Retail Sales Down 2% Through First Half of 2018; Average Transaction Price Reaches Record High

"The first half of 2018 will deliver the weakest industry retail sales results since 2014," said Thomas King, Senior Vice President of the Data and Analytics Division at J.D. Power. "However, weaker sales volumes are being offset by higher transaction prices, which are expected to reach $32,221 for the first half, up $824 compared with 2017." This means consumers are on pace to spend $215 billion on new vehicles, nearly $5 billion more than the first six months of 2017.

"Despite the dip in retail sales, absolute volumes remain strong and from a consumer expenditure perspective, 2018 is expected to be another record-breaking year for the industry," King added.

J.D. Power and LMC Automotive U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons

• The average new-vehicle retail transaction price to date in June is $32,169, an all-time monthly record. The previous high for the month of June—$31,636—was set last year.
• The average new-vehicle retail transaction price for the first six months of 2018 is expected to reach a record $32,221, surpassing the previous high of $31,397 set in the first half of 2017.
• Average incentive spending per unit to date in June is $3,765. Through the first six months of the year spending is $3,892, up $118 from the prior year.
• Consumers are on pace to spend $38.9 billion on new vehicles in June, which is $1.8 billion more than last year's level.
• Trucks account for 67% of new-vehicle retail sales through June 17—the highest level ever for the month of June—making it the 24th consecutive month above 60%.
• Days to turn, the average number of days a new vehicle sits on a dealer lot before being sold to a retail customer, is 70 through June 17. This is flat vs. last year.
• Fleet sales are expected to total 300,200 units in June, down 4.0% from June 2017. Fleet volume is expected to account for 20% of total light-vehicle sales, down 1 percentage point vs. last year.

Jeff Schuster, President, Americas Operations and Global Vehicle Forecasts at LMC Automotive, said, "Tariff threats remain at center stage. The high level of uncertainty and expected negative effects are causing profit and volume warnings. A trade war involving vehicles would be devastating to sales volume in the United States and other key markets. No one wins when more than a million units annually are at risk in the U.S."

In the face of the risk, LMC's base case forecast for 2018 total light-vehicle sales is holding at 17.1,  a decrease of 0.4% from 2017. The retail light-vehicle forecast remains at 13.8 million units, a decline of 1.5% from 2017. Fleet volume is expected to grow by 115,000 units, or 3.5%, and represents 19.5% of total light-vehicle sales.

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Media Relations Contacts
Geno Effler; J.D. Power; Costa Mesa, Calif.; 714-621-6224; [email protected]
Emmie Littlejohn; LMC Automotive; Troy, Mich.; 248-817-2100; [email protected]

No advertising or other promotional use can be made of the information in this release without the express prior written consent of J.D. Power or LMC Automotive. www.jdpower.com/corporate  www.lmc-auto.com

SOURCE J.D. Power

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