Cincinnati Financial Corporation Announces Preliminary Estimate for Third-Quarter Storm Losses

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Oct 11, 2011, 04:02 ET

CINCINNATI, Oct. 11, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Cincinnati Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CINF) today announced that The Cincinnati Insurance Companies' property casualty group expects its third-quarter results to include pre-tax catastrophe losses of approximately $88 million to $98 million, with its commercial lines insurance segment accounting for almost two-thirds of that total. Catastrophe losses from storm damage affect property casualty insurance underwriting income, one of the sources of consolidated net income along with profits from investment operations and life insurance operations.

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Steven J. Johnston, president and chief executive officer, commented, "The impact of storm losses on our third-quarter combined ratio will be significantly higher than our historical 10-year average of 4.9 percentage points for the third quarter and 4.4 points on a full-year basis. The estimated impact of catastrophe losses on our third-quarter 2011 ratio would be approximately 11.5 to 12.5 percentage points, based on estimated property casualty earned premiums.

"The capital strength and liquidity of Cincinnati Insurance continue to benefit our independent agents and policyholders, giving us exceptional ability to absorb storm losses while providing the highest quality service for claims involving storms or other insured loss events. Roughly one-third of our third-quarter storm losses were from Hurricane Irene, the first hurricane to hit the U.S. since 2008. The remaining two-thirds included eight other third-quarter events.

"While Irene caused an estimated $5 billion of insured losses for our industry, careful management of our company's coastal exposures in these and other states limited its impact. Most of our Irene losses stemmed from wind damage to commercial property we insure in North Carolina and Virginia, our fifth and sixth largest states in terms of 2010 commercial lines earned premiums."

Cincinnati Financial Corporation offers business, home and auto insurance, our main business, through The Cincinnati Insurance Company and its two standard market property casualty companies. The same local independent insurance agencies that market those policies may offer products of our other subsidiaries, including life and disability income insurance, annuities and surplus lines property and casualty insurance. For additional information about the company, please visit www.cinfin.com.

Safe Harbor Statement

This is our "Safe Harbor" statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Our business is subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements in this report. Some of those risks and uncertainties are discussed in our 2010 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk Factors, Page 24.

Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to:
Unusually high levels of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations, changes in weather patterns, environmental events, terrorism incidents or other causes
Increased frequency and/or severity of claims
Inadequate estimates or assumptions used for critical accounting estimates
Recession or other economic conditions resulting in lower demand for insurance products or increased payment delinquencies
Delays in adoption and implementation of underwriting and pricing methods that could increase our pricing accuracy, underwriting profit and competitiveness
Inability to defer policy acquisition costs for any business segment if pricing and loss trends would lead management to conclude that segment could not achieve sustainable profitability
Declines in overall stock market values negatively affecting the company's equity portfolio and book value
Events, such as the credit crisis, followed by prolonged periods of economic instability or recession, that lead to:
- Significant or prolonged decline in the value of a particular security or group of securities and impairment of the asset(s)
- Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or eliminated dividend payouts from a particular security or group of securities
- Significant rise in losses from surety and director and officer policies written for financial institutions
Prolonged low interest rate environment or other factors that limit the company's ability to generate growth in investment income or interest rate fluctuations that result in declining values of fixed-maturity investments, including declines in accounts in which we hold bank-owned life insurance contract assets
Increased competition that could result in a significant reduction in the company's premium volume
Changing consumer insurance-buying habits and consolidation of independent insurance agencies that could alter our competitive advantages
Inability to obtain adequate reinsurance on acceptable terms, amount of reinsurance purchased, financial strength of reinsurers and the potential for non-payment or delay in payment by reinsurers
Events or conditions that could weaken or harm the company's relationships with its independent agencies and hamper opportunities to add new agencies, resulting in limitations on the company's opportunities for growth, such as:
- Downgrades of the company's financial strength ratings
- Concerns that doing business with the company is too difficult
- Perceptions that the company's level of service, particularly claims service, is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace
- Delays or inadequacies in the development, implementation, performance and benefits of technology projects and enhancements
Actions of insurance departments, state attorneys general or other regulatory agencies, including a change to a federal system of regulation from a state-based system, that:
- Restrict our ability to exit or reduce writings of unprofitable coverages or lines of business
- Place the insurance industry under greater regulatory scrutiny or result in new statutes, rules and regulations
- Add assessments for guaranty funds, other insurance related assessments or mandatory reinsurance arrangements; or that impair our ability to recover such assessments through future surcharges or other rate changes
- Increase our provision for federal income taxes due to changes in tax law
- Increase our other expenses
- Limit our ability to set fair, adequate and reasonable rates
- Place us at a disadvantage in the marketplace
- Restrict our ability to execute our business model, including the way we compensate agents
Adverse outcomes from litigation or administrative proceedings
Events or actions, including unauthorized intentional circumvention of controls, that reduce the company's future ability to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002
Unforeseen departure of certain executive officers or other key employees due to retirement, health or other causes that could interrupt progress toward important strategic goals or diminish the effectiveness of certain longstanding relationships with insurance agents and others
Events, such as an epidemic, natural catastrophe or terrorism, that could hamper our ability to assemble our workforce at our headquarters location
Difficulties with technology or data security breaches that could negatively affect our ability to conduct business and our relationships with agents, policyholders and others

Further, the company's insurance businesses are subject to the effects of changing social, economic and regulatory environments. Public and regulatory initiatives have included efforts to adversely influence and restrict premium rates, restrict the ability to cancel policies, impose underwriting standards and expand overall regulation. The company also is subject to public and regulatory initiatives that can affect the market value for its common stock, such as measures affecting corporate financial reporting and governance. The ultimate changes and eventual effects, if any, of these initiatives are uncertain.

SOURCE Cincinnati Financial Corporation