Analysis of the Telecoms Market in Indonesia, 2014-2025 - Subscribers, Revenues, Telco Profiles and Opportunities in 5G, M&A and e-Commerce

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Jul 28, 2020, 16:30 ET

DUBLIN, July 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The "Indonesia Telecoms Industry Report 2020-2025" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.

This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Indonesian telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights and key telecom trends. It also features the following:

Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
Spectrum Holdings
IoT Market Overview
Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
National Broadband Network Detailed Market Overview and Forecasts
Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and e-Commerce
Telco Infrastructure Review
Telco Transaction Database

Report at a Glance

Globally, the telecommunications sector is proving to be a core and essential infrastructure service to national economies, with data infrastructure becoming critical in a connected world and will likely increasingly attract a new class of investors such as large infrastructure funds. The publisher expects the Indonesian telecommunications industry to remain steady thanks to the defensiveness nature of the industry, amid the political uncertainties and an uncertain economic outlook due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Indonesian telecommunications market is a thriving mobile market with five large network operators, an incumbent fixed-line provider with near-monopoly and the overall market underpinned by strong economic fundamentals.

Indonesia is among the fastest developing telecommunications market in the world, driven by growth in both mobile and fixed broadband subscriptions. The pubisher forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow strongly in the 2020-25 period after a slow down in 2018. Fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow and increase its household penetration. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2010, sliding down every year since then.

Expanded coverage, greater affordability, service improvements, increased data usage and smartphone penetration are the main drivers of growth in the telecoms sector. The country continues to expand its fibre-optic network and 4G coverage, backed by strong investment in capital expenditure. Investment in the telecoms sector grew at a fast pace and momentum maintained expected in the 2020-25 period.

The publisher expects the overall telecoms market to grow strongly through to 2025 after a decline in 2018 due to the SIM registration regulation with overall market growth resuming from 2020 onwards.

Capex Investments

The Capex to GDP ratio remained relatively stable between 2014 and 2019. The capital expenditure (Capex) from telecommunications operators is growing strongly as mobile operators build out their 4G coverage and increase capacity to fulfil strong data demand and increased smartphones take-up. The publisher expects Capex spend to grow between 2020 and 2025.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue

The mobile subscriber penetration rate fell in 2018, after the government implemented new requirements for SIM registration in May 2018. The publisher forecasts the growth to resume and accelerate again during the 2020-25 forecast period.

Mobile network operators are facing competitive pressure with the market shifting to unlimited voice and text and data allowance increasingly becoming the sole offering differentiator.

The publisher benchmarked mobile data pricing across 8 countries in the Asia Pacific region and found that Indonesia is lagging behind in terms of data download but we expect the country to catch up as 4G coverage is accelerating and smartphone penetration is increasing especially in regional areas.

According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Indonesian pricing is already fairly low when benchmarked against neighbouring countries.

Broadband Subscribers - FTTH Push

The publisher estimates the broadband subscribers growth will be sustained by household growth and a reduction of the number of underserved premises previously not able to connect now served by the Internet but now served by FTTH services.

The Indonesian fixed broadband market is growing at double rate year on year and will continue over the 2020-2025 period with a growing appetite for high-speed data among the expanding middle-income class in Indonesia driving fixed broadband take-up and household penetration

Thematics - Telecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / e-Commerce

The long-envisioned Palapa Ring national broadband network is now completed and operational since the end of 2019. The US$1.3bn project incorporates eight different networks.

Mobile operators are accelerating their 4G LTE coverage with a strong momentum of 225 4G BTS (Base Transceiver Station) per day in 2019 quarter. Indonesia's tower market is fairly mature with nearly 100,000 mobile towers used around the country growing by about 3,000-5,000 new towers, rooftops or infill sites per year across all operators. Mobile operators are also fiberising towers, small cells and rooftops at a rapid rate to accommodate data growth usage.

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

Most telecommunications operators are in heavy investments phase both in fixed and mobile segments, spending heavily upgrading their 4G network infrastructure. The publisher expects a wave of consolidation in Indonesia not before 2022-2023, as margins get squeezed further and a new Capex cycle kicking with 5G.

The increase in smartphone penetration made possible by the availability of low-cost devices has triggered growth in e-commerce, tapping into the potential of Indonesia's emerging middle class with relatively high disposable income. GoJek, Tokopedia, Grab and Bukalapak are leading the pack with e-commerce, ride-sharing and mobile payments.

Key Topics Covered

1 Key Statistics
1.1 Indonesia's Population
1.2 Indonesia's Households
1.3 Indonesia's GDP

2 COVID-19 Impact

3 Overall Telecommunications Market, 2014-2025
3.1 Market Overview
3.2 Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2014-2019
3.3 Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2018-2025
3.4 Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2014-2025
3.4.1 Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
3.4.2 Capex to Revenue Benchmark
3.4.3 Capex to Revenue Country Benchmark
3.4.4 Capex to GDP Benchmark
3.4.5 Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2018-2025

4 Telecommunications Operators Profile
4.1 Telkom Indonesia Profile
4.1.1 Telkom Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.1.2 Telkomsel
4.2 Indosat Ooredoo Profile
4.2.1 Indosat Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.3 XL Axiata
4.3.1 XL Axiata Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.4 Tri Indonesia
4.4.1 Tri Indonesia Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.5 Smartfren Profile
4.5.1 Smartfren Revenue and EBITDA Mix
4.6 Other Players Profile
4.6.1 Link Net
4.6.2 MNC Vision
4.6.3 BizNet

5 Mobile market
5.1 Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
5.1.1 Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
5.1.2 Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2014-2019
5.1.3 Indonesia Smartphone Share, 2020
5.1.4 Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
5.2 Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
5.2.1 Historical Mobile Revenue, 2014-2019
5.2.1 Mobile Revenue Market Share, 2014-2019
5.2.2 Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
5.2.3 Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2019
5.3 Spectrum Holdings
5.3.1 Existing Spectrum Holdings and 5G Trials
5.3.2 Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
5.3.1 Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
5.4 Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
5.5 Mobile Speed Tests
5.5.1 Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
5.5.2 OpenSignal
5.6 Internet of Things (IoT)

6 Broadband Market
6.1 Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
6.2 Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025

7 Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
7.1 Fixed Infrastructure
7.1.1 Palapa Ring Completed
7.1.2 FTTH - 30m premises to go
7.1.1 Submarine Cables
7.2 Mobile Tower Infrastructure Landscape
7.2.1 4G Mobile Coverage Expansion
7.2.2 Mobile Tower Market Share, 2019
7.2.3 Tower Density Benchmark
7.3 Telco Infrastructure Comparative

8 Thematics / Opportunities
8.1 Increasing Scale - Consolidation
8.2 Growing Scope - Cross-Industry
8.3 New Telco Operating Model
8.3.1 The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
8.4 5G Developments
8.4.1 5G Overview
8.4.2 5G - Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
8.4.3 5G OpenRAN
8.4.4 Beyond 5G

9 Telco Transaction Database

List of Companies Mentioned (A-Z)

BizNet
GoJek
Indosat
Kabel MNC Play
Link Net
Mitratel
MyRepublic
Protelindo
Smartfren
Telkom
Telkomsel
Tokopedia
Tower Bersama
Tri Indonesia
XL Axiata

For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/38be0o

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