ASEAN+3 Economies Maintain Solid Growth Amid Rising External Uncertainties

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ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO)

Oct 03, 2024, 03:13 ET

SINGAPORE, Oct. 3, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) forecasts the ASEAN+3 region to grow at 4.2 percent in 2024 and improve to 4.4 percent in 2025, in its latest quarterly update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO). Continued recovery in external trade and tourism, alongside resilient domestic demand, will remain the key drivers of growth.

The latest 2024 forecast for the ASEAN+3 region represents a slight downward revision from the July 2024 AREO Update forecast of 4.4 percent, primarily due to adjustments for China and Vietnam. The Plus-3 economies (China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; and Korea) are projected to grow at 4.1 percent, while ASEAN is expected to expand by 4.7 percent in 2024.

AMRO expects the ASEAN+3 region growth to strengthen to 4.4 percent in 2025, aligning with expectations of stable external demand and resilient domestic demand amid easier financial conditions.

"Recent developments have shifted the risk landscape for the ASEAN+3 region," said AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor. "The sharp but short-lived market adjustments that we witnessed in early August is a reminder of the risk of further spikes in financial market volatility. The potential escalation of protectionist policies following the US presidential election is another key risk for the region."

Inflation in the ASEAN+3 region—excluding Lao PDR and Myanmar—is forecast to moderate to 1.9 percent in 2024, slightly lower than the July forecast of 2.1 percent. Overall, inflationary pressure remains well contained in the region, in line with the expectation of easing global inflation.

Recent US economic indicators have sparked some concerns for the region. Continued weakness in the US labor market and purchasing managers index (PMI) figures have raised fears of a sharper growth slowdown, potentially impacting regional exports. The November election outcome could also significantly affect the region's economic outlook, particularly if it signals an intensification of US-China trade tensions or broader trade frictions.

"An increasing number of central banks worldwide have begun easing monetary policy, and China has recently announced a broad set of stimulus measures to support its economy. These actions will have positive spillover effects on the rest of region," Dr. Khor said. "However, rising external and geopolitical uncertainties underscore the need to continue strengthening resilience and enhancing cooperation in the region."

Details of AMRO's analysis can be found in the latest quarterly update of its flagship AREO report. The next update will be released in January 2025.

About AMRO

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) is an international organization established to contribute toward securing macroeconomic and financial stability of the ASEAN+3 region, comprising 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; and Korea. AMRO's mandate is to conduct macroeconomic surveillance, support regional financial arrangements, and provide technical assistance to the members. In addition, AMRO also serves as a regional knowledge hub and provides support to ASEAN+3 financial cooperation.

SOURCE ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO)