The Roanoke College Poll: Clinton holds 7-point lead in Virginia

SALEM, Va., Nov. 4, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton holds a 7 percentage point lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump among likely voters in Virginia (45%-38%), according to the latest Roanoke College Poll. Libertarian Gary Johnson trails with 5 percent of likely voters, Green Party candidate Jill Stein captures 2 percent, and Independent Evan McMullin garners 1 percent, while 9 percent remain undecided. In a two-way Clinton-Trump matchup, Clinton's lead extends to 9 points (49%-40%). Clinton led by 9 percentage points in the last Roanoke College Poll (45%-36%) in early October. 

The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 654 likely voters in Virginia between October 29 and November 1 and has a margin of error of +3.8 percent. The Poll was conducted after the announcement by FBI director James Comey that the organization was reopening the inquiry into Hillary Clinton's emails.

IPOR was in the field with a poll when Comey made his announcement on October 28. At that time, they had interviewed 766 likely voters, and Clinton enjoyed a 50%-32% lead over Trump. The decision was made to continue interviewing but treat subsequent days as a "new" poll because of the potential impact of the announcement.

"We think that Clinton's margin decreased by so much for two reasons," says poll director Harry Wilson. "First, there is evidence that the renewed email investigation did impact some voters' decisions. Second, we do not think the entire shift was caused by that announcement, but we believe that the 18-point margin both represents the zenith for Clinton support (because the headlines had been dominated by negative Trump stories for weeks) and the results were probably at the top of the margin of error in Clinton's favor."

Respondents who said they would vote for another candidate were asked if the announcement influenced them to switch from Clinton to another candidate; 7 percent reported that it had influenced them. Similarly, 10 percent of those who were undecided said the investigation had influenced them to switch from Clinton to undecided. Not surprisingly, only 2 percent of Clinton supporters said they were now thinking about supporting another candidate.

Full results and information is available at: http://bit.ly/2flEyDb

SOURCE The Roanoke College Poll