Blizzard On East Coast Could Interrupt New-Car Sales Strength; 12.9 Percent Increase Expected For January 2015

General Motors to Lead Automaker Sales Gains; Full-Size Trucks Thrive on Low Gas Prices, Redesigned Product

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Jan 27, 2015, 05:00 ET

IRVINE, Calif., Jan. 27, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales are expected to increase 12.9 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.14 million units in January 2015, resulting in an estimated 16.5 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry.

January is typically one of the slowest months of the year, due to the strong push from manufacturers prior to year-end. However, at an estimated 1.14 million units expected in January, this month could be the highest reported January since 2006.

"Sales are trending well above levels since this time last year, when the polar vortex kept shoppers away from dealerships in many parts of the country," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "Although sales have moved briskly so far in January, a potential blizzard on the east coast does present downside risk as we head into the final selling days of the month."

Total sales in 2015 are projected to hit 16.9 million units overall, a 2.5 percent year-over-year increase and the highest overall total since 2005, when sales fell just shy of 17 million units.

Key Highlights for Estimated January 2015 Sales Forecast:

In January, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,140,000 units, up 12.9 percent from January 2014 and down 24.2 percent from December 2014.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for January 2015 is estimated to be 16.5 million, up from 15.3 million in January 2014 and down from 16.9 million in December 2014.
Retail sales are expected to account for 82 percent of volume in January 2015, flat compared to January 2014.

General Motors to Lead New-Vehicle Sales Gains in January 2015

General Motors is expected to lead gains this month with an anticipated 19.5 percent increase year-over-year, thanks to renewed interest in trucks and sport utility vehicles. The Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra have been in high demand lately and Kelley Blue Book expects to see this continue into the early part of 2015.

Fiat-Chrysler will be among the top performers in January on continued strength for the Jeep brand, particularly the Cherokee. With gas prices expected to remain low and fuel efficiency in utility and truck segments stronger than ever, expect Ram and Jeep to have a solid month.

	Sales Volume ¹			Market Share ²
Manufacturer	Jan-15	Jan-14	YOY %	Jan-15	Jan-14	YOY %
General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	205,000	171,486	19.5%	18.0%	17.0%	1.0%
Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)	172,000	153,494	12.1%	15.1%	15.2%	-0.1%
Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	165,000	146,365	12.7%	14.5%	14.5%	0.0%
Fiat Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM)	145,000	127,183	14.0%	12.7%	12.6%	0.1%
American Honda (Acura, Honda)	102,000	91,631	11.3%	8.9%	9.1%	-0.1%
Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)	98,000	90,470	8.3%	8.6%	9.0%	-0.4%
Hyundai-Kia	88,000	81,016	8.6%	7.7%	8.0%	-0.3%
Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche)	40,000	36,691	9.0%	3.5%	3.6%	-0.1%
Total ³	1,140,000	1,010,124	12.9%	-	-	-
¹Historical data from OEM sales announcements
² Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
³ Includes brands not shown

Full-Size Trucks Thrive with Low Gas Prices, Appeal of Redesigned Product

"Full-size trucks continue to thrive in 2015 and Kelley Blue Book anticipates sales will improve more than 10 percent in January alone," said Gutierrez. "Expect a strong push from Chevrolet Silverado, GMC Sierra, Ram and F-Series, especially when taking into consideration the low cost of fuel and the appeal of these recently redesigned core products."

Growth in the small crossover segment should begin to slow, but it will remain in the double-digit range in 2015. In January, Kelley Blue Book expects sales to improve by nearly 10 percent on strong demand for the Jeep Cherokee, Honda, CR-V, Toyota RAV4 and a host of other strong competitors in the segment.

	Sales Volume ¹			Market Share
Segment	Jan-15	Jan-14	YOY %	Jan-15	Jan-14	YOY %
Full-Size Pickup Truck	163,850	146,651	11.7%	14.5%	14.5%	0.0%
Compact Car	163,553	146,473	11.7%	14.5%	14.5%	0.0%
Mid-Size Car	146,900	126,915	15.7%	13.0%	12.6%	0.4%
Compact SUV/Crossover	135,600	120,484	12.5%	12.0%	11.9%	0.1%
Entry-level Luxury Car	54,240	47,629	13.9%	4.8%	4.7%	0.1%
Total ²	1,140,000	1,010,124	12.9%	-	-	-
¹ Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
² Includes segments not shown

There are 26 sales days in January 2015, compared to 25 sales days in January 2014. All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

To discuss this topic, or any other automotive-related information, with a Kelley Blue Book analyst on-camera via the company's on-site studio, please contact a member of the Public Relations team to book an interview.

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About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new and used cars this week. The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies. Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com ranked highest in its category for brand equity by the 2014 Harris Poll EquiTrend^® study and has been named Online Auto Shopping Brand of the Year for three consecutive years. Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a Cox Automotive company.

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SOURCE Kelley Blue Book