Allen and Kaine in Dead Heat in Virginia; Obama Trails Some Republicans

ROANOKE, Va., Sept. 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- According a new poll by Roanoke College, Virginia's U.S. Senate race is a statistical dead heat.  Republican George Allen leads Democrat Tim Kaine 42% to 39% with 19% undecided. President Obama trails some potential Republican opponents, but he leads others. The generic (unnamed) Republican leads Obama 41% to 33%; Mitt Romney leads 45% to 37%; and Rick Perry leads by a statistically insignificant 42% to 40%. Obama leads potential opponents Michele Bachmann (46% to 35%), Ron Paul (43% to 33%), and Sarah Palin (50% to 31%). Looking only at registered voters, none of those margins change by more than 1 percent and several do not change at all. Within two key groups, Kaine leads among Moderates (52%-30%), but Allen leads among Independents (42%-33%).  Obama also performs better among Moderates and not as well with Independents.

"While the election of 2012 is still a long way off—14 months is an eternity in political time—it appears that the Senate race may well be nip-and-tuck for the next year and beyond," said Dr. Harry Wilson, the director of the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research. "At the same time, President Obama's campaign has to be concerned about the possibility of losing Virginia in 2012 after putting the state in the Democratic column in 2008. He not only trails the generic Republican candidate, but he is also currently behind the two front-runners for the Republican nomination—Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. An approval rating of only 39% should add to his worries. Still, he leads several potential Republican nominees."

The Poll – which also examines Virginians' views on the economy, jobs and direction of the country -- includes interviews conducted with 601 residents of the Old Dominion between September 6 and September 17. The Poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

Complete poll results, questionnaire and frequencies are available at www.roanoke.edu.

SOURCE Roanoke College

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