Demand to Return to the Nickel Market in 2010
LONDON, January 12 /PRNewswire/ --
- Roskill Information Services
- Nickel: Market Outlook to 2014 (12th Edition, 2010)
The fallout from the financial crisis that afflicted the world economy has seen nickel prices fluctuate wildly. LME prices peaked at just over US$52,000/t in May 2007, on the back of strong demand and low stocks, but had fallen by over 80% by the end of 2008, as demand collapsed. By the fourth quarter of 2009, however, prices had recovered to US$18,500/t.
The fall in nickel prices has been largely due to a collapse in demand. Data for the first nine-months for 2009 shows nickel consumption at the world level has declined by 9% year-on-year, as end-users aggressively cut inventories. Output of nickel has also declined sharply. For the first three quarters of 2009, nickel mine production fell by 18% year-on-year, while primary production was down by 6%. Producers responded quickly to the fall in demand, with around a quarter of all production suspended during the first half of 2009.
While both demand and production of nickel declined in 2009, stocks at the LME built up steadily. At the end of December 2009, official stocks at LME warehouses totalled in excess of 150,000t. To put this into perspective, when nickel prices surged to above US$50,000/t, LME stocks totalled 4,700t.
Nickel demand driven by China
The nickel market overall has seen strong growth in demand. For the period 2000 to 2006, when demand peaked, consumption at the world level increased at an annual average rate of 3.8%. Although consumption increased across the world, China exhibited the largest growth. Between 2000 and 2009, its domestic demand is estimated to have risen by an annual average rate of almost 25%. This phenomenal growth has seen China become the world's largest consumer of nickel. In 1995 China accounted for a modest 4% of world consumption, increasing to almost 30% in 2008.
Demand for nickel is predominantly driven by stainless steel production, which accounts for around two-thirds of total nickel consumption. Production of crude stainless steel began falling as early as the third quarter of 2007. In 2008, output fell by 7% year-on-year, while the first three quarters of 2009 have seen production of crude stainless steel decline by around 15%, year-on-year.
The fall in production of stainless steel, however, has only taken place in developed economies. Emerging markets such as China and India have seen domestic output rise. The first three quarters of 2009, saw Chinese production rise by almost 20% year-on-year, while for the year, China is forecast to produce 8-9Mt.
At the world level, crude stainless steel production in 2009 is forecast to decline to around 25Mt. However, 2010 is expected to see an increase in demand and production, as world GDP recovers. Production of crude stainless steel is forecast to rise by around 8% in 2010.
New HPAL capacity to enter the market
In the first half of 2009, around a quarter of all production from 2008 was suspended - placed on care & maintenance. Major producers such as Norilsk Nickel, BHP Billiton, ValeInco and Xstrata have all had to curtail production, while strike action at ValeInco's operations in Canada has also limited output.
While most of the major nickel producers have cut output in order to stabilise prices, BHP Billiton has sold nickel assets, appearing to distance itself from the nickel market. The company sold its Ravensthorpe mine and Yabulu refinery in 2009.
The Ravensthorpe situation has attracted a lot of interest, as it is the first major nickel laterite production facility in a decade. Laterite projects have been a source of frustration in recent years, as the technology has not proved 100% efficient. The main extraction techniques are high pressure acid leaching (HPAL) and heap leaching. The HPAL technology has received much criticism in recent years, owing to its high cost and the wear-and-tear hot acid can cause to plant and equipment.
Even though some HPAL projects have had technical difficulties, however, there are nickel deposits that are able to use the technology successfully. The Moa Bay and Murrin Murrin deposits, in Cuba and Australia respectively, produce nickel on a regular basis, and new projects such as Goro, Vermelho and Ambatovy are due to come on-stream in the next few years. Given that around 70% of total world reserves are laterite deposits, it is not surprising that the vast majority of all announced future projects are based on laterites.
Nickel prices to remain stable throughout 2010
Although global demand for nickel has fallen for three consecutive years, a recovery in the global economy should follow through to see consumption of increase in 2010. Roskill forecasts nickel consumption will increase by around 7% in 2010.
The rise in demand for nickel in the coming years is primarily due to an increase in demand for stainless steel. Stainless steel production, the largest end-use for nickel, is forecast to reach 27Mt in 2010 (an 8% increase year-on-year), and almost 30Mt in 2011.
As demand for nickel increases across the globe, production is likely to follow suit. A market surplus of around 75,000t is forecast for 2010, as output of primary nickel increases to 1.4Mt.
Given the market surplus forecast to develop between 2010 and 2012, nickel prices are expected to be stable. The annual average price in 2010 is forecast to around US$20,000/t, and expected to rise in both 2011 and 2012. The average price between 2010 and 2012 is forecast at just over US$22,000/t.
Nickel: Market outlook to 2014 (12th Edition, 2010) is available at GBP3500 / US $7000 / 5600 Euros from Roskill Information Services Ltd, 27a Leopold Road, London SW19 7BB, England.
Table of Contents
1 Summary 1
2 History, properties, occurrence and resources of nickel 9
2.1 History 9
2.2 Properties 9
2.2.1 Health and environmental issues 10
2.3 Occurrence 11
2.3.1 Sulphide ores 12
2.3.2 Lateritic ores 13
2.4 Resources 15
2.4.1 Ocean floor resources 17
3 Mining, processing and refining of nickel 19
3.1 Mining 19
3.1.1 Mining of sulphide ores 19
3.1.2 Mining of laterite ores 19
3.2 Processing 20
3.2.1 Processing of sulphide concentrates 20
3.2.1.1 Pyrometallurgical processing of sulphide concentrates 21
3.2.1.2 Hydrometallurgical processing of sulphide concentrates 21
3.2.2 Processing of laterite ores 22
3.2.2.1 Pyrometallurgical processing of laterite ores 22
3.2.2.2 Hydrometallurgical processing of laterite ores 23
3.2.3 Matte refining 25
3.2.3.1 Pyrometallurgical matte refining 25
3.2.3.2 Hydrometallurgical matte refining 26
3.2.4 Nickel products 27
4 World nickel production and supply data 31
4.1 Mine production 31
4.2 Production of intermediate nickel products 37
4.3 Primary nickel production 38
4.4 Nickel production by company 45
5 Nickel production costs 49
5.1 Future nickel production costs 52
6 Review of nickel producing and processing countries 54
6.1 Albania 54
6.1.1 Kokogllave-Devolli project 54
6.2 Argentina 54
6.3 Australia 54
6.3.1 Nickel resources in Australia 57
6.3.2 Producers of nickel in Australia 57
6.3.2.1 Australian Mines 57
6.3.2.2 BHP Billiton 57
6.3.2.3 Fox Resources Limited 64
6.3.2.4 Minara Resources 65
6.3.2.5 Independence Group 66
6.3.2.6 Mincor Resources NL 67
6.3.2.7 MMC Norilsk Nickel 69
6.3.2.8 Panoramic Resources 72
6.3.2.9 Western Areas NL 74
6.3.2.10 Xstrata Plc 76
6.3.3 Potential Australian nickel producers 77
6.3.3.1 Australasian Resources Limited 77
6.3.3.2 Emu Nickel 77
6.3.3.3 Gladstone Pacific Nickel Project Limited (GPNL) 78
6.3.3.4 Heron Resources 78
6.3.3.5 Jervois Mining 79
6.3.3.6 Metallica Minerals Limited 79
6.3.3.7 Metals X Limited 79
6.3.3.8 Nickelore Limited 80
6.3.3.9 South Boulder Mines 80
6.4 Belgium 80
6.5 Botswana 80
6.5.1 Producers of nickel in Botswana 81
6.5.1.1 Bamangwato Concessions Limited (BCL) 81
6.5.1.2 Tati Nickel Mining Co. 81
6.5.2 Potential nickel producers in Botswana 81
6.5.2.1 Dikoloti Nickel Project 81
6.6 Brazil 82
6.6.1 Nickel resources in Brazil 83
6.6.2 Nickel producers in Brazil 84
6.6.2.1 Anglo American 84
6.6.2.2 Votorantim Group 84
6.6.2.3 Mirabela Nickel 85
6.6.3 Potential nickel producers in Brazil 86
6.6.3.1 Vale Inco 86
6.6.3.2 Xstrata 86
6.6.3.3 Horizonte Minerals 87
6.7 Burkina Faso 87
6.8 Burundi 87
6.8.1 Musongati nickel deposit 87
6.8.2 Muremera nickel deposit 88
6.9 Cameroon 89
6.1 Canada 89
6.10.1 Producers of nickel in Canada 91
6.10.1.1 FNX Mining 92
6.10.1.2 North American Palladium Ltd 92
6.10.1.3 Sherritt International Corporation 93
6.10.1.4 ValeInco 94
6.10.1.5 Xstrata Plc 97
6.10.2 Potential nickel producers in Canada 100
6.10.2.1 Canadian Royalties 100
6.10.2.2 Crowflight Minerals Inc. 101
6.10.2.3 Donner Metals 101
6.10.2.4 Mustang Minerals 102
6.10.2.5 Noront Resources 102
6.10.2.6 Nuinsco Resources Limited 102
6.10.2.7 Starfield Resources 103
6.10.2.8 Strongbow Exploration 103
6.10.2.9 Ursa Major Minerals Inc. 103
6.11 China 104
6.11.1 Producers of nickel in China 109
6.11.1.1 Jinchuan Non-Ferrous Metals Corp (JNMC) 109
6.11.1.2 Other Chinese nickel producers 111
6.12 Colombia 112
6.12.1 Producers of nickel in Colombia 112
6.12.1.1 Cerro Matoso SA (CMSA) 112
6.13 Cuba 113
6.13.1 Producers of nickel in Cuba 114
6.13.1.1 Cubaniquel 114
6.13.1.2 Moa Bay SA 115
6.13.2 Potential nickel producers in Cuba 116
6.14 Dominican Republic 116
6.15 Finland 117
6.15.1 Producers of nickel in Finland 118
6.15.1.1 Belvedere Resources 118
6.15.1.2 Boliden Harjavalta 119
6.15.1.3 Norilsk Nickel Finland 119
6.15.1.4 Talvivaara Mining 120
6.15.2 Potential nickel producers in Finland 120
6.16 France 121
6.16.1 Producers of nickel in France 122
6.16.1.1 Eramet 122
6.17 Germany 122
6.18 Greece 122
6.19 Greenland 124
6.19.1 Nickel deposits in Greenland 124
6.19.1.1 Ammassalik/Kitak 124
6.19.1.2 Giesecke 124
6.19.1.3 Maniitsoq 124
6.19.2 NunaMinerals A/S 124
6.2 Guatemala 125
6.20.1 Potential nickel producers in Guatemala 125
6.20.1.1 Fenix nickel project 125
6.20.1.2 Maya Niquel S.A. 126
6.21 India 126
6.22 Indonesia 127
6.22.1 Producers of nickel in Indonesia 129
6.22.1.1 P.T. Aneka Tambang 129
6.22.1.2 P.T. International Nickel Indonesia 130
6.22.2 Potential nickel producers in Indonesia 130
6.22.2.1 Weda Bay 130
6.22.2.2 Gag Island 131
6.22.2.3 La Sampala 131
6.22.2.4 Sulawesi Mining Investment 131
6.23 Ivory Coast 132
6.24 Japan 132
6.24.1 Producers of nickel in Japan 134
6.24.1.1 Hyuga Smelting Company Limited 134
6.24.1.2 Pacific Metals Company Ltd (Taiheiyo Kinzoku KK) 135
6.24.1.3 Sumitomo Metal Mining Company Ltd 135
6.24.1.4 Inco TNC Ltd 135
6.24.1.5 Nippon Yakin Kogyo Co Ltd 136
6.25 South Korea 136
6.25.1 Producers of nickel in South Korea 136
6.25.1.1 Korea Nickel Corp. 136
6.25.1.2 Société du Nickel de Nouville-Calédonie et Corée 137
6.25.2 Potential nickel producers in South Korea 137
6.26 Kosovo 137
6.26.1 Ferronikeli 137
6.27 Madagascar 138
6.28 New Caledonia 138
6.28.1 Producers of nickel in New Caledonia 141
6.28.1.1 Société Le Nickel - SLN 141
6.28.1.2 Independent nickel producers in New Caledonia 142
6.28.2 Potential nickel producers in New Caledonia 142
6.28.2.1 Goro 142
6.28.2.2 Koniambo 143
6.28.2.3 Nakety/Bogota 143
6.29 Norway 144
6.29.1 Mining of nickel in Norway 144
6.29.2 Producers of nickel in Norway 145
6.29.2.1 Xstrata Nikkelverk 145
6.29.3 Potential nickel producers in Norway 145
6.29.3.1 Blackstone Ventures 145
6.3 Papua New Guinea 145
6.30.1 Potential nickel producers in Papua New Guinea 145
6.30.1.1 Ramu Nickel Project 145
6.30.1.2 Mambare Nickel Deposit 146
6.31 Philippines 146
6.31.1 Producers of nickel in the Philippines 147
6.31.1.1 Nickel Asia Corporation 147
6.31.1.2 Coral Bay Nickel Corporation 149
6.31.1.3 Toledo Mining 149
6.31.1.4 Century Peak Metals 150
6.31.2 Potential nickel producers in the Philippines 150
6.31.2.1 Intex Resources 150
6.31.2.2 Pujada Nickel Project 150
6.31.2.3 Acoje & Zambales 151
6.31.2.4 Nonoc 151
6.31.2.5 Taganito 151
6.32 Russia 151
6.32.1 Resources of nickel in Russia 153
6.32.2 Producers of nickel in Russia 154
6.32.2.1 MMC Norilsk Nickel 154
6.32.2.2 Ufaleynickel 157
6.32.2.3 Rezh Nickel 157
6.32.2.4 Yuzhuralnickel 158
6.32.3 Potential nickel producers in Russia 158
6.32.3.1 Amur Minerals Corporation 158
6.33 South Africa 159
6.33.1 Producers of nickel in South Africa 160
6.33.1.1 Anglo Platinum 160
6.33.1.2 Impala Platinum Ltd 161
6.33.1.3 Lonmin Plc 161
6.33.1.4 Nkomati joint venture 162
6.33.2 Potential nickel producers in South Africa 162
6.33.2.1 Sheba's Ridge 162
6.34 Spain 163
6.35 Sweden 163
6.36 Tanzania 163
6.36.1 Potential nickel producers in Tanzania 164
6.36.1.1 Kabanga Nickel Project 164
6.36.1.2 Nachingwea Nickel Project 164
6.36.1.3 African Eagle Resources Plc 164
6.37 Turkey 165
6.38 UK 165
6.38.1 Producers of nickel in the UK 166
6.38.1.1 ValeInco 166
6.38.2 Potential nickel producers in the UK 166
6.38.2.1 Alba Mineral Resources 166
6.39 Ukraine 166
6.4 USA 167
6.40.1 Primary production 167
6.40.2 Secondary production 167
6.40.3 Potential nickel producers in the USA 167
6.40.3.1 Eagle Nickel Project 167
6.41 Venezuela 168
6.42 Vietnam 168
6.43 Zambia 169
6.44 Zimbabwe 169
6.44.1 Producers of nickel in Zimbabwe 170
6.44.1.1 Bindura Nickel Corp. 170
6.44.1.2 Rio Tinto Zimbabwe Ltd 171
6.44.1.3 Zimplats Holding Ltd 171
7 Consumption of nickel 172
7.1 Consumption of nickel by end-use 176
7.2 Outlook for nickel 178
8 End-uses for nickel 181
8.1 Use of nickel in stainless and heat resisting steels 181
8.1.1 Grades of stainless steel 181
8.1.2 Forms of nickel used in stainless steel 185
8.1.3 Production of stainless steel 187
8.1.3.1 Stainless steel production capacity 192
8.1.4 Consumption of stainless steel 197
8.1.5 End-uses for stainless steel 203
8.1.6 Consumption of nickel in stainless steel and outlook 206
8.1.6.1 Stainless steel market outlook 208
8.1.6.2 Future demand for nickel in stainless steel 213
8.2 Use of nickel in nickel alloys 215
8.2.1 Use of nickel in high performance alloys/superalloys 218
8.2.1.1 Nickel-base high performance alloys 219
8.2.1.2 Cobalt-base high performance alloys 220
8.2.1.3 Iron-base high performance alloys 221
8.2.1.4 High performance alloy processing technology 221
8.2.1.5 Recycling of HPA scrap 223
8.2.1.6 Consumption and markets for high performance alloys 224
8.2.2 Use of nickel in special performance alloys 232
8.2.2.1 Thermal expansion alloys 232
8.2.2.2 Electrical resistance alloys 233
8.2.2.3 Magnetic alloys 233
8.2.3 Use of nickel in general technical alloys 235
8.2.3.1 Nickel-copper alloys/cupro-nickel alloys 235
8.2.3.2 Coinage alloys 237
8.2.3.3 Copper-nickel-manganese (Constantan) 238
8.2.3.4 Nickel-copper-zinc 238
8.2.3.5 Aluminium-nickel 239
8.2.3.6 Aluminium bronzes 239
8.2.3.7 Phosnic bronzes 239
8.2.3.8 Bronze and brass casting alloys 239
8.2.3.9 Shape-memory-effect (SME) alloys 240
8.2.3.10 Nickel-chromium alloys 241
8.2.3.11 Nickel quaternary alloys 241
8.2.3.12 Ultra-high nickel alloys and nickel metal 241
8.2.3.13 Nickel alloy coatings and castings 242
8.2.4 Outlook for nickel in nickel alloys 242
8.3 Use of nickel in plating 244
8.3.1 Types of plating 244
8.3.1.1 Electroplating 244
8.3.1.2 Electroless (autocatalytic) plating 245
8.3.1.3 Selective plating 246
8.3.1.4 Immersion coating 246
8.3.1.5 Electroforming 246
8.3.2 Applications of industrial nickel plating and coating 247
8.3.3 Outlook for nickel in plating 248
8.4 Use of nickel in other alloy steels 248
8.4.1 Full alloy steels 249
8.4.1.1 Structural or alloy engineering steels 250
8.4.1.2 Maraging steels 250
8.4.1.3 Carbide strengthened steels 251
8.4.2 Tool steels 251
8.4.3 Lean steels 251
8.4.4 Bearing steels 252
8.4.5 Other full alloy steels 252
8.4.6 Outlook for nickel in other alloy steels 253
8.5 Use of nickel in batteries 253
8.5.1 Types of nickel-containing batteries 253
8.5.1.1 Nickel-cadmium batteries 254
8.5.1.2 Nickel-metal hydride batteries 256
8.5.1.3 Nickel hydrogen batteries 256
8.5.1.4 Nickel-zinc cells 257
8.5.1.5 Nickel-iron cells 257
8.5.1.6 Sodium nickel chloride batteries 258
8.5.2 Production and markets for secondary batteries 258
8.5.3 Outlook for nickel in batteries 260
8.6 Use of nickel in catalysts 261
8.6.1 Markets for nickel in catalysts 262
8.7 Use of nickel in chemical uses 263
8.7.1 Ceramics and glass 263
8.7.2 Dyes and pigments 263
8.8 Use of nickel in cast iron 263
8.8.1 Grey cast iron 264
8.8.2 Ductile cast iron 265
8.8.3 Austenitic cast iron 265
8.8.4 Martensitic white cast iron 265
8.9 Use of nickel in hydrogen storage 266
8.1 Use of nickel in in-situ composites 266
9 International trade in nickel 268
9.1 Trade in nickel ore and concentrates 268
9.1.1 Exports of nickel ores and concentrates 268
9.1.2 Imports of nickel ore and concentrates 270
9.2 Trade in nickel matte 271
9.2.1 Exports of nickel matte 271
9.2.2 Imports of nickel matte 273
9.3 Trade in ferro-nickel 275
9.3.1 Exports of ferro-nickel 275
9.3.2 Imports of ferro-nickel 277
9.4 Trade in nickel sinter 279
9.4.1 Exports of nickel sinter 280
9.4.2 Imports of nickel sinter 281
9.5 Trade in unwrought nickel metal 283
9.5.1 Exports of unwrought nickel metal 283
9.5.2 Imports of unwrought nickel metal 285
9.6 Trade in nickel powder and flake 287
9.6.1 Exports of nickel powder and flake 287
9.6.2 Imports of nickel powder and flake 289
10 Nickel supply/demand balance 291
10.1 Nickel demand outlook 291
10.2 Nickel supply outlook 292
10.2.1 Future potential nickel production 292
10.2.2 Forecast primary nickel production 294
10.3 Forecast nickel supply/demand balance 294
11 Prices of nickel 296
11.1 The London Metal Exchange 296
11.1.1 Historical movements in LME nickel price 297
11.2 New York dealer nickel price 301
11.3 Market outlook for nickel prices 302
Tel: +44(0)20-8944-0066. Fax +44(0)20-8947-9568 Email:[email protected]
http://www.roskill.com/reports/nickel
SOURCE Roskill Information Services
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