TrueCar Forecasts Fourth Consecutive Month of Slowing Vehicle Sales for August 2021
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Aug. 26, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,212,399 units in August 2021, down 4% from a year ago but up 1% vs. July 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 14.4 million, down 4% from August 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,077,701 units, down 7% from a year ago and about even with July 2021.
"The chip shortage continues to be the driving force behind vehicle availability, creating the lowest average incentive spending since 20131," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Continued strong demand is creating an environment where vehicles are selling extremely quickly. About a third of vehicles are selling within a week of arriving on the dealer lot, compared to just 18% last year," added Woolard.
"Though new vehicle sales continue to decline in August, some brands saw a year-over-year increase in sales. Toyota is operating extremely well considering their inventory days' supply is roughly half the industry average. We will continue to see how they perform once their announced plant closures put additional pressure on production and inventory," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.
Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):
- Total sales for August 2021 are expected to be down 4% from a year ago and up 1% from July 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for August 2021 are expected to be up 30% from a year ago and up 9% from July 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Incentive spend is down 39% from last year.
- Average transaction price is projected to be up 6% from a year ago and up .5% from July 2021.
- Total SAAR is expected to be down 4% from a year ago at 14.4 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for August 2021 are expected to reach 3.7 million, up 6% from a year ago and about even with July 2021.
- The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.6% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.4%.
- The average loan term on a new vehicle for August 2021 is 70 months and likewise the average loan term on a used vehicle is also 70 months.
| Total Unit Sales |
|
|
|||||||||||||
| Manufacturer |
Aug 2021 Forecast |
Aug 2020 Actual |
Jul 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
||||||||
| BMW |
29,416 |
25,235 |
28,845 |
16.6% |
21.2% |
2.0% |
10.1% |
||||||||
| Daimler |
22,840 |
23,966 |
24,977 |
-4.7% |
-0.9% |
-8.6% |
-1.2% |
||||||||
| Ford |
122,166 |
184,781 |
118,917 |
-33.9% |
-31.2% |
2.7% |
11.0% |
||||||||
| GM |
183,530 |
218,845 |
197,697 |
-16.1% |
-12.8% |
-7.2% |
0.3% |
||||||||
| Honda |
133,666 |
135,925 |
135,542 |
-1.7% |
2.3% |
-1.4% |
6.5% |
||||||||
| Hyundai |
69,550 |
59,721 |
73,680 |
16.5% |
21.1% |
-5.6% |
1.9% |
||||||||
| Kia |
64,172 |
57,015 |
70,099 |
12.6% |
17.1% |
-8.5% |
-1.1% |
||||||||
| Nissan |
64,205 |
73,833 |
80,456 |
-13.0% |
-9.6% |
-20.2% |
-13.8% |
||||||||
| Stellantis |
142,791 |
171,519 |
142,065 |
-16.7% |
-13.4% |
0.5% |
8.6% |
||||||||
| Subaru |
43,065 |
57,885 |
50,125 |
-25.6% |
-22.6% |
-14.1% |
-7.2% |
||||||||
| Tesla |
26,425 |
19,000 |
26,200 |
39.1% |
44.6% |
0.9% |
8.9% |
||||||||
| Toyota |
200,202 |
190,532 |
225,917 |
5.1% |
9.3% |
-11.4% |
-4.3% |
||||||||
| Volkswagen Group |
53,295 |
50,275 |
55,754 |
6.0% |
10.2% |
-4.4% |
3.2% |
||||||||
| Industry |
1,212,399 |
1,319,682 |
1,291,775 |
-8.1% |
-4.5% |
-6.1% |
1.4% |
||||||||
| Retail Unit Sales |
|
|
|||||||||||||
| Manufacturer |
Aug 2021 Forecast |
Aug 2020 Actual |
Jul 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
||||||||
| BMW |
28,851 |
24,827 |
28,359 |
16.2% |
20.9% |
1.7% |
9.9% |
||||||||
| Daimler |
21,794 |
23,120 |
24,466 |
-5.7% |
-2.0% |
-10.9% |
-3.8% |
||||||||
| Ford |
90,121 |
147,570 |
96,446 |
-38.9% |
-36.5% |
-6.6% |
0.9% |
||||||||
| GM |
155,217 |
196,696 |
172,037 |
-21.1% |
-17.9% |
-9.8% |
-2.6% |
||||||||
| Honda |
132,042 |
135,147 |
134,974 |
-2.3% |
1.6% |
-2.2% |
5.7% |
||||||||
| Hyundai |
61,961 |
57,839 |
66,053 |
7.1% |
11.4% |
-6.2% |
1.3% |
||||||||
| Kia |
58,942 |
53,802 |
67,491 |
9.6% |
13.9% |
-12.7% |
-5.7% |
||||||||
| Nissan |
58,190 |
68,339 |
66,456 |
-14.9% |
-11.4% |
-12.4% |
-5.4% |
||||||||
| Stellantis |
118,682 |
147,408 |
119,919 |
-19.5% |
-16.3% |
-1.0% |
6.9% |
||||||||
| Subaru |
42,220 |
56,999 |
48,256 |
-25.9% |
-23.0% |
-12.5% |
-5.5% |
||||||||
| Tesla |
26,260 |
19,000 |
26,191 |
38.2% |
43.7% |
0.3% |
8.3% |
||||||||
| Toyota |
180,822 |
184,624 |
199,937 |
-2.1% |
1.9% |
-9.6% |
-2.3% |
||||||||
| Volkswagen Group |
52,507 |
49,823 |
54,953 |
5.4% |
9.6% |
-4.5% |
3.2% |
||||||||
| Industry |
1,077,701 |
1,211,579 |
1,158,127 |
-11.0% |
-7.5% |
-6.9% |
0.5% |
||||||||
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|||||
| Manufacturer |
Aug 2021 Forecast |
Aug 2020 Actual |
Jul 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
| BMW |
565 |
408 |
486 |
38.5% |
44.0% |
16.1% |
25.4% |
| Daimler |
1,046 |
846 |
511 |
23.7% |
28.6% |
104.7% |
121.1% |
| Ford |
32,045 |
37,211 |
22,471 |
-13.9% |
-10.4% |
42.6% |
54.0% |
| GM |
28,313 |
22,149 |
25,660 |
27.8% |
32.9% |
10.3% |
19.2% |
| Honda |
1,625 |
778 |
568 |
108.9% |
117.2% |
186.1% |
209.0% |
| Hyundai |
7,589 |
1,882 |
7,627 |
303.3% |
319.4% |
-0.5% |
7.5% |
| Kia |
5,230 |
3,213 |
2,608 |
62.8% |
69.3% |
100.5% |
116.6% |
| Nissan |
6,015 |
5,494 |
14,000 |
9.5% |
13.9% |
-57.0% |
-53.6% |
| Stellantis |
24,109 |
24,111 |
22,146 |
0.0% |
4.0% |
8.9% |
17.6% |
| Subaru |
845 |
886 |
1,869 |
-4.6% |
-0.8% |
-54.8% |
-51.2% |
| Tesla |
165 |
- |
9 |
|
|
1747.2% |
1895.0% |
| Toyota |
19,380 |
5,908 |
25,980 |
228.0% |
241.2% |
-25.4% |
-19.4% |
| Volkswagen Group |
789 |
452 |
801 |
74.4% |
81.4% |
-1.5% |
6.4% |
| Industry |
134,698 |
108,103 |
133,648 |
24.6% |
29.6% |
0.8% |
8.8% |
| Fleet Penetration |
|||||
| Manufacturer |
Aug 2021 Forecast |
Aug 2020 Actual |
Jul 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
| BMW |
1.9% |
1.6% |
1.7% |
18.8% |
13.9% |
| Daimler |
4.6% |
3.5% |
2.0% |
29.8% |
123.9% |
| Ford |
26.2% |
20.1% |
18.9% |
30.3% |
38.8% |
| GM |
15.4% |
10.1% |
13.0% |
52.4% |
18.9% |
| Honda |
1.2% |
0.6% |
0.4% |
112.4% |
190.1% |
| Hyundai |
10.9% |
3.2% |
10.4% |
246.3% |
5.4% |
| Kia |
8.1% |
5.6% |
3.7% |
44.6% |
119.1% |
| Nissan |
9.4% |
7.4% |
17.4% |
25.9% |
-46.2% |
| Stellantis |
16.9% |
14.1% |
15.6% |
20.1% |
8.3% |
| Subaru |
2.0% |
1.5% |
3.7% |
28.3% |
-47.4% |
| Tesla |
0.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
1731.4% |
| Toyota |
9.7% |
3.1% |
11.5% |
212.2% |
-15.8% |
| Volkswagen Group |
1.5% |
0.9% |
1.4% |
64.6% |
3.0% |
| Industry |
11.1% |
8.2% |
10.3% |
35.6% |
7.4% |
| Total Market Share |
|||
| Manufacturer |
Aug 2021 Forecast |
Aug 2020 Actual |
Jul 2021 Actual |
| BMW |
2.4% |
1.9% |
2.2% |
| Daimler |
1.9% |
1.8% |
1.9% |
| Ford |
10.1% |
14.0% |
9.2% |
| GM |
15.1% |
16.6% |
15.3% |
| Honda |
11.0% |
10.3% |
10.5% |
| Hyundai |
5.7% |
4.5% |
5.7% |
| Kia |
5.3% |
4.3% |
5.4% |
| Nissan |
5.3% |
5.6% |
6.2% |
| Stellantis |
11.8% |
13.0% |
11.0% |
| Subaru |
3.6% |
4.4% |
3.9% |
| Tesla |
2.2% |
1.4% |
2.0% |
| Toyota |
16.5% |
14.4% |
17.5% |
| Volkswagen Group |
4.4% |
3.8% |
4.3% |
| |
95.3% |
96.1% |
95.2% |
| Retail Market Share |
|||
| Manufacturer |
Aug 2021 Forecast |
Aug 2020 Actual |
Jul 2021 Actual |
| BMW |
2.7% |
2.0% |
2.4% |
| Daimler |
2.0% |
1.9% |
2.1% |
| Ford |
8.4% |
12.2% |
8.3% |
| GM |
14.4% |
16.2% |
14.9% |
| Honda |
12.3% |
11.2% |
11.7% |
| Hyundai |
5.7% |
4.8% |
5.7% |
| Kia |
5.5% |
4.4% |
5.8% |
| Nissan |
5.4% |
5.6% |
5.7% |
| Stellantis |
11.0% |
12.2% |
10.4% |
| Subaru |
3.9% |
4.7% |
4.2% |
| Tesla |
2.4% |
1.6% |
2.3% |
| Toyota |
16.8% |
15.2% |
17.3% |
| Volkswagen Group |
4.9% |
4.1% |
4.7% |
| |
95.4% |
96.2% |
95.5% |
| ATP |
|
|
|||
| Manufacturer |
Aug 2021 Forecast |
Aug 2020 Actual |
Jul 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
| BMW |
$57,757 |
$57,122 |
$56,408 |
1.1% |
2.4% |
| Daimler |
$67,341 |
$59,487 |
$60,768 |
13.2% |
10.8% |
| Ford |
$47,641 |
$42,342 |
$46,896 |
12.5% |
1.6% |
| GM |
$44,962 |
$41,745 |
$44,846 |
7.7% |
0.3% |
| Honda |
$31,557 |
$30,112 |
$31,048 |
4.8% |
1.6% |
| Hyundai |
$31,842 |
$29,082 |
$31,114 |
9.5% |
2.3% |
| Kia |
$27,674 |
$26,158 |
$27,803 |
5.8% |
-0.5% |
| Nissan |
$31,393 |
$28,419 |
$31,574 |
10.5% |
-0.6% |
| Stellantis |
$47,719 |
$42,440 |
$47,623 |
12.4% |
0.2% |
| Subaru |
$31,312 |
$30,087 |
$30,983 |
4.1% |
1.1% |
| Toyota |
$35,035 |
$34,087 |
$35,102 |
2.8% |
-0.2% |
| Volkswagen Group |
$42,197 |
$40,947 |
$42,273 |
3.1% |
-0.2% |
| Industry |
$38,520 |
$36,373 |
$38,332 |
5.9% |
0.5% |
| |
$2,148 |
|
$188 |
|
|
| Incentives |
|
|
|||
| Manufacturer |
Aug 2021 Forecast |
Aug 2020 Actual |
Jul 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
| BMW |
$4,029 |
$5,486 |
$4,427 |
-26.6% |
-9.0% |
| Daimler |
$3,929 |
$5,560 |
$3,280 |
-29.3% |
19.8% |
| Ford |
$2,234 |
$4,023 |
$2,461 |
-44.5% |
-9.2% |
| GM |
$3,384 |
$5,570 |
$3,991 |
-39.2% |
-15.2% |
| Honda |
$1,945 |
$2,644 |
$2,112 |
-26.4% |
-7.9% |
| Hyundai |
$1,503 |
$2,444 |
$1,895 |
-38.5% |
-20.7% |
| Kia |
$2,034 |
$3,711 |
$2,603 |
-45.2% |
-21.9% |
| Nissan |
$2,283 |
$4,520 |
$3,005 |
-49.5% |
-24.0% |
| Stellantis |
$2,981 |
$4,812 |
$2,720 |
-38.1% |
9.6% |
| Subaru |
$1,192 |
$1,855 |
$1,395 |
-35.7% |
-14.5% |
| Toyota |
$1,825 |
$2,745 |
$1,957 |
-33.5% |
-6.8% |
| Volkswagen Group |
$2,799 |
$4,478 |
$3,362 |
-37.5% |
-16.8% |
| Industry |
$2,432 |
$3,969 |
$2,688 |
-38.7% |
-9.5% |
| |
-$1,537 |
|
-$256 |
|
|
| Incentives as % of ATP |
|
|
|||
| Manufacturer |
Aug 2021 Forecast |
Aug 2020 Actual |
Jul 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
| BMW |
7.0% |
9.6% |
7.8% |
-27.4% |
-11.1% |
| Daimler |
5.8% |
9.3% |
5.4% |
-37.6% |
8.1% |
| Ford |
4.7% |
9.5% |
5.2% |
-50.7% |
-10.7% |
| GM |
7.5% |
13.3% |
8.9% |
-43.6% |
-15.4% |
| Honda |
6.2% |
8.8% |
6.8% |
-29.8% |
-9.4% |
| Hyundai |
4.7% |
8.4% |
6.1% |
-43.8% |
-22.5% |
| Kia |
7.4% |
14.2% |
9.4% |
-48.2% |
-21.5% |
| Nissan |
7.3% |
15.9% |
9.5% |
-54.3% |
-23.6% |
| Stellantis |
6.2% |
11.3% |
5.7% |
-44.9% |
9.4% |
| Subaru |
3.8% |
6.2% |
4.5% |
-38.3% |
-15.4% |
| Toyota |
5.2% |
8.1% |
5.6% |
-35.3% |
-6.6% |
| Volkswagen Group |
6.6% |
10.9% |
8.0% |
-39.4% |
-16.6% |
| Industry |
6.3% |
10.9% |
7.0% |
-42.1% |
-10.0% |
| Revenue |
|
|
|||
| Manufacturer |
Aug 2021 Forecast |
Aug 2020 Actual |
Jul 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
| Industry |
$46,702,106,518 |
$48,000,364,966 |
$49,516,875,483 |
-2.7% |
-5.7% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter.
1 according to Motor Intelligence
SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.
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