Brexit May Lower Europe's GDP Says University of Miami Study

CORAL GABLES, Fla., March 29, 2017 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Britain's exit from the European Union may reduce GDP growth for the entire region according to a new study from the University of Miami School of Business Administration. The dire prediction is based on research published in the January 2017 issue of the Journal of Monetary Economics. The study looked at the impact of reduced cross-border lending in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. It found that while this change in lending pattern may have been intended by policymakers to reduce systemic risk, it also resulted in a loss of $90 billion Euro (USD 97 billion) for the continental European economies.

The study looked at data across 15 economies in the European Union to determine what GDP would have been in the years after the financial crisis if cross-border lending had been maintained at the level it was before the crisis. It found that the reduction in access to capital for firms in the European countries resulted in 0.54 percent loss in output.

"Our finding should be red flag for the European Union and the U.K., showing that the Brexit talks should ensure that the difficulty of cross-border financing does not increase because of political changes," said researcher Indraneel Chakraborty, assistant professor of finance at the University of Miami School of Business Administration. "If there is pullback in cross-border lending between U.K. and the European Union, then the countries will face  slower economic growth in the future," added Chakraborty, who conducted the research with Rong Hai, also of the University of Miami, along with colleagues from the University of Oslo and Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne.

The research paper is available here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2743909##

About the University of Miami School of Business Administration 
The University of Miami School of Business is a leader in preparing individuals and organizations to excel in the complex, dynamic, and interconnected world of global business. One of 12 schools and colleges at the University of Miami, the School offers undergraduate, master's, doctoral, and executive education programs. With its location in a major center for international business, the School is acclaimed for its global perspective, student and faculty diversity, and engagement with the business community. More information about the University of Miami School of Business can be found at www.bus.miami.edu

SOURCE University of Miami School of Business Administration

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