Advanced epidemiology model helps HCV brands prepare for global market expansion

BURLINGTON, Mass., Nov. 27, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources Group (DRG) has announced the introduction of a groundbreaking epidemiology product, addressing an urgent unmet need in the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) space for long-term patient population forecasts by country and by treatment scenario.

Based on DRG's gold-standard Epidemiology data, the HCV Interactive Patient Flow Model generates 15-year forecasts of the HCV patient landscape for each of 45 countries, according to five different treatment scenarios for those markets. The models use a combination of interactive patient flow diagrams and extensive data sets to depict the size and flow of more than 50 patient populations (e.g. viremic, cirrhosis diagnosed) across four HCV disease genotypes.

The HCV global market's unique complexities make it a difficult landscape to forecast with accuracy. The recent emergence of direct-acting anti-viral (DAA) therapies has resulted in an effective cure for HCV, but the high cost of these treatments prohibits universal distribution. Therefore, the prevalence of HCV in given population will largely be a function of the availability of DAAs.

Access to these drugs will vary from country to country. Therefore, for pharma companies developing HCV therapies or looking to expand into new global regions, it is vital that they are able to assess how different treatment scenarios will affect the potential value of these markets. For this reason, HCV Interactive Patient Flow Model generates five different version of the 15-year forecast for each country:

• DRG's gold-standard forecast: the most likely outcome within each market, determined by the assumptions of our epidemiology experts, using comparable disease data and historical behavior
• Without DAAs: a comparative forecast assuming no cures are introduced, essentially measuring the impact of these new therapies over the next 15 years
• With resource constraints: assumes countries choose to treat only high-risk patients (i.e. those diagnosed with liver cirrhosis)
• Without resource constraints: assumes all countries can treat patients at the same levels as high-income European nations
• WHO goals met: assumes that countries would be able to meet WHO's stated goals for diagnosis and treatment by 2030

The data and insights from these forecasts will allow companies to answer the following key questions:

• How will different treatment patterns affect the size of the eligible and treated HCV patient population in 45 countries over the next decade and beyond?
• How will the commercial objectives for my HCV assets need to change in response to unanticipated reimbursement and policy shifts among payers?
• In which countries should I focus my commercial strategy to maximize revenues from a shrinking eligible population?
• Under what national or international set of policy objectives would the ROI on my HCV assets be maximized over the coming decade and beyond?
• Which countries will see the greatest decrease in viremic HCV due to the introduction of DAAs?
• How will restricting HCV treatment to severe cases affect the commercial viability of my HCV asset?

"The HCV patient landscape is changing quickly and there is considerable risk in getting it wrong, so it's important to understand some of these varying scenarios," says Seth Kuranz, Epidemiologist, DRG. "Through this product, we are helping companies understand and communicate to their stakeholders how certain treatment assumptions might impact the size of the HCV population and the progression of the epidemic in any given country."

For more information on HCV Interactive Patient Flow Model, click here.

About Decision Resources Group
DRG, a subsidiary of Piramal Enterprises Ltd., is the premier source for global healthcare data and market intelligence. A trusted partner for over 20 years, DRG helps companies competing in the global healthcare industry make informed business decisions. Organizations committed to the developing and delivering life-changing therapies to patients rely on DRG's in-house team of expert healthcare analysts, data scientists, and consultants for critical guidance. DRG products and services, built on extensive data assets and delivered by experts, empower organizations to succeed in complex healthcare markets.

Media contact:
Decision Resources Group
Stephanie Cooper
(212) 414-7570
[email protected]

SOURCE Decision Resources Group

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