CRU: Battery Metals: Review of 2019 Price Drivers and Themes for 2020
Market roundup for battery metal markets in 2019
LONDON, Feb. 12, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Before discussing CRU's outlook and key risks for battery metals in 2020, it is important to first examine the key price drivers in 2019.
- The EU cobalt metal price fell early in 2019 as a result of trader sell-off and a lack of demand from the chemical sector. Prices recovered some lost ground in August due to Glencore's announcement of intention to put the Mutanda mine under care and maintenance by the end of the year.
- Lithium prices fell further through 2019, amid subdued demand and persistent oversupply. Prices have potentially hit a floor, with frequent mine cutbacks putting a lid on oversupply.
- Nickel sulphate prices followed the broader developments of the nickel industry, seeing a price spike after the Indonesia government confirmed its export ban on low-grade nickel ore in Q3.
Another key theme of the battery metals markets last year was the changing nature of Chinese EV sales. The Chinese EV market saw year-on-year declines for six consecutive months, putting considerable downward price pressure across all battery metals, particularly cobalt and lithium.
Eight key themes for cobalt, lithium and nickel sulphate markets in 2020
CRU's battery metals team operates on a global basis with industrial experts in Santiago, London, Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai, Sydney and Pittsburgh. Below we pick out eight key themes that we expect will steer the market in 2020.
- Improved EV sales drives improved demand. Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory has started Model 3 deliveries to consumers, and other OEMs including Volkswagen will steadily roll out new EV models to the market this year. Our base case remains that we are likely to see a 20% increase in China. Several risks persist however, including the impacts of Coronavirus and a continued slowdown in China's broader automotive market.
- Accelerate adoption of nickel-intensive cathode boosts lithium hydroxide. Following Tesla's expansions and maturing technologies, NCM 811 will continue to gain prominence in the EV market. This is likely to accelerate lithium hydroxide demand significantly.
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About CRU
CRU offers unrivalled business intelligence on the global metals, mining and fertilizer industries through market analysis, price assessments, consultancy and events.
Since our foundation by Robert Perlman in 1969, we have consistently invested in primary research and robust methodologies, and developed expert teams in key locations worldwide, including in hard-to-reach markets such as China.
CRU employs over 280 experts and has more than 11 offices around the world, in Europe, the Americas, China, Asia and Australia – our office in Beijing opened in 2004 and Singapore in 2018.
When facing critical business decisions, you can rely on our first-hand knowledge to give you a complete view of a commodity market. And you can engage with our experts directly, for the full picture and a personalised response.
CRU – big enough to deliver a high-quality service, small enough to care about all of our customers.
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