Principles For Dealing With The Changing World Order

A few years ago, legendary investor Ray Dalio observed a confluence of three forces that have never happened in his lifetime but have happened many times in history before: 1) zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive debt creation and the printing of money in the world's major reserve currencies; 2) big political and social conflicts within countries due to the largest wealth, political, and values gaps; and 3) the rise of a great power to challenge the existing world power and subsequently, the existing world order. As a global macro investor for more than 50 years, Dalio has learned that to understand the big cause-effect relationships of economic events he needs to study many cases in history. As such, he undertook a study of the rise and fall of major empires and their markets over the last 500 years. This book is that study.

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, publishing on November 30^th, 2021, clearly presents Dalio's "Big Cycle" model for how the world works. The model explains what has driven the successes and failures of countries throughout history and contains imperative lessons for today's economic, political and policy environment. To show how the model works, he takes readers through the major empires of the last 500 years—including the Dutch, British, American and now the rising Chinese. He explains in detail the framework of a "Big Cycle" that has driven the successes and failures of countries throughout history and contains imperative lessons that apply to today's economic, political and policy environment.

"I knew that I wouldn't be able to understand and navigate what's happening today—much less what may come—without having a deep understanding of the cause-effect relationships that are embedded in pattens of history," said Dalio. "My hope is that this book will be of some use to others seeking to understand these cause-effect patterns and what they mean for the decisions we make individually and collectively today."

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order is unlike any other work of history because it is written by an extremely practical investor who has made a 50+ year career by betting on how events will unfold. Dalio's unique global perspective is founded on unmatched experience and decades of interactions with the leading markets and policy makers in the world. While in the past he would have kept these insights to himself, he is now at stage in his life where his main goal is to help others be successful by passing along his learnings, which he is doing once again in his latest book.

Dalio and his team turn their understandings into models and algorithms that help them understand and deal with the dynamic combination of economic and political of forces that shape our world. Their insights and models are shared throughout the book, culminating in a one-of-a-kind "Overall Empire Score" for eleven of the world's leading nations. This score measures the 18 key factors that lead countries to rise and fall over time. It is a "health index" that people and policy makers can use as a guide to what is happening and how to make their countries healthier. Dalio will update and publish these scores annually.

Dalio is the founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates, which he founded in 1975 out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York and has since grown into the largest hedge fund in the world and one of most important private companies in the U.S. according to Fortune. As explained in his New York Times #1 Bestseller Principles: Life & Work, one of Dalio's core beliefs is that most everything happens in cycles that are repeated throughout history, and so by studying patterns one can understand the cause-effect relationships behind events and develop principles for dealing with them well. Dalio believes that this unique way of studying and understanding the world has been the main factor behind his success and is an approach that anyone can adopt.

The book will go on-sale on November 30^th, 2021. Interested readers will have the choice between a Kindle version, available through Amazon, for $16.99, and a hardcover print version for $29.99.

For more information on book and how to preorder it, please visit Principles.com/the-changing-world-order.

About the Author:

Ray Dalio is the founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates, a global asset manager and leader in institutional portfolio management as well as the largest hedge fund in the world. Under Dalio's guidance, Bridgewater Associates has developed a distinctive culture, an idea-meritocracy that produces meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truth and radical transparency that is the foundation of the firm's success. Since starting Bridgewater Associates out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York in 1975, Dalio has grown the firm into the largest hedge fund in the world and one of the most important private companies in the U.S. according to Fortune. It has made more money for its clients than any other hedge fund since its inception, according to LCH Investments. For his innovative work as well as being a valued advisor to many global policy makers, Dalio has also been called the "Steve Jobs of Investing" by ai-CIO Magazine and Wired Magazine, and has been named one of TIME Magazine's 100 Most Influential People. Over the past three decades, Dalio wrote down his decision-making criteria and has recently passed along his principles and tools through his book, Principles: Life & Work, a New York Times #1 Bestseller and Amazon #1 Business Book of 2017.

About the Book:

Title: Principles for Understanding the Changing World Order
Author: Ray Dalio
Publisher: Simon & Schuster
Publication Date: November 30^th, 2021

Key Quotes from Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order:

"One's ability to anticipate and deal well with the future depends on one's understanding of the cause/effect relationships that make things change, and one's ability to understand these cause/effect relationships comes from studying how they have changed in the past."

"No system of government, no economic system, no currency, and no empire lasts forever, yet almost everyone is surprised and ruined when they fail."

"All the empires and dynasties I studied rose and declined win a classic Big Cycle that has clear markers that allow us to see where we are in it. This Big Cycle produces swings between 1) peaceful and prosperous periods of great creativity and productivity that raise living standards a lot and 2) depression, revolution, and war periods when there is a lot of fighting over wealth and power and a lot of destruction of wealth, life, and other things we cherish."

"Around the upward trend of productivity gains that produce rising wealth and better living standards, there are cycles that produce prosperous periods of building in which the country is fundamentally strong because there are relatively low levels of indebtedness, relatively small wealth gaps, values, and political gaps, people working effectively together to produce prosperity, good education and infrastructure, strong and capable leadership, and a peaceful world order that is guided by one or more dominant world powers. These are the prosperous and enjoyable periods. When they are taken to excess, which they always are, the excesses lead to depressing periods of destruction and restructuring in which the country's fundamental weaknesses of high levels of indebtedness, large wealth gaps, values, and political gaps, different factions of people unable to work well together, poor education and infrastructure, and the struggle to maintain an overextended empire under the challenge of emerging rivals lead to a painful period of fighting, destruction, and then a restructuring that establishes a new order, setting the stage for a new period of building."

"The stats in my model suggest that the US is roughly 70 percent through its Big Cycle, plus or minus 10 percent. The United States has not yet crossed the line into the sixth phase of a civil war/revolution, when the active fighting begins, but internal conflict is high and rising."

"Ultimately, it would be wise for leaders and citizens of both countries to recognize that the US and China are in a competition of systems and abilities. Each will inevitably follow the system that they believe works best for them, Americans have a slight lead in power, but it is shrinking and they're outnumbered, and history has shown that while numbers of people can matter a lot, other factors matter more, so even small-population empires become leading world powers if they manage themselves well."

"How people are with each other is of paramount importance in determining how they will handle the circumstances that they jointly face, and the cultures that they have will be the biggest determinants of how they are with each other."

"The internal wars and challenges in both China and the US are more important and bigger than external wars and challenges. These include political wars within the leadership of the country and at all levels of government, wars between different factions (e.g., the rich and the poor, the rural and the urban, conservatives and progressives, ethnic groups, etc.), demographic changes, climate change, etc. Fortunately, the most important of these forces are within our control and are measurable, which allows us to see how we are doing and, if we're not doing well, to make changes so these things move in the right directions. By and large we will get what we deserve. As Churchill said to the British people, 'Deserve Victory!'"

Excerpts from Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order:

Select excerpts available upon request. Please email Ryan FitzGibbon at [email protected].

Media Contact

Ryan FitzGibbon
Prosek Partners
[email protected]

SOURCE Avid Reader Press