The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in September

Economy Remains on Strong Growth Trajectory Heading into 2019

News provided by

Oct 18, 2018, 10:00 ET

NEW YORK, Oct. 18, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in September to 111.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in August, and a 0.7 percent increase in July.

"The US LEI improved further in September, suggesting the US business cycle remains on a strong growth trajectory heading into 2019. However, the LEI's growth has slowed somewhat in recent months, suggesting the economy may be facing capacity constraints and increasingly tight labor markets," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director and Global Research Chair at The Conference Board. "Economic growth could exceed 3.5 percent in the second half of 2018, but, unless the momentum in housing, orders and stock prices accelerates, that pace is unlikely to be sustained in 2019."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in September to 104.4 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in August, and a 0.1 percent increase in July.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in September to 105.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in August and a 0.2 percent decline in July.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. We connect senior executives across industries and geographies to share ideas, develop insights, and recommend policy to address key issues. Our mission is to help leaders anticipate what's ahead, improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. http://www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2018						6-month
	Jul		Aug		Sep		Mar to Sep


Leading Index	110.8		111.2		111.8	p
Percent Change	0.7		0.4		0.5	p	2.8
Diffusion	95.0		75.0		80.0		80.0

Coincident Index	104.0	r	104.3		104.4	p
Percent Change	0.1	r	0.3	r	0.1	p	1.1
Diffusion	100.0		100.0		100.0		100.0

Lagging Index	105.2		105.4		105.3	p
Percent Change	-0.2		0.2		-0.1	p	1.1
Diffusion	57.1		42.9		28.6		71.4

p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2016
Source: The Conference Board