The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Sharply in October

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Nov 19, 2015, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, Nov. 19, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in October to 124.1 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in September, and a 0.1 percent decline in August.

"The U.S. LEI rose sharply in October, with the yield spread, stock prices, and building permits driving the increase," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "Despite lackluster third quarter growth, the economic outlook now appears to be improving. While the U.S. LEI's six-month growth rate has moderated, the U.S. economy remains on track for continued expansion heading into 2016."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in October to 113.0 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September, and a 0.2 percent increase in August.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in October to 119.3 (2010 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in September, and a 0.2 percent increase in August.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2015						6-month
	Aug		Sep		Oct		Apr to Oct


Leading Index	123.4	r	123.3		124.1	p
Percent Change	-0.1	r	-0.1	r	0.6	p	1.6
Diffusion	55.0		50.0		90.0		75.0

Coincident Index	112.7	r	112.8		113.0	p
Percent Change	0.2	r	0.1	r	0.2	p	0.9
Diffusion	100.0		75.0		75.0		100.0

Lagging Index	118.4		119.1	r	119.3	p
Percent Change	0.2	r	0.6	r	0.2	p	2.3
Diffusion	64.3		64.3		78.6		92.9

p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
Source: The Conference Board

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

SOURCE The Conference Board