Continued Optimism for U.S. with Hiring Expectations Remaining Stable at the Start of 2016, According to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey

First-quarter hiring confidence strongest in India, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey and United States

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Dec 08, 2015, 03:20 ET

MILWAUKEE, Dec. 8, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, released today by ManpowerGroup, reflects continued optimism among U.S. employers for the start of 2016. Taking into account seasonal variations, the Net Employment Outlook is +17%, making anticipated hiring in Quarter 1 2016 relatively stable compared to Quarter 4 2015 and last year at this time. This represents the strongest Outlook reported in Quarter 1 since 2007, when the Outlook was +18%.

Of the nearly 59,000 employers interviewed in 42 countries and territories across the globe, employers anticipate an increase in staffing levels in 39 countries and territories, compared with 36 of 42 in Q4 2015. Hiring prospects strengthen in 23 of 42 countries and territories when compared with Q4, but decline in 13. Compared with last year at this time, outlooks improve in 19 countries and territories, weaken in 18 and are unchanged in five.

U.S. Results Summary

Of the more than 11,000 U.S. employers surveyed, 20 percent anticipate increasing staff levels in Quarter 1 2016. This is a 1 percent drop from Quarter 4 2015, but a small gain from Quarter 1 2015 when the estimated increase in hiring was 19 percent. Six percent of employers expect workforce reductions, and 72 percent expect no change in hiring plans. The final 2 percent of employers are undecided about their hiring intentions, resulting in a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of +17%.

Quarter	Increase Staff Levels	Decrease Staff Levels	Maintain Staff Levels	Don't Know	Net Employment Outlook *(deseasonalized)*
Q1 2016 (current)	20%	6%	72%	2%	17%
Q4 2015 (previous quarter)	21%	6%	71%	2%	18%
Q1 2015 (one year ago)	19%	6%	73%	2%	16%

"We've seen strong jobs growth in the U.S. throughout 2015, along with declining unemployment and increasing wages, which brings a continued optimism for the start of 2016," said Jonas Prising, ManpowerGroup CEO. "We expect these broad trends to continue going into 2016, despite ongoing challenges in certain sectors like energy and manufacturing, as well as in export-driven industries. As the unemployment rate comes down and the labor market continues to tighten, employers will increasingly feel the impact of rising wages and the on-going skills mismatch."

U.S. Hiring Plans by Regions, Industry Sectors and Metro Areas/States

Quarter over quarter, research shows U.S. employers in all four regions expect a relatively stable hiring pace. Employers in the Northeast anticipate a slight improvement in hiring compared to Quarter 1 2015, while employers in the Midwest, South and West are planning for a stable hiring pace over last year.

Employers have a positive Outlook in all 13 industry sectors included in the survey, with Leisure & Hospitality (+30%), Transportation & Utilities (+23%) Wholesale & Retail Trade (+22%) and Professional & Business Services (+18%) employers reporting the strongest hiring intentions.

Among the 50 states, employers in Hawaii, Florida, Kansas and Michigan indicate the strongest Net Employment Outlooks, while New Jersey, Wyoming, Illinois and Alaska project the weakest Outlooks.

Among employers in the 100 largest metropolitan statistical areas, the strongest job prospects are expected in:

Cape Coral, Fla.
Washington, D.C.
Honolulu
Dallas
Grand Rapids, Mich.
Provo-Orem, Utah

The weakest outlooks are projected in:

Hartford, Conn.
Chicago
Kansas City, Mo.
Worcester, Mass.
Tulsa, Okla.

Global Results Summary

First-quarter hiring confidence is strongest in India, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey and the United States.
The weakest – and only negative – forecasts are reported in Brazil, Finland and France.
China's slowing economy and decreased demand for raw materials are impacting labor markets beyond Asia Pacific.
Forecasts for the mining and extraction sector are down across the globe, including in Colombia, Peru and South Africa where sector forecasts are the least optimistic yet reported.
Many ManpowerGroup operations corroborate the recent Talent Shortage Survey and report that employers continue to be frustrated by their inability to source specific talents—including IT, engineering and many skilled trades.

"Economic growth expectations have come down in some global markets, but in many cases are consistent with hiring outlooks last year," said Prising. "The strength of the global recovery will continue to be uneven, particularly for some countries in Asia, Latin America and Europe. In Europe, employers in the U.K. and Germany anticipate increased hiring, and employers in Italy report their first positive hiring expectations since Quarter 1 2011, all of which points to opportunities for growth going into 2016. Companies we speak with intend to make their organizations more agile and able to deliver value in shorter timeframes as they adjust to cycles or disruptive changes within their industries."

Complete results for the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey are available for download. Data specific to the U.S. can be found here, and results for all 42 countries surveyed are available here.

The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on 8 March 2016 to report hiring expectations for Quarter 2 2016. Sign up here to receive email notification when the survey is available each quarter.

*The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity.

About ManpowerGroup
ManpowerGroup® (NYSE: MAN) is the world's workforce expert, creating innovative workforce solutions for more than 65 years. As workforce experts, we connect more than 600,000 people to meaningful work across a wide range of skills and industries every day. Through our ManpowerGroup family of brands – Manpower®, Experis®, Right Management® and ManpowerGroup® Solutions – we help more than 400,000 clients in 80 countries and territories address their critical talent needs, providing comprehensive solutions to resource, manage and develop talent. In 2015, ManpowerGroup was named one of the World's Most Ethical Companies for the fifth consecutive year and one of Fortune's Most Admired Companies, confirming our position as the most trusted and admired brand in the industry. See how ManpowerGroup makes powering the world of work humanly possible: www.manpowergroup.com

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SOURCE ManpowerGroup