TrueCar Forecasts a Continued Decline in Industry Sales for October 2021 Amid Vehicle Shortages
Inventory levels appear to be stabilizing with days supply increasing for the first time this year
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Oct. 27, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,054,312 units in October 2021, down 20% from a year ago and down 3% vs. September 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 13 million, down 20% from October 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 945,027 units, down 20% from a year ago and down 3% from September 2021.
"After eight months of consistent declines we are finally starting to see signs of a slight improvement in new vehicle inventory," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Overall inventory remains tight and with demand holding strong we are set to see another month of record new vehicle transaction prices."
"While overall average incentive spend is expected to continue to decline, the decline is not uniform across vehicle segments," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "Full-size pickup trucks are actually seeing a notable increase in finance offers which has helped drive that segment to almost 25% of new vehicle sales, a dramatic increase from 15% back in May."
Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):
- Total sales for October 2021 are expected to be down 20% from a year ago and down 3% from September 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for October 2021 are expected to be down 14% from a year ago and down 5% from September 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Incentive spend is down 39% from last year.
- Average transaction price is projected to be up 8% from a year ago and up 1% from September 2021.
- Total SAAR is expected to be down 20% from a year ago at 13 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for October 2021 are expected to reach 3.5 million, up 5% from a year ago and down 2% from September 2021.
- The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.3%.
- The average loan term on a new vehicle for October 2021 is 70 months and likewise the average loan term on a used vehicle is also 70 months.
Total Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
Oct 2021 Forecast |
Oct 2020 Actual |
Sep 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
27,666 |
31,040 |
26,031 |
-10.9% |
-7.6% |
6.3% |
-1.6% |
Daimler |
19,676 |
29,082 |
18,419 |
-32.3% |
-29.8% |
6.8% |
-1.1% |
Ford |
165,523 |
181,820 |
155,384 |
-9.0% |
-5.6% |
6.5% |
-1.4% |
GM |
144,921 |
259,493 |
111,046 |
-44.2% |
-42.1% |
30.5% |
20.8% |
Honda |
97,565 |
126,987 |
95,716 |
-23.2% |
-20.3% |
1.9% |
-5.6% |
Hyundai |
69,669 |
58,449 |
58,667 |
19.2% |
23.6% |
18.8% |
10.0% |
Kia |
52,514 |
56,094 |
52,906 |
-6.4% |
-2.9% |
-0.7% |
-8.1% |
Nissan |
54,511 |
71,679 |
51,182 |
-24.0% |
-21.1% |
6.5% |
-1.4% |
Stellantis |
131,570 |
159,147 |
130,926 |
-17.3% |
-14.3% |
0.5% |
-7.0% |
Subaru |
35,236 |
61,411 |
42,054 |
-42.6% |
-40.5% |
-16.2% |
-22.4% |
Tesla |
28,394 |
19,600 |
26,291 |
44.9% |
50.2% |
8.0% |
0.0% |
Toyota |
136,547 |
203,936 |
151,378 |
-33.0% |
-30.6% |
-9.8% |
-16.5% |
Volkswagen Group |
45,627 |
51,607 |
38,821 |
-11.6% |
-8.3% |
17.5% |
8.8% |
Industry |
1,054,312 |
1,361,858 |
1,006,931 |
-22.6% |
-19.7% |
4.7% |
-3.1% |
Retail Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
Oct 2021 Forecast |
Oct 2020 Actual |
Sep 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
27,101 |
30,527 |
25,563 |
-11.2% |
-7.9% |
6.0% |
-1.8% |
Daimler |
18,630 |
28,152 |
18,042 |
-33.8% |
-31.4% |
3.3% |
-4.4% |
Ford |
130,808 |
145,598 |
126,366 |
-10.2% |
-6.8% |
3.5% |
-4.2% |
GM |
131,311 |
221,495 |
96,906 |
-40.7% |
-38.5% |
35.5% |
25.5% |
Honda |
96,538 |
126,385 |
95,314 |
-23.6% |
-20.8% |
1.3% |
-6.2% |
Hyundai |
65,719 |
50,603 |
54,276 |
29.9% |
34.7% |
21.1% |
12.1% |
Kia |
47,284 |
51,078 |
50,938 |
-7.4% |
-4.0% |
-7.2% |
-14.0% |
Nissan |
49,584 |
67,585 |
42,214 |
-26.6% |
-23.9% |
17.5% |
8.8% |
Stellantis |
109,296 |
134,124 |
110,891 |
-18.5% |
-15.5% |
-1.4% |
-8.7% |
Subaru |
35,031 |
60,582 |
40,486 |
-42.2% |
-40.0% |
-13.5% |
-19.9% |
Tesla |
28,229 |
19,600 |
26,282 |
44.0% |
49.4% |
7.4% |
-0.5% |
Toyota |
122,548 |
194,363 |
134,082 |
-36.9% |
-34.6% |
-8.6% |
-15.4% |
Volkswagen Group |
44,838 |
51,182 |
38,284 |
-12.4% |
-9.1% |
17.1% |
8.4% |
Industry |
945,027 |
1,229,613 |
900,655 |
-23.1% |
-20.3% |
4.9% |
-2.8% |
Fleet Unit Sales |
|||||||
Manufacturer |
Oct 2021 Forecast |
Oct 2020 Actual |
Sep 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
565 |
513 |
468 |
10.2% |
14.3% |
20.7% |
11.8% |
Daimler |
1,046 |
930 |
377 |
12.5% |
16.7% |
177.6% |
157.1% |
Ford |
34,715 |
36,222 |
29,018 |
-4.2% |
-0.6% |
19.6% |
10.8% |
GM |
13,610 |
37,998 |
14,140 |
-64.2% |
-62.9% |
-3.7% |
-10.9% |
Honda |
1,028 |
602 |
402 |
70.7% |
77.0% |
155.7% |
136.7% |
Hyundai |
3,950 |
7,846 |
4,391 |
-49.7% |
-47.8% |
-10.0% |
-16.7% |
Kia |
5,230 |
5,016 |
1,968 |
4.3% |
8.1% |
165.7% |
146.0% |
Nissan |
4,927 |
4,094 |
8,968 |
20.3% |
24.8% |
-45.1% |
-49.1% |
Stellantis |
22,274 |
25,023 |
20,035 |
-11.0% |
-7.7% |
11.2% |
2.9% |
Subaru |
205 |
829 |
1,568 |
-75.3% |
-74.4% |
-86.9% |
-87.9% |
Tesla |
165 |
- |
9 |
1740.8% |
1604.4% |
||
Toyota |
13,999 |
9,573 |
17,296 |
46.2% |
51.7% |
-19.1% |
-25.1% |
Volkswagen Group |
789 |
425 |
537 |
85.5% |
92.3% |
46.9% |
36.0% |
Industry |
109,285 |
132,245 |
106,276 |
-17.4% |
-14.3% |
2.8% |
-4.8% |
Fleet Penetration |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Oct 2021 Forecast |
Oct 2020 Actual |
Sep 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
2.0% |
1.7% |
1.8% |
23.6% |
13.6% |
Daimler |
5.3% |
3.2% |
2.0% |
66.3% |
159.9% |
Ford |
21.0% |
19.9% |
18.7% |
5.3% |
12.3% |
GM |
9.4% |
14.6% |
12.7% |
-35.9% |
-26.2% |
Honda |
1.1% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
122.2% |
150.8% |
Hyundai |
5.7% |
13.4% |
7.5% |
-57.8% |
-24.2% |
Kia |
10.0% |
8.9% |
3.7% |
11.4% |
167.7% |
Nissan |
9.0% |
5.7% |
17.5% |
58.3% |
-48.4% |
Stellantis |
16.9% |
15.7% |
15.3% |
7.7% |
10.6% |
Subaru |
0.6% |
1.3% |
3.7% |
-56.9% |
-84.4% |
Tesla |
0.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
1604.4% |
|
Toyota |
10.3% |
4.7% |
11.4% |
118.4% |
-10.3% |
Volkswagen Group |
1.7% |
0.8% |
1.4% |
109.8% |
25.0% |
Industry |
10.4% |
9.7% |
10.6% |
6.7% |
-1.8% |
Total Market Share |
|||
Manufacturer |
Oct 2021 Forecast |
Oct 2020 Actual |
Sep 2021 Actual |
BMW |
2.6% |
2.3% |
2.6% |
Daimler |
1.9% |
2.1% |
1.8% |
Ford |
15.7% |
13.4% |
15.4% |
GM |
13.7% |
19.1% |
11.0% |
Honda |
9.3% |
9.3% |
9.5% |
Hyundai |
6.6% |
4.3% |
5.8% |
Kia |
5.0% |
4.1% |
5.3% |
Nissan |
5.2% |
5.3% |
5.1% |
Stellantis |
12.5% |
11.7% |
13.0% |
Subaru |
3.3% |
4.5% |
4.2% |
Tesla |
2.7% |
1.4% |
2.6% |
Toyota |
13.0% |
15.0% |
15.0% |
Volkswagen Group |
4.3% |
3.8% |
3.9% |
95.7% |
96.2% |
95.2% |
|
Retail Market Share |
|||
Manufacturer |
Oct 2021 Forecast |
Oct 2020 Actual |
Sep 2021 Actual |
BMW |
2.9% |
2.5% |
2.8% |
Daimler |
2.0% |
2.3% |
2.0% |
Ford |
13.8% |
11.8% |
14.0% |
GM |
13.9% |
18.0% |
10.8% |
Honda |
10.2% |
10.3% |
10.6% |
Hyundai |
7.0% |
4.1% |
6.0% |
Kia |
5.0% |
4.2% |
5.7% |
Nissan |
5.2% |
5.5% |
4.7% |
Stellantis |
11.6% |
10.9% |
12.3% |
Subaru |
3.7% |
4.9% |
4.5% |
Tesla |
3.0% |
1.6% |
2.9% |
Toyota |
13.0% |
15.8% |
14.9% |
Volkswagen Group |
4.7% |
4.2% |
4.3% |
96.0% |
96.1% |
95.4% |
|
ATP |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Oct 2021 Forecast |
Oct 2020 Actual |
Sep 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$60,330 |
$61,519 |
$61,267 |
-1.9% |
-1.5% |
Daimler |
$62,653 |
$57,690 |
$64,719 |
8.6% |
-3.2% |
Ford |
$46,623 |
$43,493 |
$47,323 |
7.2% |
-1.5% |
GM |
$49,786 |
$42,891 |
$48,370 |
16.1% |
2.9% |
Honda |
$31,730 |
$30,144 |
$31,782 |
5.3% |
-0.2% |
Hyundai |
$33,663 |
$29,822 |
$33,543 |
12.9% |
0.4% |
Kia |
$28,700 |
$27,608 |
$28,411 |
4.0% |
1.0% |
Nissan |
$32,615 |
$28,388 |
$31,910 |
14.9% |
2.2% |
Stellantis |
$48,791 |
$42,638 |
$47,679 |
14.4% |
2.3% |
Subaru |
$30,263 |
$30,281 |
$29,951 |
-0.1% |
1.0% |
Toyota |
$38,588 |
$35,476 |
$37,189 |
8.8% |
3.8% |
Volkswagen Group |
$39,475 |
$38,948 |
$38,537 |
1.4% |
2.4% |
Industry |
$40,121 |
$37,117 |
$39,724 |
8.1% |
1.0% |
$3,004 |
$397 |
||||
Incentives |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Oct 2021 Forecast |
Oct 2020 Actual |
Sep 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$3,360 |
$4,916 |
$3,601 |
-31.7% |
-6.7% |
Daimler |
$2,981 |
$4,563 |
$3,177 |
-34.7% |
-6.2% |
Ford |
$2,481 |
$4,375 |
$2,622 |
-43.3% |
-5.4% |
GM |
$2,441 |
$4,943 |
$2,650 |
-50.6% |
-7.9% |
Honda |
$1,982 |
$2,298 |
$2,007 |
-13.8% |
-1.3% |
Hyundai |
$1,180 |
$2,323 |
$1,381 |
-49.2% |
-14.5% |
Kia |
$1,775 |
$2,891 |
$2,047 |
-38.6% |
-13.3% |
Nissan |
$2,332 |
$4,661 |
$2,397 |
-50.0% |
-2.7% |
Stellantis |
$3,108 |
$4,480 |
$3,186 |
-30.6% |
-2.4% |
Subaru |
$1,218 |
$1,525 |
$1,199 |
-20.2% |
1.5% |
Toyota |
$2,045 |
$2,462 |
$1,794 |
-16.9% |
14.0% |
Volkswagen Group |
$2,525 |
$3,839 |
$2,547 |
-34.2% |
-0.8% |
Industry |
$2,277 |
$3,708 |
$2,348 |
-38.6% |
-3.0% |
-$1,431 |
-$71 |
||||
Incentives as % of ATP |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Oct 2021 Forecast |
Oct 2020 Actual |
Sep 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
5.6% |
8.0% |
5.9% |
-30.3% |
-5.2% |
Daimler |
4.8% |
7.9% |
4.9% |
-39.8% |
-3.1% |
Ford |
5.3% |
10.1% |
5.5% |
-47.1% |
-4.0% |
GM |
4.9% |
11.5% |
5.5% |
-57.5% |
-10.5% |
Honda |
6.2% |
7.6% |
6.3% |
-18.1% |
-1.1% |
Hyundai |
3.5% |
7.8% |
4.1% |
-55.0% |
-14.8% |
Kia |
6.2% |
10.5% |
7.2% |
-40.9% |
-14.2% |
Nissan |
7.1% |
16.4% |
7.5% |
-56.5% |
-4.8% |
Stellantis |
6.4% |
10.5% |
6.7% |
-39.4% |
-4.7% |
Subaru |
4.0% |
5.0% |
4.0% |
-20.1% |
0.5% |
Toyota |
5.3% |
6.9% |
4.8% |
-23.6% |
9.9% |
Volkswagen Group |
6.4% |
9.9% |
6.6% |
-35.1% |
-3.2% |
Industry |
5.7% |
10.0% |
5.9% |
-43.2% |
-4.0% |
Revenue |
|||||
Manufacturer |
Oct 2021 Forecast |
Oct 2020 Actual |
Sep 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
Industry |
$42,300,229,951 |
$50,548,186,301 |
$39,999,490,009 |
-16.3% |
5.8% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter.
SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.
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