ALG Expects Automaker Revenue to Jump to $51 Billion in May

Average transaction prices likely to rise 3.2 percent

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Jun 01, 2018, 07:00 ET

SANTA MONICA, Calif., June 1, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $51 billion for the month of May, up 6.1 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a gain of $2.9 billion in revenue for automakers versus 2017. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 1.8 percent year over year and month over month.

"Plot lines are thickening as automakers deploy varying strategies in a strong and stable, but flat, sales environment for 2018," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst. "Nissan and Hyundai are maintaining sizeable year over year decreases in spending, right sizing their sales goals to drive long term brand health. Conversely, GM is expected to become the top spending automaker in the industry, surpassing the high dollar amounts seen by BMW and Daimler."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,149 in May, up 3.2 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $177 to $3,679. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11.1 percent, up from 10.9 percent from a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer	May 2018 Forecast	May 2017	Apr. 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$51,846	$52,391	$51,995	-1.0%	-0.3%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$58,408	$59,700	$59,721	-2.2%	-2.2%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$34,075	$32,759	$33,911	4.0%	0.5%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$36,391	$35,297	$36,855	3.1%	-1.3%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$36,446	$36,973	$36,224	-1.4%	0.6%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$27,497	$27,095	$27,825	1.5%	-1.2%
Hyundai	$22,223	$22,617	$22,576	-1.7%	-1.6%
Kia	$22,580	$22,595	$22,861	-0.1%	-1.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$27,664	$27,564	$27,678	0.4%	0.0%
Subaru	$27,450	$27,530	$27,778	-0.3%	-1.2%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$31,675	$30,818	$32,050	2.8%	-1.2%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$35,663	$34,649	$36,555	2.9%	-2.4%
Industry	$33,149	$32,134	$33,435	3.2%	-0.9%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer	May 2018 Forecast	May 2017	Apr. 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$5,315	$4,149	$5,503	28.1%	-3.4%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$5,488	$4,590	$5,745	19.6%	-4.5%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$4,371	$4,434	$4,359	-1.4%	0.3%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$4,226	$4,124	$4,406	2.5%	-4.1%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$5,518	$4,219	$5,239	30.8%	5.3%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$1,690	$2,048	$1,632	-17.5%	3.5%
Hyundai	$2,751	$3,221	$2,755	-14.6%	-0.1%
Kia	$3,766	$3,358	$3,775	12.1%	-0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$3,325	$4,114	$3,099	-19.2%	7.3%
Subaru	$1,306	$995	$1,344	31.3%	-2.8%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$2,318	$2,591	$2,249	-10.5%	3.1%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$3,650	$3,432	$3,598	6.3%	1.4%
Industry	$3,679	$3,502	$3,644	5.0%	1.0%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer	May 2018 Forecast	May 2017	Apr. 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	10.3%	7.9%	10.6%	29.4%	-3.1%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	9.4%	7.7%	9.6%	22.2%	-2.3%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	12.8%	13.5%	12.9%	-5.2%	-0.2%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	11.6%	11.7%	12.0%	-0.6%	-2.9%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	15.1%	11.4%	14.5%	32.7%	4.7%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	6.1%	7.6%	5.9%	-18.7%	4.8%
Hyundai	12.4%	14.2%	12.2%	-13.1%	1.4%
Kia	16.7%	14.9%	16.5%	12.2%	1.0%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	12.0%	14.9%	11.2%	-19.5%	7.3%
Subaru	4.8%	3.6%	4.8%	31.7%	-1.6%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	7.3%	8.4%	7.0%	-13.0%	4.3%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	10.2%	9.9%	9.8%	3.3%	4.0%
Industry	11.1%	10.9%	10.9%	1.8%	1.8%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

SOURCE ALG