ALG anticipates Automaker Revenue to hit $46 Billion in July

Average transaction prices expected to rise 2.1 percent

News provided by

Aug 01, 2018, 07:00 ET

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Aug. 1, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $46 billion for the month of July, down 0.2 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a loss of $101 million in revenue for automakers partially driven by one more selling day in July 2017. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 3.2 percent year over year.

"The ATP year-over-year growth rate at the industry level remains resilient while incentive spending in dollar terms is inching up by just over $100 versus a year ago in a sturdy sales environment," said Oliver Strauss, ALG's Chief Economist. "As a percentage of ATP, incentive spending is barely growing year-over-year showing that some Automakers are slightly decelerating their incentive spend ratio. For example, Toyota is anticipated to pull back incentive spending as a percentage of ATP by 20% versus a year ago."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,022 in July, up 2.1 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $116 to $3,754. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11.4 percent, up from 11.3 percent a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer	July 2018 Forecast	July 2017	June 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$51,863	$51,026	$51,318	1.6%	1.1%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$56,024	$56,048	$57,347	0.0%	-2.3%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$34,537	$33,434	$34,570	3.3%	-0.1%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$36,538	$35,164	$36,217	3.9%	0.9%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$36,300	$37,184	$36,543	-2.4%	-0.7%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$28,064	$27,244	$27,871	3.0%	0.7%
Hyundai	$22,122	$22,771	$22,144	-2.9%	-0.1%
Kia	$22,477	$22,171	$22,513	1.4%	-0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$27,190	$27,311	$27,157	-0.4%	0.1%
Subaru	$28,605	$27,723	$27,874	3.2%	2.6%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$31,505	$30,600	$31,655	3.0%	-0.5%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$35,321	$34,443	$35,298	2.5%	0.1%
Industry	$33,022	$32,329	$32,966	2.1%	0.2%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer	July 2018 Forecast	July 2017	June 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	$5,536	$4,831	$5,597	14.6%	-1.1.%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)	$6,056	$4,922	$6,494	23.0%	-6.3%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	$4,500	$4,479	$4,501	0.5%	0.0%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	$4,494	$4,387	$4,446	2.4%	1.1%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	$5,109	$4,304	$5,196	18.7%	-1.7%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	$1,917	$2,046	$1,833	-6.3%	4.6%
Hyundai	$2,860	$2,943	$2,899	-2.8%	-1.3%
Kia	$3,919	$3,865	$3,928	1.4%	-0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	$4,199	$4,530	$4,041	-7.3%	3.9%
Subaru	$1,583	$1,099	$1,505	44.0%	5.2%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	$2,346	$2,861	$2,266	-18.0%	3.5%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	$3,845	$3,567	$3,954	7.8%	-2.8%
Industry	$3,754	$3,638	$3,787	3.2%	-0.9%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer	July 2018 Forecast	July 2017	Jun 2018	YOY	MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini)	10.7%	9.5%	10.9%	12.7%	-2.1%
Daimler (Mercedes- Benz, Smart)	10.8%	8.8%	11.3%	23.1%	-4.1%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)	13.0%	13.4%	13.0%	-2.7%	0.1%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)	12.3%	12.5%	12.3%	-1.4%	0.2%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	14.1%	11.6%	14.2%	21.6%	-1.0%
Honda (Acura, Honda)	6.8%	7.5%	6.6%	-9.1%	3.9%
Hyundai	12.9%	12.9%	13.1%	0.0%	-1.2%
Kia	17.4%	17.4%	17.4%	0.0%	-0.1%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)	15.4%	16.6%	14.9%	-6.9%	3.8%
Subaru	5.5%	4.0%	5.4%	39.6%	2.5%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	7.4%	9.3%	7.2%	-20.4%	4.0%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)	10.9%	10.4%	11.2%	5.1%	-2.8%
Industry	11.4%	11.3%	11.5%	1.0%	-1.0%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

Contact:
[email protected]
Veronica Cardenas
424-258-8427
[email protected]

SOURCE ALG