Clarus Poll: Gray Expands Lead Over Fenty

Racial Polarization Drives D.C. Mayor's Contest

WASHINGTON, Sept. 8 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A new Clarus Poll shows Vincent Gray leading Mayor Adrian Fenty by 7 points among likely voters in a citywide contest defined by a deep racial divide.

• The nonpartisan Clarus Poll puts Gray in the lead among likely voters by a 45 percent to 38 percent margin. Undecided voters accounted for 14 percent of the sample and other candidates received a total of 3 percent.
• The previous Clarus Poll conducted in mid-August showed Gray leading Fenty by 5 points among likely voters, 41 percent to 36 percent. Among all voters in the mid-August survey, Fenty had a 3-point lead.

"Vincent Gray has expanded his lead over Adrian Fenty since mid-August," said Ron Faucheux, president of Clarus. "But Election Day turnout is still the key factor––and the best remaining hope for the mayor's re-election campaign."

Fifty-five percent of the survey's sample was African American and 38 percent was white (with 7 percent "other" including Hispanics, Asians, mixed race and other ethnicities). Black voters accounted for 52 percent of the mid-August Clarus Poll and 54 percent of the November 2009 Clarus Poll.

The citywide poll was conducted September 7, 2010 using live telephone interviewers by Clarus Research Group, a nonpartisan polling firm based in Washington, D.C. The poll's sample consisted of 492 Democratic voters who said they were likely to vote in the September 14 primary. The margin of error of the poll is +/- 4.4 percent.

Clarus conducted this survey for its own use. No client, candidate, or political committee sponsored or paid for this survey.

Findings of the Clarus Poll:

• RACIAL DIVIDE: Gray leads Fenty by a wide 62 percent to 17 percent margin among African American voters. Fenty leads Gray by a wide 68 percent to 22 percent margin among white voters.
• COMPOSITION OF THE ELECTORATE: "Because voters are sharply divided by race," Faucheux said, "Election Day voter turnout among each voter group is the number one factor that will determine the winner."
• TURNOUT SCENARIOS: To show the importance of voter turnout, Clarus examined two hypothetical scenarios with a 10-point arc. One scenario assumes a relatively heavy white turnout, and the other assumes a relatively heavy African American turnout.
  • "If you assume the Election Day turn out will be 50 percent black and 43 percent white, then Gray's current margin over Fenty would narrow to 2 points, 43 percent to 41 percent––making it a very tight race.
  • "If you assume the Election Day turn out will be 60 percent black and 33 percent white, then Gray's lead would expand to 11 points, 47 percent to 36 percent––giving the challenger a solid advantage."
• FAVORABILITY: Gray has a higher personal favorability rating (60 percent) than does Fenty (49 percent). Fenty has a higher unfavorable rating (40 percent) than does Gray (20 percent).
• CLARUS POLL TREND LINE:

(Alexander, Brown and Johnson were not included in the November 2009 poll trial heat. An asterisk * indicates candidate received 0.4 percent of the vote or less. Columns don't always add up to 100 because percentages are rounded.)

Ron Faucheux, Clarus president and chief analyst, is the author and editor of seven books on politics and teaches at the Georgetown University Public Policy Institute. He holds a Ph.D. in political science with a concentration in voter behavior research.

Clarus Research Group is a nonpartisan survey research firm based in Washington, D.C. Clarus specializing in public opinion polling, consumer marketing studies, organizational branding, issue strategies and message development for associations, businesses, nonprofits and media organizations.

For more information about Clarus, go to www.ClarusRG.com.

Ron Faucheux, Clarus president and chief analyst, is the author and editor of seven books on politics and teaches at the Georgetown University Public Policy Institute. He holds a Ph.D. in political science with a concentration in voter behavior research.

SOURCE Clarus Poll