom market models and forecasts utilizing proprietary methodologies and algorithms developed over more than 30 years. The forecasts in this report were developed using DRG's EquilibriumSolver (EQS) methodology and application. To learn more about EQS, click on these links – Fact Sheet: White Paper:
Contact
Steve Daniel, President
Daniel Research Group
(617) 484 – 6225
[email protected]
www.DanielResearchGroup.com
SOURCE Daniel Research Group
Related Links
http://www.DanielResearchGroup.com
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