The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declined Slightly in May

US Labor Market Likely to See Slowed Job Growth Ahead

NEW YORK, June 6, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined slightly in May to 119.77, down from 120.60 in April 2022 (an upward revision). "The Employment Trends Index fell slightly in May, signaling slowing, but positive job growth in the months ahead. The labor market may have less room for more growth with overall employment down only 0.5 percent compared to the pre-pandemic level," said Agron Nicaj, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. "However, leisure and hospitality and in-person services industries have yet to fully recover job losses incurred since the pandemic. Employment growth is still expected in these industries as consumers continue to shift more spending away from goods and towards services."

Nicaj added: "The labor market remains strong amid high inflation and the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its focus on stabilizing prices as a result. A strong response by the Fed risks higher unemployment rates by the end of 2022."

May's decline in the Employment Trends Index was driven by negative contributions from four of eight components. From the largest negative contributor to the smallest, these were: the Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get", Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, and Industrial Production.

The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the index increases, employment is likely to increase as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the index indicate that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months. The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey^®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)*
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

*Statistical imputation for the recent month 
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

© The Conference Board 2022. All data contained in this table are protected by United States and international copyright laws. The data displayed are provided for informational purposes only and may only be accessed, reviewed, and/or used in accordance with, and the permission of, The Conference Board consistent with a subscriber or license agreement and the Terms of Use displayed on our website at www.conference-board.org. The data and analysis contained herein may not be used, redistributed, published, or posted by any means without express written permission from The Conference Board.

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