The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. was Unchanged in January

NOTE: The partial federal government shutdown that occurred in late December and January resulted in delays of some of the underlying components data that are used to produce estimates of the composite indexes. This interim release of the U.S. LEI for January 2019 reflects the most up-to-date data released by the source agencies and updates the preliminary results initially published on February 21, 2019.

Please note that building permits data is still not available for January 2019. The Conference Board has used its standard procedure of statistical imputations to fill in the missing data in order to publish the Leading Economic Index.

News provided by

The Conference Board

Mar 04, 2019, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, March 4, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in January (according to new estimates), remaining at 111.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in December, and a 0.1 percent increase in November.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in January to 105.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in December, and a 0.2 percent increase in November.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in January to 106.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in December and a 0.4 percent increase in November.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2018				2019		6-month
	Nov		Dec		Jan		Jul to Jan


Leading Index	111.4		111.3	r	111.3	p
Percent Change	0.1		-0.1	r	0.0	p	0.8
Diffusion	60.0		70.0		70.0		60.0

Coincident Index	105.2		105.6	r	105.7	p
Percent Change	0.2		0.4	r	0.1	p	1.3
Diffusion	100.0		100.0		75.0		100.0

Lagging Index	106.0	r	106.4	r	106.8	p
Percent Change	0.4	r	0.4	r	0.4	p	1.9
Diffusion	64.3		71.4		50.0		85.7

p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2016
Source: The Conference Board