Chemical Activity Barometer Starts New Year With Strong Gain

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Jan 24, 2017, 08:07 ET

WASHINGTON, Jan. 24, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), started the year on a strong note, posting a monthly gain of 0.4 percent in January. This follows a 0.3 percent gain in December, November and October. All data is measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA). Accounting for adjustments, the CAB was up 4.6 percent over this time last year. On an unadjusted basis the CAB climbed 0.3 percent in January, following a 0.5 percent gain in December.

The Chemical Activity Barometer has four primary components, each consisting of a variety of indicators: 1) production; 2) equity prices; 3) product prices; and 4) inventories and other indicators.

In January all of the four core categories for the CAB improved and the diffusion index was stable at 65 percent. Production-related indicators were positive, with the housing report indicating accelerating activity and trends in construction-related resins, pigments and related performance chemistry generally improved. Other indicators, including equity prices, product prices, and inventory were also positive.

The Chemical Activity Barometer is a leading economic indicator derived from a composite index of chemical industry activity. The chemical industry has been found to consistently lead the U.S. economy's business cycle given its early position in the supply chain, and this barometer can be used to determine turning points and likely trends in the wider economy. Month-to-month movements can be volatile so a three-month moving average of the barometer is provided. This provides a more consistent and illustrative picture of national economic trends.

Applying the CAB back to 1912, it has been shown to provide a lead of two to fourteen months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2012 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index.

Chemical Activity Barometer for the Latest Six Months and Year-Ago Month*

	Jan-16	Aug-16	Sep-16	Oct-16	Nov-16	Dec-16	Jan-17

CAB (3 MMA)	110.63	113.87	114.29	114.59	114.93	115.29	115.71
% M/M	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4
% Y/Y	1.6	3.1	3.6	4.1	4.2	4.3	4.6

CAB	110.58	114.21	114.67	114.88	115.23	115.75	116.14
% M/M	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.3
% Y/Y	1.7	3.8	4.2	4.3	4.1	4.7	5.0

*Percentage changes may not reflect index values due to rounding.

The CAB comprises indicators relating to the production of chlorine and other alkalies, pigments, plastic resins and other selected basic industrial chemicals; chemical company stock data; hours worked in chemicals; publicly sourced, chemical price information; end-use (or customer) industry sales-to-inventories; and several broader leading economic measures (building permits and new orders). Each month, ACC provides a barometer number, which reflects activity data for the current month, as well as a three-month moving average. The CAB was developed by the economics department at the American Chemistry Council.

The next CAB is currently planned for:
21 February 2017
9:00 a.m. Eastern Time

SOURCE American Chemistry Council