The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, Together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Increased in October

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Nov 17, 2014, 08:00 ET

RIO DE JANEIRO, Nov. 17, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), increased 0.8 percent in October. The index now stands at 121.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decline in September and a 1.1 percent decline in August. Five of the eight components contributed positively to the index in October.

"The recent increases in the LEI and CEI suggest that the Brazilian economy is not likely to deteriorate further, and may even marginally improve in the coming months," said Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "However, a successful turnaround hinges on the ability of policy makers to restore consumer and investment confidence following the general elections."

Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board, added: "Despite widespread weakness among the leading indicators, the decline in the six-month growth rates of the LEI and CEI has moderated, suggesting economic conditions could soon begin to stabilize. October's improvement in the LEI was driven primarily by better manufacturing and services expectations."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in October to 127.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in September and a 0.4 percent increase in August. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in October.

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:

Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo/ Sao Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE - Instituto Brasilieiro de Geografia e Estatistica/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)

https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=12

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.

www.conferenceboard.org

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ABOUT FGV/IBRE

The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasilieiro de Economia -- IBRE) at Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyze, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served as Brazil's official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.

www.fgv.br/ibre


Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

	2014						6-month
	Aug		Sep		Oct		Apr to Oct

Leading Economic Index	121.0	r	120.6		121.6	p
Percent Change	-1.1	r	-0.3	r	0.8	p	-1.6
Diffusion	31.3		25.0		62.5		12.5

Coincident Economic Index	127.5		127.3	p	127.4	p
Percent Change	0.4	r	-0.2	p	0.1	p	-0.6
Diffusion	75.0		33.3		83.3		16.7

n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised Indexes equal 100 in 2004 Sources: The Conference Board, FGV/IBRE All Rights Reserved