Covid-19 vaccine efficacy study named AJPM's most influential paper of 2020

Computational model showing needed vaccine efficacy levels to be sole intervention continues to be used as a barometer by decision makers

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CUNY SPH

Jun 17, 2021, 11:30 ET

NEW YORK, June 17, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The emergence and rapid spread of novel Covid-19 coronavirus in early 2020 spurred numerous accelerated efforts to develop a vaccine. At the time it was not clear how effective these vaccines needed to be to slow or stop the pandemic. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) set 50 percent or greater as the target efficacy for the vaccines, but it was not clear then what efficacy levels would be needed to return to normal.

To offer guidance, researchers from Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR) at the CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy (CUNY SPH) worked with the National School of Tropical Medicine and Lundquist Institute at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center to develop a computational model of the U.S. population that simulated the spread and impact of the Covid-19 coronavirus. The model served as a virtual laboratory to test the effect of Covid-19 vaccines with a variety of efficacies, administered in different ways and times to different proportions of the population. This work was deemed paper of the year in 2020 by the American Journal of Preventive Medicine on June 17.

Prescient vaccine models
"Their study was published in July 2020, well before the actual release of the Covid-19 vaccine in the U.S.," says Matthew L. Boulton, American Journal of Preventive Medicine's editor-in-chief. "However, the authors' research has clearly played a key role in informing national vaccination strategies aimed at bringing the pandemic to an end, as reflected in the paper's rapidly growing citations in major scientific journals and innumerable mentions in leading media publications and across the social media landscape."

Results showed that in order to prevent an epidemic in a location where the Covid-19 coronavirus in not yet widespread, vaccine efficacy must be at least 80 percent, with at least 60 percent of the population getting vaccinated. In order to prevent an epidemic in a location where the Covid-19 coronavirus is already widely spread, vaccine efficacy needs to be at least 80 percent, and at least 75 percent of the population needs to be vaccinated to quell the epidemic to a point where other measures are no longer needed.

"In 2020, when the Covid-19 vaccines were still under development, our study showed what efficacy and coverage levels were needed for our society to 'return to normal' without precautions such as social distancing and face mask mandates," says Bruce Y. Lee, senior author of the study, executive director of PHICOR, and CUNY SPH professor. "This is an example of how computer modeling can help guide the design, development and implementation of a new product."

See the full release at cunysph.me/ajpm.

Media contact:
Sarah Rebbert
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SOURCE CUNY SPH