Shortly Before Texas Diagnosis, Four in Ten Americans Believed Ebola Represented a Threat to Public Health in the U.S.

NEW YORK, Oct. 2, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- With Tuesday's announcement that a patient in Dallas, TX has been diagnosed with Ebola, much discussion has since revolved around looking ahead – containing the disease and preventing it from becoming an outbreak. Looking back, on the other hand, shows that as little as two weeks before the first diagnosed case within our borders, four in ten Americans (40%) perceived Ebola as a major or moderate threat to public health in the United States. Nearly half (47%) rated it either a minimal threat or no threat, while 13% were unsure.

Looking at other viruses and diseases evaluated in the study, more Americans expressed concerns that Hepatitis C (48%) and West Nile Virus (47%) represented major/moderate threats to public health in the U.S, while slightly fewer said the same of H1N1/"Swine Flu" (37%). Fewer still expressed concerns that SARS or Measles (28% each) represented such a threat, while one-fourth (25%) expressed such concerns over Rabies.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll® of 2,543 adults surveyed online between September 10 and 17, 2014. It should be noted that while all interviews were conducted prior to the diagnosed case in Texas, the World Health Organization (WHO) had declared the Ebola epidemic in West Africa an international health emergency several weeks earlier.  (Full results, including data tables, available here)

While many of the viruses discussed within the survey varied by generation in terms of whether they represent a threat to public health in the U.S., no significant differences emerged for Ebola (39% Millennials, 37% Gen Xers, 42% Baby Boomers, 41% Matures).

Different story when looking at the issue worldwide
When the same respondents were asked more broadly to describe how much of a threat to public health Ebola and the other diseases tested represent anywhere in the world, results suggest that coverage of the crisis in West Africa had permeated the public consciousness to a substantial degree. Eight in ten (80%) identified Ebola as a threat to public health anywhere in the world, with half (51%) specifically identifying it as a major threat.

• Here, generational differences did emerge, with Matures (89%) and Baby Boomers (85%) more likely than Gen Xers (78%) and Millennials (72%) to identify Ebola as a threat to public health anywhere in the world. Nevertheless, strong majorities across generations did recognize Ebola as such.

Fewer than four in ten Americans self-assessed as knowledgeable about Ebola
At the time of the interview, 38% of Americans considered themselves to be very or somewhat knowledgeable about Ebola, putting it on par with Smallpox (also 38%) and just ahead of Hepatitis C (36%). By means of comparison, just over half of Americans considered themselves knowledgeable about Rabies (52%) and Measles (51%), while four in ten indicated the same for Polio (41%), H1N1/"Swine Flu"(also 41%) and West Nile Virus (40%).

• Millennials (41%), Gen Xers (40%) and Baby Boomers (39%) were all more likely than Matures (29%) to describe themselves as knowledgeable about Ebola.

Overstated threat?
WHO reports that while Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) case fatality rates have ranged from 25% to 90%, they average at roughly 50%. Given this, Americans appear to slightly overestimate patients' likelihood of dying from the disease, estimating a mean of roughly 58% of diagnosed cases resulting in death.

• Matures and Baby Boomers estimate higher mean fatality rates (64% and 61%, respectively) than Gen Xers (56%) and Millennials (54%).
• An especially telling stat drives home the point that self-assessed knowledge does not necessarily equate to true knowledge. Those who consider themselves knowledgeable about Ebola are more likely than those who do not to overestimate the disease's fatality rate (with mean estimates of 64% and 54%, respectively)

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Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between September 10 and 17, 2014 among 2,543 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, The Harris Poll avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Poll surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in our panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of The Harris Poll.

Product and brand names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners.

The Harris Poll® #91, October 2, 2014
By Larry Shannon-Missal, Managing Editor, The Harris Poll

About The Harris Poll® 
Begun in 1963, The Harris Poll is one of the longest running surveys measuring public opinion in the U.S. and is highly regarded throughout the world. The nationally representative polls, conducted primarily online, measure the knowledge, opinions, behaviors and motivations of the general public. New and trended polls on a wide variety of subjects including politics, the economy, healthcare, foreign affairs, science and technology, sports and entertainment, and lifestyles are published weekly. For more information, or to see other recent polls, visit the Harris Poll News Room.

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SOURCE The Harris Poll