Business Leaders' Optimism About U.S. Economic Outlook Soars after Election Outcome, AICPA & CIMA Survey Finds

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Dec 05, 2024, 07:54 ET

Two-thirds of business leaders now express optimism about the economy
All major indicators in survey rise
Jobs outlook improves, with one-in-five employers looking to hire immediately

NEW YORK, Dec. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Business leaders registered a huge shift in positive sentiment about prospects for the U.S. economy and their own organizations in the wake of the recent U.S. presidential election, according to the fourth-quarter AICPA & CIMA Economic Outlook Survey. The quarterly survey polls chief executive officers, chief financial officers, controllers and other certified public accountants in U.S. companies who hold executive and senior management accounting roles.

The AICPA & CIMA Economic Outlook Survey measures business executives' hiring outlook on a quarterly basis.

Two-thirds (67%) of business executives said they were optimistic about the economy's prospects over the next 12 months – a dramatic rise of 41 percentage points from the previous quarter. It's the highest the measure has reached since early 2020, when it stood at 74 before cratering due to pandemic-related business shutdowns and travel bans.

Business executives' outlook on the global economy also improved markedly, with those expressing optimism rising from 19% to 41%, quarter over quarter.

"Business executives say they're looking forward to less regulation and more favorable tax policies and we're seeing that optimism translate into higher profit expectations and revenue estimates," said Tom Hood, AICPA & CIMA's executive vice president for business engagement and growth. "Our first quarter 2025 survey, once the new administration's policies actually begin to be put in place, will offer insight into whether the enthusiasm is sustainable or not."

Inflation reclaimed the top spot for business concerns in the survey. Domestic political leadership, which has ranged from No. 4 to No. 7 on the list over the past three quarters, disappeared from the top 10 altogether.

The AICPA survey is a forward-looking indicator that tracks hiring and business-related expectations for the next 12 months. In comparison, the U.S. Department of Labor's November employment report, scheduled for release tomorrow, looks back on the previous month's hiring trends.

Other key findings of the survey:

Revenue and profit expectations for the next 12 months both rose substantially. Revenue growth is now expected to be 3.3%, more than double the 1.5% projection last quarter. Profit projections are now 2.2%, up from 0.2% last quarter.
Business executives who said they were optimistic about their own organization's outlook over the next 12 months rose from 41% to 53%, quarter over quarter.
A majority (57%) of survey respondents expect their businesses to expand over the next 12 months, up from 44% last quarter.
Those who said they had too few employees rose from 29% to 38%. One-in-five said they were ready to hire immediately, up from 14% last quarter. Employee and benefit costs, availability of skilled personnel and staff turnover all remained top concerns for employers.

Methodology

The fourth-quarter AICPA & CIMA Economic Outlook Survey was conducted from Nov. 6-26, 2024, and included 273 qualified responses from CPAs and Chartered Global Management Accountants (CGMAs) who hold leadership positions, such as chief financial officer or controller, in their companies. The overall margin of error is less than 3 percentage points. A copy of the report can be found on aicpa.org.

About AICPA & CIMA, together as the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants

AICPA & CIMA, together as the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants (the Association), advance the global accounting and finance profession through our work on behalf of 597,000 AICPA and CIMA members, candidates and registrants in 188 countries and territories. Together, we are the worldwide leader on public and management accounting issues through advocacy, support for the CPA license, the CGMA designation and specialized credentials, professional education and thought leadership. We build trust by empowering our members, candidates and registrants with the knowledge and opportunities to be leaders in broadening prosperity for a more inclusive, sustainable and resilient future.

SOURCE AICPA & CIMA