Cincinnati Financial Corporation Announces Preliminary Estimate for Third-Quarter Storm Losses

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Oct 20, 2022, 16:05 ET

CINCINNATI, Oct. 20, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Cincinnati Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CINF) today announced that its consolidated third-quarter results are expected to include pretax catastrophe losses of approximately $252 million – representing an impact on the third-quarter 2022 combined ratio of approximately 13.9 percentage points, based on estimated property casualty earned premiums. The company's 5‑year historical average contribution of catastrophe losses to the combined ratio is 11.6 percentage points for the third quarter.

The catastrophe loss estimate includes $220 million from Hurricane Ian, excluding any effects of reinstatement premiums assumed or ceded, in addition to less severe storms. Losses estimated for Hurricane Ian as of September 30, 2022, did not reach a level applicable to Cincinnati Insurance's property catastrophe treaty or Cincinnati Re's property catastrophe excess of loss coverage as both reinsurance arrangements include retention of the first $100 million of any loss. The estimate for total third-quarter 2022 catastrophe losses incurred includes approximately $46 million for the commercial lines insurance segment; $69 million for the personal lines insurance segment; $112 million for Cincinnati Re^® and $25 million for Cincinnati Global Underwriting Ltd^sm.

Steven J. Johnston, chairman and CEO, commented: "Our hearts go out to all those who found themselves in the path of Hurricane Ian. We have deployed storm teams – made up of our own associates who volunteer to serve extra during catastrophes so that we can quickly begin the restoration process for our policyholders. This is when our claims associates shine, delivering fast, fair and empathetic service.

"So far this year we've seen a variety of challenges – inflation, declining stock and bond markets and a Category 4 hurricane – reinforcing our belief in the importance of maintaining our long-term focus. Our solid financial position ensures our ability to continue executing on our strategic initiatives, growing our agency plant, introducing diversifying products and investing in our talented associates."

Estimated losses and expenses from catastrophe-related claims are expected to bring the company's third-quarter 2022 property casualty combined ratio to approximately 104%. The combined ratio before catastrophe losses continues to reflect increased uncertainty of estimated ultimate losses, due in part to elevated paid losses reflecting economic or other forms of inflation. Net written premium growth is estimated to be approximately 14% for the quarter.

Declining stock markets drove third-quarter 2022 earnings to a net loss estimated to be between $2.61 and $2.67 per share, with non-GAAP operating income ranging from $0.70 to $0.76 on a per share basis. To reconcile net income to operating income, net investment gains and losses on an after-tax basis is removed.

The unaudited loss estimates and other data presented in this release is preliminary, based upon management estimates and subject to the completion of the company's procedures for the preparation of its quarterly financial statements. As a result, further adjustments may be made between now and the time financial results for the quarter are finalized.

Cincinnati Financial plans to report final results for third-quarter 2022 on Monday, October 31, after the close of regular trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market. A conference call to discuss the results will be held at 11 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 1, with a live, audio-only internet broadcast available at cinfin.com/investors.

About Cincinnati Financial

Cincinnati Financial Corporation offers primarily business, home and auto insurance through The Cincinnati Insurance Company and its two standard market property casualty companies. The same local independent insurance agencies that market those policies may offer products of our other subsidiaries, including life insurance, fixed annuities and surplus lines property and casualty insurance. For additional information about the company, please visit cinfin.com.

Mailing Address	Street Address
P.O. Box 145496	6200 South Gilmore Road
Cincinnati, Ohio 45250-5496	Fairfield, Ohio 45014-5141

Safe Harbor Statement

This is our "Safe Harbor" statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Our business is subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements in this report. Some of those risks and uncertainties are discussed in our 2021 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk Factors, Page 32.

Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to:

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic that could affect results for reasons such as:

Securities market disruption or volatility and related effects such as decreased economic activity and continued supply chain disruptions that affect our investment portfolio and book value
An unusually high level of claims in our insurance or reinsurance operations that increase litigation-related expenses
An unusually high level of insurance losses, including risk of legislation or court decisions extending business interruption insurance in commercial property coverage forms to cover claims for pure economic loss related to the COVID-19 pandemic
Decreased premium revenue and cash flow from disruption to our distribution channel of independent agents, consumer self-isolation, travel limitations, business restrictions and decreased economic activity
Inability of our workforce, agencies or vendors to perform necessary business functions

Ongoing developments concerning business interruption insurance claims and litigation related to the COVID-19 pandemic that affect our estimates of losses and loss adjustment expenses or our ability to reasonably estimate such losses, such as:

The continuing duration of the pandemic and governmental actions to limit the spread of the virus that may produce additional economic losses
The number of policyholders that will ultimately submit claims or file lawsuits
The lack of submitted proofs of loss for allegedly covered claims
Judicial rulings in similar litigation involving other companies in the insurance industry
Differences in state laws and developing case law
Litigation trends, including varying legal theories advanced by policyholders
Whether and to what degree any class of policyholders may be certified
The inherent unpredictability of litigation

Unusually high levels of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations, changes in weather patterns (whether as a result of global climate change or otherwise), environmental events, war or political unrest, terrorism incidents, cyberattacks, civil unrest or other causes
Increased frequency and/or severity of claims or development of claims that are unforeseen at the time of policy issuance, due to inflationary trends or other causes
Inadequate estimates or assumptions, or reliance on third-party data used for critical accounting estimates
Declines in overall stock market values negatively affecting our equity portfolio and book value
Prolonged low interest rate environment or other factors that limit our ability to generate growth in investment income or interest rate fluctuations that result in declining values of fixed-maturity investments, including declines in accounts in which we hold bank-owned life insurance contract assets
Domestic and global events, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, resulting in capital market or credit market uncertainty, followed by prolonged periods of economic instability or recession, that lead to:

Significant or prolonged decline in the fair value of a particular security or group of securities and impairment of the asset(s)
Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or eliminated dividend payouts from a particular security or group of securities
Significant rise in losses from surety or director and officer policies written for financial institutions or other insured entities

Our inability to manage Cincinnati Global or other subsidiaries to produce related business opportunities and growth prospects for our ongoing operations
Recession, prolonged elevated inflation or other economic conditions resulting in lower demand for insurance products or increased payment delinquencies
Ineffective information technology systems or discontinuing to develop and implement improvements in technology may impact our success and profitability
Difficulties with technology or data security breaches, including cyberattacks, that could negatively affect our or our agents' ability to conduct business; disrupt our relationships with agents, policyholders and others; cause reputational damage, mitigation expenses and data loss and expose us to liability under federal and state laws
Difficulties with our operations and technology that may negatively impact our ability to conduct business, including cloud-based data information storage, data security, cyberattacks, remote working capabilities, and/or outsourcing relationships and third-party operations and data security
Disruption of the insurance market caused by technology innovations such as driverless cars that could decrease consumer demand for insurance products
Delays, inadequate data developed internally or from third parties, or performance inadequacies from ongoing development and implementation of underwriting and pricing methods, including telematics and other usage-based insurance methods, or technology projects and enhancements expected to increase our pricing accuracy, underwriting profit and competitiveness
Intense competition, and the impact of innovation, technological change and changing customer preferences on the insurance industry and the markets in which we operate, could harm our ability to maintain or increase our ability to maintain or increase our business volumes and profitability
Changing consumer insurance-buying habits and consolidation of independent insurance agencies could alter our competitive advantages
Inability to obtain adequate ceded reinsurance on acceptable terms, amount of reinsurance coverage purchased, financial strength of reinsurers and the potential for nonpayment or delay in payment by reinsurers
Inability to defer policy acquisition costs for any business segment if pricing and loss trends would lead management to conclude that segment could not achieve sustainable profitability
Inability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends consistent with current or past levels
Events or conditions that could weaken or harm our relationships with our independent agencies and hamper opportunities to add new agencies, resulting in limitations on our opportunities for growth, such as:

Downgrades of our financial strength ratings
Concerns that doing business with us is too difficult
Perceptions that our level of service, particularly claims service, is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace
Inability or unwillingness to nimbly develop and introduce coverage product updates and innovations that our competitors offer and consumers expect to find in the marketplace

Actions of insurance departments, state attorneys general or other regulatory agencies, including a change to a federal system of regulation from a state-based system, that:

Impose new obligations on us that increase our expenses or change the assumptions underlying our critical accounting estimates
Place the insurance industry under greater regulatory scrutiny or result in new statutes, rules and regulations
Restrict our ability to exit or reduce writings of unprofitable coverages or lines of business
Add assessments for guaranty funds, other insurance‑related assessments or mandatory reinsurance arrangements; or that impair our ability to recover such assessments through future surcharges or other rate changes
Increase our provision for federal income taxes due to changes in tax law
Increase our other expenses
Limit our ability to set fair, adequate and reasonable rates
Place us at a disadvantage in the marketplace
Restrict our ability to execute our business model, including the way we compensate agents

Adverse outcomes from litigation or administrative proceedings, including effects of social inflation on the size of litigation awards
Events or actions, including unauthorized intentional circumvention of controls, that reduce our future ability to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002
Unforeseen departure of certain executive officers or other key employees due to retirement, health or other causes that could interrupt progress toward important strategic goals or diminish the effectiveness of certain longstanding relationships with insurance agents and others
Our inability, or the inability of our independent agents, to attract and retain personnel in a competitive labor market, impacting the customer experience and altering our competitive advantages
Events, such as an epidemic, natural catastrophe or terrorism, that could hamper our ability to assemble our workforce at our headquarters location or work effectively in a remote environment

Further, our insurance businesses are subject to the effects of changing social, global, economic and regulatory environments. Public and regulatory initiatives have included efforts to adversely influence and restrict premium rates, restrict the ability to cancel policies, impose underwriting standards and expand overall regulation. We also are subject to public and regulatory initiatives that can affect the market value for our common stock, such as measures affecting corporate financial reporting and governance. The ultimate changes and eventual effects, if any, of these initiatives are uncertain.

SOURCE Cincinnati Financial Corporation