The Economist's US presidential forecast gives Joe Biden a 34% chance of staving off a second Trump term

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Jun 12, 2024, 13:25 ET

Forecast predicts Donald Trump has a small but clear two-thirds lead in the 2024 election

WASHINGTON, June 12, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Today The Economist launched its statistical forecast model for the 2024 US presidential election, which, at the moment, gives Joe Biden a 34% chance of holding on to the presidency.

Mr. Biden trails in polling averages in all six plausibly decisive states, with deficits ranging from one to six percentage points. In the two where he is closest, Wisconsin and Michigan, Democratic candidates' margins have under-performed the final polls by an average of six percentage points during the past two elections. And even if he wins both, he would still need one more swing state to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary for re-election.

"Our 2024 forecast deploys rigorous statistical methods, but ultimately reflects the data that go into it. Donald Trump leads polls nationally and in every swing state. Unless and until that changes, the model will make Trump at least a narrow favorite," said Dan Rosenheck, data editor.

As of June 12th, The Economist forecast model suggests:

Biden is slightly more likely to gain ground on Trump during the next five months than to lose it
On average, the model predicts Biden to pick up half a percentage point nationwide, yielding a tie in the popular vote
Biden has a 24% chance of holding on to Georgia, where his lost popularity with black voters is most damaging, and a 31% and 36% chance in Arizona and Nevada, respectively

Read Dan Rosenheck's analysis of The Economist's forecast model here:
https://www.economist.com/US-forecast-analysis

About The Economist
With rigorous reporting, in-depth analysis and global perspective, The Economist explains today's most important events and seeks to discern the trends that will shape the future. In addition to the weekly print edition, The Economist publishes its journalism daily through its website, app, podcasts, newsletters, videos and Espresso, an app for concise global news. The Economist has 1.2m subscribers. More than 60m people follow The Economist across X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, LinkedIn, TikTok and Threads.

About the forecast model
The model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict the election results across the country. To work out the likely electoral-vote totals, we run over 10,000 simulations of the election.

SOURCE The Economist