ALG Projects Automakers to Reach $50 Billion in Revenue in August

Average transaction prices expected to rise 1.7 percent

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Sep 04, 2018, 07:00 ET

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 4, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $50 billion for the month of August, up 3.1 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a gain of $1.5 billion in revenue for automakers. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 0.7 percent year over year.

"Automakers are still deciphering a complex sales environment in 2018, where softer retail demand is being offset by continued increases in Average Transaction Prices (ATP) resulting in overall revenue growth," said Eric Lyman, ALG's Chief Analyst. "Luxury automakers, Daimler and BMW, are showing year over year declines in ATP with higher incentives, despite a resilient economy that would typically buoy premium brands. On the mainstream side, FCA continues to ride a wave of successful launches by Jeep and Ram to hit a trifecta of sales and ATP growth while reducing incentives."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,179 in August, up 1.7 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $26 to $3,757. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11.3 percent, down from 11.4 percent a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer	August 2018 Forecast	August 2017	July 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$51,198	$51,578	$51,426	-0.7%	-0.4%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$56,953	$58,355	$56,267	-2.4%	1.2%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$34,576	$33,525	$34,405	3.1%	0.5%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$37,137	$35,652	$36,608	4.2%	1.4%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$36,764	$36,068	$36,415	1.9%	1.0%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$28,457	$27,130	$28,085	4.9%	1.3%
Hyundai	$22,184	$22,947	$22,142	-3.3%	0.2%
Kia	$22,733	$22,043	$22,540	3.1%	0.9%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$27,052	$27,730	$27,586	-2.4%	-1.9%
Subaru	$28,519	$27,991	$28,516	1.9%	0.0%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$31,586	$30,694	$31,659	2.9%	-0.2%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$35,213	$34,754	$35,040	1.3%	0.5%
Industry	$33,179	$32,630	$32,923	1.7%	0.8%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer	August 2018 Forecast	August 2017	July 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$5,679	$4,793	$5,812	18.5%	-2.3%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$4,915	$4,591	$5,267	7.1%	-6.7%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$4,425	$4,447	$4,462	-0.5%	-0.8%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$4,649	$4,298	$4,629	8.2%	0.4%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$4,820	$4,948	$4,943	-2.6%	-2.5%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$2,064	$1,972	$1,935	4.7%	6.7%
Hyundai	$2,945	$2,787	$2,946	5.7%	0.0%
Kia	$4,347	$3,768	$4,313	15.4%	0.8%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$3,967	$4,442	$4,068	-10.7%	-2.5%
Subaru	$1,600	$1,026	$1,621	55.9%	-1.3%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$2,600	$2,865	$2,633	-9.3%	-1.3%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$3,750	$3,745	$3,862	0.2%	-2.9%
Industry	$3,757	$3,731	$3,779	0.7%	-0.6%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer	August 2018 Forecast	August 2017	July 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	11.1%	9.3%	11.3%	19.4%	-1.8%
Daimler (Mercedes- Benz, Smart)	8.6%	7.9%	9.4%	9.7%	-7.8%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	12.8%	13.3%	13.0%	-3.5%	-1.3%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	12.5%	12.1%	12.6%	3.9%	-1.0%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	13.1%	13.7%	13.6%	-4.4%	-3.4%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	7.3%	7.3%	6.9%	-0.2%	5.3%
Hyundai	13.3%	12.1%	13.3%	9.3%	-0.2%
Kia	19.1%	17.1%	19.1%	11.9%	-0.1%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	14.7%	16.0%	14.7%	-8.4%	-0.5%
Subaru	5.6%	3.7%	5.7%	53.1%	-1.3%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	8.2%	9.3%	8.3%	-11.8%	-1.0%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	10.7%	10.8%	11.0%	-1.1%	-3.4%
Industry	11.3%	11.4%	11.5%	-1.0%	-1.3%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

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SOURCE ALG