Services PMI® at 69.1%; November 2021 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 74.6%; New Orders Index at 69.7%; Employment Index at 56.5%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 75.7% 

TEMPE, Ariz., Dec. 3, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the 18th month in a row — with the Services PMI^® setting a record for the fifth time in 2021 — say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: "In November, the Services PMI^® registered another all-time high of 69.1 percent, 2.4 percentage points above October's reading of 66.7 percent, the former all-time high. Previous records were set in March (63.7 percent), May (64 percent) and July (64.1 percent). The data quickly explains the elevated Services PMI^® reading, as two of the four equally weighted subindexes that directly factor into the composite index set or tied all-time highs. The Business Activity Index reached 74.6 percent, an increase of 4.8 percentage points compared to the reading of 69.8 percent in October, and the New Orders Index registered 69.7 percent, the same reading as last month's figure. (The other two subindexes are Employment and Supplier Deliveries; both also contributed positively to the Services PMI^® in November.)

"The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 75.7 percent, the same reading as in October. The all-time high is 78.3 percent, recorded in April 2020. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

"Demand continues to be strong, reflected by two other subindexes in November. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 65.9 percent, 1.4 percentage points lower than October's all-time high reading of 67.3 percent. The Prices Index reached its third-highest reading ever at 82.3 percent, down 0.6 percentage point from the October figure of 82.9 percent. Services businesses continue to struggle replenishing inventories, as the Inventories Index (48.2 percent, up 6 percentage points from October's reading of 42.2 percent) and the Inventory Sentiment Index (an all-time low of 36.4 percent, down 0.9 percentage point from the previous month's figure of 37.3 percent) stayed in contraction or 'too low' territory in November."

Nieves continues, "According to the Services PMI^®, all 18 services industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 18th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. In November, record growth continued for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 142 months. Demand continues to outpace supply that has been impacted by capacity constraints, shortages of labor and materials, and logistical challenges. This has also caused demand-pull inflation that is affecting overall business conditions."

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
All 18 services industries reporting growth in November — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Public Administration; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Information; Educational Services; and Accommodation & Food Services. No industries are reporting contraction in November.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• "Labor shortages, transportation delays and supply constraints/allocations." [Accommodation & Food Services]
• "Business is greater than in the past. Supply chain issues persist, but we're evolving to overcome or manage them better than in the past." [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
• "Some food products that we have contracts on have been unavailable. Substitutes are always higher in cost." [Arts, Entertainment & Recreation]
• "Construction material shortages and longer lead times continue to hamper operations. Significant cost increases from labor and freight are forecast for the start of next year." [Construction]
• "As an institution of higher education, maintaining the safety, health and security of thousands of students, faculty and staff while allowing classes to continue in person and virtually has been a juggling act. We have been faced with multiple shortages on everything from personal protective equipment (PPE) to computers and peripherals, and vehicles. Shipments are taking longer and prices continue to climb, putting additional strain on (already) stressed budgets." [Educational Services]
• "Seeing inflationary forces in the marketplace, which is resulting in suppliers raising their prices moving into 2022." [Finance & Insurance]
• "COVID-19 patients continue to impact census and procedures. Supplies continue to be difficult to obtain at times." [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• "Suppliers continue to report that labor shortages are leading to production issues and delays. In some areas, sufficient raw materials and capacity exist, but labor is the gating factor. Continued inflationary pressures driven by the cost of fuel, shipping capacity constraints, and imbalances in supply and demand are impacting a broad spectrum of products." [Management of Companies & Support Services]
• "Late deliveries and shortages continue. Disruptions seem to be declining somewhat, as suppliers and customers are finding innovative ways to keep supplies moving." [Public Administration]
• "Continuing struggle with transportation capacity." [Retail Trade]
• "The COVID-19 surge, inventory shortages, driver and maintenance worker shortages, and long lead times for materials are straining our system. This limits our ability to keep vehicles on the road and necessary services running on schedule." [Transportation & Warehousing]
• "Inflation and supply chain issues have caused cost increases and stockouts, but sales continue to be strong, with a positive outlook for the next quarter and beyond." [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
**Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (5); Bacon; Beef (3); Bread; Chemicals (3); Chicken (3); Chlorine; Computers and Peripherals; Construction Contractors (5); Copy Paper; Diesel Fuel (12); Electrical Components (10); Electronics (3); Freight (7); Fuel (11); Gasoline (12); Gloves; Labor (12); Labor — Construction (4); Labor — Technical; Labor — Temporary (11); Natural Gas (2); Packaging; Paper; Pipette Tips; Plastic Products (4); Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Products (3); Professional Services; Raw Materials; Software Maintenance and Support (2); Steel (2); Steel Products (11); and Transportation Costs (2).

Commodities Down in Price
Exam Gloves; and Lumber (5).

Commodities in Short Supply
Blood Collection Tubes (3); Computer Equipment (4); Construction Contractors (3); Construction Materials; Construction Subcontractors (4); Copper; Crutches (2); Electrical Components (3); Engine Components; Labor (4); Labor — Construction; Laptops and Desktop Computers (4); Paper Products (2); Plastic Pipe Fittings; Pipette Tips (9); Plastic Pipe (2); Plastic Pipe Fittings; Plastic Products; Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC); Steel Products (3); and Suction Canisters.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity has been listed is indicated after each item.

NOVEMBER 2021 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®

In November, the Services PMI^® registered 69.1 percent, a 2.4-percentage point increase compared to the October figure of 66.7 percent. This is the highest reading since the inception of the index in 2008. The 12-month average is 62.1 percent, which reflects strong and sustained demand in the services sector. The November reading indicates the services sector grew for the 18th consecutive month after two months of contraction and 122 months of growth before that. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the services sector is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 49.2 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the November Services PMI^® indicates expansion for a 18th straight month following two months of contraction and a preceding period of 127 months of growth. Nieves says, "The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for November (69.1 percent) corresponds to a 6.9-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity
ISM^®'s Business Activity Index registered another all-time high of 74.6 percent in November, an increase of 4.8 percentage points over the previous mark of 69.8 percent in October, indicating growth for the 18th consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: "Order levels have increased, and we are learning to work with the randomly dynamic increasing lead times" and "Historical demand trend."

The 16 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of November — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Other Services; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Information; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Educational Services. No industry reported a decrease in November compared to October.

New Orders
ISM^®'s New Orders Index registered a record 69.7 percent, equaling the all-time high reading in October. New orders grew for the 18th consecutive month after two months of contraction and a preceding period of 128 months of expansion. Comments from respondents include: "Economic situation is getting better and supply chain is improving" and "Supply chain issues are creating anxiety in the marketplace, and clients are doing just-in-case buying instead of just-in-time."

All 18 industries reported growth of new orders in November, in this order: Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; and Educational Services. No industries reported a decrease in new orders in November.

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector grew in November for the fifth consecutive month after contracting in June. ISM^®'s Services Employment Index registered 56.5 percent in November, up 4.9 percentage points from the October reading of 51.6 percent. Comments from respondents include: "People are quitting to get paid more at different occupations" and "Increased business activity and customer demand requires more human resources."

The 11 industries reporting an increase in employment in November — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The four industries that reported a reduction in employment in November are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Construction.

Supplier Deliveries
The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 75.7 percent, the same figure as in October. For a second straight month, the index posted its second-highest reading, exceeded only by the record 78.3 percent registered in April 2020. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: "Shortages of raw materials (and) of delivery drivers" and "Longer lead times for transportation."

The 17 industries reporting slower deliveries in November — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Utilities; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; and Finance & Insurance. No industries reported faster supplier deliveries in November.

Inventories
The Inventories Index contracted in November for the sixth consecutive month. The reading of 48.2 percent was a 6-percentage point increase from the 42.2 percent reported in October. Of the total respondents in November, 37 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: "Longer lead times affecting safety stock" and "Utilizing current inventories with slower replacements due to logistical challenges."

The seven industries reporting an increase in inventories in November — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Utilities. The nine industries reporting a decrease in inventories in November — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Information; and Wholesale Trade.

Prices
Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in November, with the index registering 82.3 percent, 0.6 percentage point lower than October's reading of 82.9 percent. This is the third-highest reading since September 2005, when the index reached its all-time high of 83.5 percent.

All 18 services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of November, in the following order: Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Public Administration; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Other Services. No industries reported a decrease in prices paid in November.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index grew in November for the 17th time in the last 18 months. The index registered 65.9 percent, a 1.4-percentage point decrease compared to last month's record reading of 67.3 percent. (The previous all-time high was 65.8 percent, set in June.) Of the total respondents in November, 38 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders.

The 13 industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in November — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Educational Services. The two industries that reported a decrease in backlogs in November are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Mining.

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies grew in November for the 10th consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index registered 57.9 percent, 4.4 percentage points lower than the 62.3 percent reported in October. Of the total respondents in November, 79 percent indicated they either do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The four industries reporting an increase in new export orders in November are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The three industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in November are Educational Services; Information; and Finance & Insurance. Eleven industries reported no change in exports orders.

Imports
The Imports Index grew in November for the second consecutive month, as it registered 50.5 percent, 2.8 percentage points lower than October's figure of 53.3 percent. Sixty-four percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The five industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of November are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Utilities; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The four industries reporting a decrease in imports in November are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Information; and Accommodation & Food Services. Nine industries reported no change in imports in November.

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index contracted in November for the eighth consecutive month, registering an all-time low of 36.4 percent, a 0.9-percentage point decrease from October's figure of 37.3 percent. The previous record low of 37.2 percent was recorded in June 2021. This indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too low when correlated to business activity levels.

The six industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in November — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The eight industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in November — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; and Information.

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of November 2021.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry's contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2019 GDP (released December 22, 2020), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Government; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance. Beginning in February 2020 with January 2020 data, computation of the indexes is accomplished utilizing unrounded numbers.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 49.2 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49.2 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49.2 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

ISM ROB Content
The Institute for Supply Management^® ("ISM") Report On Business^® (Manufacturing, Services and Hospital reports) ("ISM ROB") contains information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, "Content") of ISM ("ISM ROB Content"). ISM ROB Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM ROB Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM ROB Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM ROB Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM ROB Content.

Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including, but not limited to: tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit.

You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 W. Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, AZ 85284-1556, or by emailing [email protected]; subject: Content Request.

ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business^®, Manufacturing PMI^®, Services PMI^®, and Hospital PMI^™ are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management^®. Institute for Supply Management^® and ISM^® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc.

About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business^®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM Advance^TM Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring December 2021 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, January 6, 2022.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management

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