Despite Memorial Day Sales, New-car Sales To Decrease 6 Percent In May 2016, According To Kelley Blue Book

General Motors among Largest Sales Declines on Rental Reduction Strategy; Top Compact Car Models to Report Double-Digit Sales Declines

News provided by

Kelley Blue Book

May 26, 2016, 12:54 ET

IRVINE, Calif., May 26, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales are expected to decrease 6 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.53 million units in May 2016, resulting in an estimated 17.4 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry.

"This month's sales results are set to fall year-over-year with two fewer selling days combined with retail demand that is holding steady, but not growing," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "While this year may not bring the growth the industry has become accustomed to, it is important to remember that sales are still at record levels and economic factors point to continued strength in the near future."

After the highest U.S. sales total in 2015, Kelley Blue Book's 2016 forecast calls for sales in the range of 17.5 to 18 million, which could result either in a flat year or another record for the automotive industry.

Key Highlights for Estimated May 2016 Sales Forecast:

In May 2016, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,530,000 units, down 6 percent from May 2015 and up 2 percent from April 2016.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for May 2016 is estimated to be 17.4 million, down from 17.6 million in May 2015 and up from 17.3 million in April 2016.
Retail sales are expected to account for 79.1 percent of volume in May 2016, down from 80.5 percent in May 2015.

General Motors among Largest Sales Declines on Rental Reduction Strategy
"General Motors is expected to report one of the largest sales declines of all major manufacturers in May 2016," said Fleming. "GM has been outspoken about its rental reduction strategy, which accounts for much of the drop in volume and will impact sales totals on the company's high rental units like the Chevrolet Cruze, Impala and Equinox. GM is keeping the end-game in mind here; by reducing the volume of GM vehicles in rental fleets, the company will eventually see strengthened residual values."

Nissan North America could see the greatest gain in market share this month, with perhaps the biggest gain coming from the redesigned Maxima. The bold styling of the Maxima has brought some success since its introduction last year, even though the full-size car segment remains in decline. The similarly styled Murano crossover should have a good month as well, with anticipated growth of roughly 10 percent.

	Sales Volume ¹			Market Share ²
Manufacturer	May-16	May-15	YOY %	May-16	May-15	YOY %
General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	258,000	293,097	-12.0%	16.9%	18.0%	-1.1%
Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)	233,000	250,086	-6.8%	15.2%	15.3%	-0.1%
Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	223,000	242,579	-8.1%	14.6%	14.9%	-0.3%
Fiat Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM)	198,000	202,227	-2.1%	12.9%	12.4%	0.5%
American Honda (Acura, Honda)	153,000	154,593	-1.0%	10.0%	9.5%	0.5%
Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)	135,000	134,779	0.2%	8.8%	8.3%	0.6%
Hyundai-Kia	115,000	126,043	-8.8%	7.5%	7.7%	-0.2%
Subaru of America	50,000	49,561	0.9%	3.3%	3.0%	0.2%
Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche)	49,500	57,454	-13.8%	3.2%	3.5%	-0.3%
Total ³	1,530,000	1,631,234	-6.2%	-	-	-
¹Historical data from OEM sales announcements
² Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
³ Includes brands not shown

Top Compact Car Models to Report Double-Digit Sales Declines
The compact car segment could dip by a percentage point of market share in May 2016, as consumers continue to prefer purchasing small crossovers instead. The Honda Civic is a highlight for this segment, but Kelley Blue Book expects most of the top compact car segment models to report double-digit sales declines.

Full-size trucks could rise in share in May 2016, aided by incentives on certain vehicles. However, overall incentive levels remain historically moderate, especially considering the rising transaction prices and profit margins on these units. Ford's F-Series remains at the top of the segment, while keeping incentives lower than most of its competitors.

	Sales Volume ¹			Market Share
Segment	May-16	May-15	YOY %	May-16	May-15	YOY %
Compact SUV/Crossover	258,000	274,673	-6.1%	16.9%	16.8%	0.0%
Mid-Size Car	205,000	235,871	-13.1%	13.4%	14.5%	-1.1%
Compact Car	203,000	231,390	-12.3%	13.3%	14.2%	-0.9%
Full-Size Pickup Truck	180,000	185,269	-2.8%	11.8%	11.4%	0.4%
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover	171,000	181,457	-5.8%	11.2%	11.1%	0.1%
Total ²	1,530,000	1,631,234	-6.2%	-	-	-
¹ Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
² Includes segments not shown

There are 24 sales days in May 2016, compared to 26 sales days in May 2015. All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

To discuss this topic, or any other automotive-related information, with a Kelley Blue Book analyst on-camera via the company's on-site studio, please contact a member of the Public Relations team to book an interview.

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About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new and used cars this week. The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies. Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com ranked highest in its category for brand equity by the 2015 Harris Poll EquiTrend^® study and has been named Online Auto Shopping Brand of the Year for four consecutive years. Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a Cox Automotive™ brand.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive Inc. is transforming the way the world buys, sells and owns cars with industry-leading digital marketing, software, financial, wholesale and e-commerce solutions for consumers, dealers, manufacturers and the overall automotive ecosystem worldwide. Committed to open choice and dedicated to strong partnerships, the Cox Automotive family includes Autotrader®, Dealer.com®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, vAuto®, Xtime® and a host of other brands. The global company has nearly 30,000 team members in more than 200 locations and is partner to more than 40,000 auto dealers, as well as most major automobile manufacturers, while engaging U.S. consumer car buyers with the most recognized media brands in the industry. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., an Atlanta-based company with revenues of $18 billion and approximately 55,000 employees. Cox Enterprises' other major operating subsidiaries include Cox Communications and Cox Media Group. For more information about Cox Automotive, visit www.coxautoinc.com.

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SOURCE Kelley Blue Book