Rising Interest Rates Send Mortgage Payments Climbing Twice as Fast as Home Values

Buyers today would have to spend about $1,400 more per year on their mortgage than they would have a year ago as rates have risen rapidly since the beginning of 2018

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Zillow

Oct 16, 2018, 08:00 ET

SEATTLE, Oct. 16, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Buyers' monthly housing costs are growing rapidly as mortgage rates have risen significantly since the beginning of the year.

A new Zillow® analysis finds that higher rates are responsible for about two-thirds of the increase in buyers' monthly mortgage payments compared with what those costs would have been a year ago had home values remained constant at their current level.

Monthly mortgage payments for the typical home are 15.4 percent higher than they were in August 2017. The median home value is 6.5 percent higher over the past year. For someone buying the median U.S. home, their monthly mortgage payments are $118 higher, or $1,416 each year.

These higher mortgage payments reflect the combination of increased home values as well as the higher interest rates for buyers.

Since the beginning of the year, mortgage rates have climbed from the historic lows they were near for much of the past decade. The average mortgage rate at the beginning of the year was about 4 percent, and reached 4.9 percent in the last weekⁱ. Incoming economic data increasingly point to a booming U.S. economy, and this strength is pushing rates higher. The Federal Reserve has raised the target federal funds rate three times so far this year, with as many as five more expected through the end of 2019. A one percentage point increase to the current rate translates to about $1,200 more per year in mortgage payments for the typical U.S. home at its current value, even if home prices stayed the sameⁱⁱ.

While mortgage rates have risen, home value appreciation has slowed somewhat, growing 6.5 percent annually in August after peaking at 8.2 percent in March 2018. These slower price gains may be seen as an advantage for buyers, but the rapid increase in mortgage rates work against the benefits of a slightly cooler market, as the mortgage payments themselves continue to climb.

"For most of the current economic expansion, mortgage rates have remained just off historic lows even as the American economy has accelerated," said Zillow Senior Economist Aaron Terrazas. "We're finally starting to see typical patterns asserting themselves in the housing market, and conditions are returning to more of what we would expect in a normal economy. Home buyers and sellers have become accustomed to low rates, and there will be a bit of an adjustment period as the market adapts. Looking ahead, the impact of higher rates may slow the pace of home value growth, particularly in the nation's priciest markets. Buyers will face higher financing costs, but also could benefit from somewhat less frenetic competition."

Buyers in San Jose, who also face the highest median home values, will see the biggest impact on their monthly mortgage costs from rising rates. Monthly mortgage payments on the typical home are $1,300 higher than they would have been a year ago, meaning buyers would be spending about $15,500 more every year – about 10 times larger than the nationwide increase.

Metropolitan Area	Median Home Value, August 2018	Annual Change in Median Home Value	Annual Change in Monthly Mortgage Payments (%)
United States	$ 216,700	6.5%	15.4%
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY	$ 426,300	4.4%	13.1%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA	$ 641,800	5.2%	13.9%
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL	$ 219,100	4.2%	12.9%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX	$ 229,400	9.7%	18.8%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA	$ 227,200	4.2%	12.9%
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX	$ 198,500	5.3%	14.1%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, VA	$ 397,800	3.2%	11.8%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL	$ 274,000	7.0%	15.9%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA	$ 204,600	10.4%	19.6%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA	$ 451,500	5.2%	14.0%
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA	$ 947,700	9.0%	18.0%
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI	$ 153,900	7.4%	16.3%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	$ 356,600	5.5%	14.3%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	$ 254,400	6.3%	15.2%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA	$ 486,800	8.2%	17.1%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN	$ 258,900	5.4%	14.2%
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA	$ 580,500	4.9%	13.6%
St. Louis, MO	$ 161,200	4.6%	13.3%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	$ 205,000	8.9%	17.9%
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD	$ 263,300	3.9%	12.5%
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO	$ 396,200	6.2%	15.0%
Pittsburgh, PA	$ 140,200	6.1%	15.0%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR	$ 387,900	4.2%	12.9%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC	$ 195,000	8.8%	17.8%
Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade, CA	$ 397,100	4.3%	13.0%
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX	$ 184,600	4.4%	13.1%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL	$ 226,300	7.9%	16.9%
Cincinnati, OH	$ 161,000	5.4%	14.1%
Cleveland-Elyria, OH	$ 140,400	5.2%	14.0%
Kansas City, MO	$ 181,300	7.5%	16.5%
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV	$ 263,300	12.0%	21.3%
Columbus, OH	$ 180,700	6.5%	15.3%
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN	$ 152,700	8.1%	17.1%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA	$ 1,281,100	22.7%	32.9%
Austin-Round Rock, TX	$ 296,300	5.3%	14.1%

Zillow

Zillow is the leading real estate and rental marketplace dedicated to empowering consumers with data, inspiration and knowledge around the place they call home, and connecting them with great real estate professionals. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow Group's Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. Dr. Gudell and her team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five years. Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:Z and ZG), and headquartered in Seattle.

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ⁱ According to Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
ⁱⁱ Based on the August median home value of $216,700, and the current quoted mortgage rate of 4.7 percent on Zillow Mortgages as of October 12,2018.

SOURCE Zillow