The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Declines

NEW YORK, May 5, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan declined 0.8 percent in March to 96.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in February, and a 1.2 percent increase in January.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, declined 2.6 percent in March to 96.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in February, and a 0.3 percent increase in January.

Much like in the aftermath of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake, the upward trend in both The Conference Board LEI and The Conference Board CEI for Japan was interrupted by the March 11th Tohoku earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disasters. (The LEI and the CEI both declined by 0.4 percent in January 1995, the month when the Kobe earthquake struck.) As a result, the six-month growth rate of the leading economic index has moderated from last month, and the six-month change in the coincident index has turned negative. Although it is still too early to determine the full economic impact of the disasters, the composite indexes and their components suggest that the recovery, which was regaining some traction before these events, may pause again, and that economic activity will likely slow in the coming months.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

For more information including full press release and technical notes: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

SOURCE The Conference Board

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