Voters Seek New Presidential Challengers, Believe Country and Economy are on the 'Wrong Track' in June Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

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Jul 01, 2022, 18:27 ET

NEW YORK, July 1, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the findings of the July Harvard CAPS/ Harris Poll, a monthly research collaboration between the Harvard Center for American Political Studies and the Harris Poll, a Stagwell research & insights firm. Findings show the country's mood continues to worsen as voters feel the pinch of inflation where it hurts most, with 64% reporting their financial situation is getting worse, almost double from the offset of the pandemic.

Other topics covered in this month's poll: Biden approval rating, the 2024 Presidential candidate field, the Supreme Court's decision on Roe v. Wade, and more.

"This month's findings on the economy, Roe v. Wade, and the 2024 presidential elections are bad news for the incumbents and good news for challengers seeking to tap into American discontent," said Chairman of the Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll Mark Penn. "'Wrong track metrics' about the direction of the country and the economy are the worst they have ever been in our poll. And, crucially, our observed aversion to the former and current president as voters begin thinking about 2024 tickets is a major opening for an independent presidential ticket – 60% would consider voting for a moderate independent candidate for president if Biden and Trump both ran."

Key Findings:

Biden Approval – President Biden's approval rating in June is at 38%, tied for the lowest it has ever been.

40% of voters think Biden is mentally fit to serve as president, down 48% from one month ago
64% say he's showing he is too old
Only a third of the Democratic base would support him in a presidential primary (though he leads the pack, this is still a very low figure of support for an incumbent)

New Presidential Challengers

71% of all voters do not want Biden to run for reelection and the plurality say it's because he is a bad president. Similarly , 61% do not want Trump to run in 2024 either and they are largely divided as to why, with a third each saying Trump is erratic, he will divide America, and he's responsible for Jan. 6.

Jan. 6 Riots – Voters remain divided on whether Trump incited or encouraged the Jan. 6 riots, but are leaning slightly toward saying 'Yes.' Note that this is a highly partisan issue with deep partisan breaks. Further, while voters believe the commission hearings are harming Trump politically, a small majority remain concerned that the commission's work is biased, that it is having the effect of dividing Americans further, and that it will be used to silence voices on the right.

Supreme Court Decision to Overturn Roe v. Wade

55% oppose the decision; 69% believe SCOTUS' decision has created turmoil; however, a plurality believe abortion standards should be set by state legislatures (44%) compared to a Congressional vote (31%) or SCOTUS itself (25%).
And despite the decision, 63% of voters view the court as legitimate and 59% believe it is wrong for Democrats to call the court illegitimate.
Lastly, it looks like abortion may not have a major impact on midterm elections – voters are just as likely to vote Democrat as they are GOP given the split nature of this issue.

The survey was fielded among 1,308 registered voters between June 28-29. Full findings can be found on the Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll website.. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.

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Contact:

Beth Sidhu
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SOURCE Stagwell Inc.