The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Declines Again in April

NEW YORK, May 18, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.6 percent in April 2023 to 107.5 (2016=100), following a decline of 1.2 percent in March. The LEI is down 4.4 percent over the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months (April–October 2022).

"The LEI for the US declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in April, signaling a worsening economic outlook," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Weaknesses among underlying components were widespread—but less so than in March's reading, which resulted in a smaller decline. Only stock prices and manufacturers' new orders for both capital and consumer goods improved in April. Importantly, the LEI continues to warn of an economic downturn this year. The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.3 percent in April 2023 to 110.2 (2016=100), after rising by 0.2 percent in March. The CEI is now up 0.7 percent over the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023—down from the 0.9 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months. The CEI's component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing trade and sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. While recent trends in manufacturing activity and industrial production have been weak, employment and income growth remain positive.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. decreased by 0.1 percent in April 2023 to 118.3 (2016 = 100), after remaining unchanged in March. The LAG is up 0.9 percent over the six-month period from October 2022 and April 2023, down significantly from its growth rate of 4.0 percent over the previous six months.

   The next release is scheduled for Thursday, June 22, 2023, at 10 A.M. ET.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for the U.S.: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or "leads") turning points in the business cycle by around 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM^® Index of New Orders; Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500^® Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit Index^™; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board 
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org

SOURCE The Conference Board

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