The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. Increases Slightly in July

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Sep 12, 2014, 05:00 ET

BRUSSELS, Sept. 12, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.1 percent in July, after a 0.6 percent increase in June and a 0.5 percent increase in May. Four of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 111.8 (2004=100).

"The Leading Economic Index for the U.K. increased only slightly in July amid weakening production expectations, consumer confidence, and stock markets," says Ataman Ozyildirim, Director for Business Cycle and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "Although the six month growth rate of the LEI still points to economic expansion that will be stronger than in continental Europe, rising tensions in Eastern Europe, persistent deflation in the Euro Area, and now the prospect of an independent Scotland pose increasing uncertainty and risks to the U.K. economy."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, remained unchanged in July, after it increased 0.1 percent in June and decreased 0.2 percent in May. The index now stands at 106.9 (2004 = 100).

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and eleven other countries, including Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases: http://www.conference-board.org/data/

For more information: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

For full press release: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=2

About The Conference Board
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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
	2014						6-month
	May		Jun		Jul		Jan to Jul

Leading Economic Index (LEI)	111.0	p	111.7	p	111.8	p
Percent Change	0.5	p	0.6	p	0.1	p	2.2	p
Diffusion	78.6		85.7		57.1		85.7

Coincident Economic Index (CEI)	106.8	p	106.9	p	106.9	p
Percent Change	-0.2	p	0.1	p	0.0	p	0.8	p
Diffusion	25.0		87.5		87.5		100.0

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised Indexes equal 100 in 2004 Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved