2024 Transatlantic Confidence Index shows vote of confidence in US-UK economic ties amid anxieties over future policy stability and corporate tax levels

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Jul 24, 2024, 02:00 ET

4th edition of the index for 2024 from BritishAmerican Business and Bain & Company emphasises renewed strength of transatlantic trade, business and economic relationships
US companies' confidence in the UK business environment stabilised in 2024, after two consecutive years of steep falls, while UK confidence in the US remains high and stable
Companies highlight future policy stability, tax competitiveness, and a strengthening of UK-US trade among top priorities for the future

LONDON, July 24, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Leading British and American businesses have given a new vote of confidence in the strength of transatlantic ties on trade, business and economic relationships despite an uncertain political context with national elections this year in both the UK and US.

Today's fourth annual Transatlantic Confidence Index from BritishAmerican Business and Bain & Company shows US companies' confidence in the UK as a place to do business has stabilised in 2024, after two back-to-back years of sharp drops in sentiment, driven by political and economic turbulence in Britain, with multiple changes of Prime Minister, previous bouts of market turmoil, and the ongoing impact of the UK's departure from the EU.

With UK companies' confidence in the US business environment also little changed at high levels, combined British and American business sentiment on the transatlantic economic corridor remains firmly positive, BAB and Bain report. The headline BAB-Bain Transatlantic Confidence Index for 2024 shows a score of 7.1 out of 10, up from 7.0 last year – boosted by the score for US investors' confidence in the UK ticking up to 6.6, from 6.5 in 2023. The index for UK businesses' confidence in the US was unchanged at 8.4 out of 10.

In a further signal of the continued, underlying strength of both markets and of the US-UK economic relationship, BAB and Bain note that investors from both sides of the Atlantic report stable or increasing confidence, and plan to maintain or increase investment levels in both countries. The findings suggest a current calming of conditions after a series of major disruptions for both US and UK business in recent years – including the Covid-19 pandemic, resurgent inflation and higher costs of doing business in both nations – as well as pointing to cautious optimism over AI and its potential boost to productivity.

Stable future policies for business seen as critical on both sides of the Atlantic

However, in a cautionary note amid heightened nervousness ahead of November's US presidential election, the BAB-Bain report highlights a strong focus by companies on both sides of the Atlantic on the need for stable policies – as well as stronger economic collaboration between the two countries.

Survey respondents in the UK rated the importance of UK/US policy stability, regardless of the outcome of elections, at 8.0 (on a 1 to 10 scale) while US respondents scored this at 7.4. Anxieties over policy stability also emerged from the survey's examination of the two countries' strengths and weaknesses: respondents raised concerns over political stability and regulatory certainty in the US, and over political stability, as well as talent mobility, in the UK.

Tax competitiveness a high-priority concern for both British and American business

Tax competitiveness also emerged from the survey as a high-priority concern for both British and American businesses. The UK tax environment emerged as a top three priority for more than 70% of US companies surveyed, up from 60% in 2023 – standing out as the only notable adverse shift in sentiment on the UK among US investors in the wake of recent increases in corporate tax and concern over further potential rises. Similarly, in the US, the upcoming review of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has provoked worries for UK businesses trading in America, with more than 70% citing a competitive tax environment as a top three priority, also up from 60% in 2023.

For both the UK and US markets, access to capital and to talent were called out by respondents as key strengths, as they have been in prior years' surveys. UK investors highlighted US strengths in innovation and incentives for R&D investment as important to its attractiveness, while American investors in the UK also pointed to R&D incentives as an important strength for Britain's business environment.

Transatlantic support for a strengthened UK-US trading relationship remains strong

British and American companies were again united on the need for greater UK-US economic partnership and steps by both governments to bolster the transatlantic trading relationship. 61% of all respondents supported a full free-trade agreement (FTA) between the US and UK, making this the second-highest priority for businesses for the US-UK relationship. Most companies indicated a preference for a full FTA over sectoral trade agreements – while also expressing interest in measures short of a full FTA, such as existing transatlantic dialogues on AI and other technologies.

In addition, US companies in the UK rated the importance of greater economic collaboration with like-minded allies at 8.4, and UK companies in the US at 8.6. Alongside, the survey showed that US confidence in the UK-EU relationship, while still only at moderate levels, rose for a third year in a row, with a score of 6.1 for 2024, up from 5.1 for last year, reflecting recent improvements in UK-EU relations, the report suggests.

Duncan Edwards, CEO, BritishAmerican Business, said: "This year's results underscore the strong confidence in the transatlantic corridor, which is encouraging news. Companies on both sides of the Atlantic are advocating for increased economic collaboration and policy stability. However, concerns remain over the tax environment and the cost of doing business in both countries. In fact, ensuring tax competitiveness is now the top issue for US investors in the UK. The new Labour government has insisted that growth is one of its biggest priorities and we urge them to create a favourable environment for attracting greater investment from the US."

Jonathan Frick, partner at Bain & Company in London, said: "The UK-US corridor is a critical foundation for the future prosperity of Britain and America. The vital importance of these relationships is why Bain partnered with BritishAmerican Business on this study for a fourth year in a row."

"In an era where businesses are dealing with unprecedented disruptions, from geopolitics to the breakneck pace of technological change with AI, at Bain we're working every day to help clients reinvent their businesses and their strategy to meet this moment. Against that a backdrop of big challenges, it's greatly encouraging that our findings show the continuing strength of transatlantic business and economic ties, which are more crucial now than ever. At the same time, there are important messages for governments in this year's results, in terms of the importance for business of stable policies and the need to continue to nurture and build our trading relationship in what is an ever more interdependent world."

Media contacts

For any questions or to arrange an interview, please contact:

BritishAmerican Business:
Dominic Parker (London) – Tel: +44 7500 115 352 Email: [email protected]

Bain & Company:
Gary Duncan (London) — Email: [email protected]

Notes to Editors

This is the fourth edition of the Transatlantic Confidence Index issued by BritishAmerican Business and Bain & Company. The index survey measured the confidence of US companies that are active in the UK and of UK companies that operate in the US. When appropriate, data from prior index surveys is referenced for comparison. (UK investors' confidence in the US was not measured in the inaugural report, so statistics on UK confidence are available only from 2022 onwards.)

A total of 76 companies doing transatlantic business responded to the 2024 survey, including 51 US companies and 25 UK companies. Combined, they employ nearly 320,000 people and represent a range of sectors, including financial services, technology, healthcare, media, telecommunications, and manufacturing.

While many factors influence confidence, our survey focused on overall confidence for investing and trading, short-term investment prospects, and the health of the US-UK relationship overall.

About BritishAmerican Business

BritishAmerican Business is the leading transatlantic trade association incorporating the British-American Chamber of Commerce in the US and the American Chamber of Commerce in the UK.

We are committed to strengthening the economic corridor between the United States and the United Kingdom by supporting policies and action that protect and enhance the environment for transatlantic trade and investment.

We convene and serve a growing network of companies and business leaders through networking opportunities, bespoke programming and marketing platforms.

About Bain & Company

Bain & Company is a global consultancy that helps the world's most ambitious change makers define the future.

Across 65 cities in 40 countries, we work alongside our clients as one team with a shared ambition to achieve extraordinary results, outperform the competition, and redefine industries. We complement our tailored, integrated expertise with a vibrant ecosystem of digital innovators to deliver better, faster, and more enduring outcomes. Our 10-year commitment to invest more than $1 billion in pro bono services brings our talent, expertise, and insight to organizations tackling today's urgent challenges in education, racial equity, social justice, economic development, and the environment. We earned a gold rating from EcoVadis, the leading platform for environmental, social, and ethical performance ratings for global supply chains, putting us in the top 2% of all companies. Since our founding in 1973, we have measured our success by the success of our clients, and we proudly maintain the highest level of client advocacy in the industry.

SOURCE Bain & Company