President Obama Would Lose if Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani Was the Nominee
Republican field problem is one of recognition - most are unknown
NEW YORK, July 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- By this time next summer the Republican candidate who will challenge President Obama will be known but at this point the list of candidates and potential candidates for the nomination is still far from finalized. With the "will-he-or-she-run-questions" still being asked and answered, some of the names with the highest familiarity among the general public are still not even declared candidates.
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Obviously because of her run for Vice President with John McCain, almost nine in ten Americans (86%) are familiar with Sarah Palin and 75% of U.S. adults are familiar with Rudy Giuliani, both of whom are still undeclared, but possible candidates for the nomination. Majorities of Americans are familiar with declared candidates Newt Gingrich (72%), Mitt Romney (67%), and Ron Paul (52%) while half are familiar with Michele Bachmann (50%). All other potential candidates are at 30% or under in terms of familiarity.
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,183 adults surveyed online between July 11 and 18, 2011 by Harris Interactive.
Even among Republicans, many declared candidates do not have majorities familiar with them. Tim Pawlenty (33%), Rick Santorum (31%), Herman Cain (29%), and Jon Huntsman (15%) all have one-third of Republicans or less familiar with them.
With this in mind, it's not surprising then that among Republicans over one-quarter (28%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for if they were voting in the Republican primary. Rudy Giuliani (14%) and Mitt Romney (14%) rise to the top among Republicans followed by Sarah Palin (12%). All the other candidates presented are under 10% including Rick Perry (8%), Michele Bachmann (6%), and Ron Paul (5%). Among Independents there is a three tie for "first place" between Rudy Giuliani (10%), Mitt Romney (10%) and Ron Paul (10%). But over two in five Independents (42%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary election.
Against President Obama
Looking ahead to November, it seems there are three possible candidates who could give President Obama a difficult time. President Obama would lose his re-election if Rudy Giuliani (53% to 47%) or Mitt Romney (51% to 49%) was the Republican nominee. Each candidate would receive 50% of the vote if the President was running against Ron Paul. Right now, President Obama would win re-election against the 10 other candidates presented.
So What?
Right now the Republican party needs to figure out who they are and begin the process of coalescing around one candidate. In the study of politics, there is always a debate regarding electability and this election may show that clearly. Should Republicans nominate a candidate who stands for certain values or policies important to a sub-section of the party, even though that candidate may not be electable in the general election? This is a question the Republican party needs to answer if they want to win next November.
TABLE 1A REPUBLICAN FAMILIARITY "How familiar are you with each of the following people?" Base: All adults |
|||||||
Familiar (NET) |
Very familiar |
Somewhat familiar |
Not familiar (NET) |
Not very familiar |
Not at all familiar |
||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Sarah Palin |
86 |
48 |
38 |
14 |
8 |
5 |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
75 |
37 |
39 |
25 |
11 |
14 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
72 |
35 |
37 |
28 |
14 |
13 |
|
Mitt Romney |
67 |
29 |
38 |
33 |
16 |
16 |
|
Ron Paul |
52 |
19 |
33 |
48 |
21 |
27 |
|
Michele Bachmann |
50 |
19 |
31 |
50 |
18 |
32 |
|
Rick Perry |
30 |
13 |
17 |
70 |
20 |
50 |
|
Tim Pawlenty |
28 |
9 |
19 |
72 |
22 |
50 |
|
Rick Santorum |
28 |
10 |
18 |
72 |
20 |
52 |
|
Herman Cain |
22 |
7 |
15 |
78 |
18 |
60 |
|
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
15 |
4 |
11 |
85 |
22 |
63 |
|
Gary Johnson |
8 |
3 |
5 |
92 |
18 |
74 |
|
Thaddeus McCotter |
8 |
3 |
5 |
92 |
15 |
77 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding |
|||||||
TABLE 1B REPUBLICAN FAMILIARITY "How familiar are you with each of the following people?" Summary of those saying "Very familiar" or "Somewhat familiar" Base: All adults |
||||||||
Total |
Party ID |
Philosophy |
||||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
|||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Sarah Palin |
86 |
88 |
89 |
89 |
85 |
86 |
91 |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
75 |
77 |
77 |
78 |
74 |
74 |
80 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
72 |
76 |
74 |
76 |
76 |
69 |
74 |
|
Mitt Romney |
67 |
74 |
65 |
73 |
69 |
65 |
70 |
|
Ron Paul |
52 |
55 |
50 |
60 |
54 |
48 |
59 |
|
Michele Bachmann |
50 |
50 |
50 |
55 |
53 |
43 |
59 |
|
Rick Perry |
30 |
38 |
26 |
30 |
37 |
26 |
29 |
|
Tim Pawlenty |
28 |
33 |
25 |
33 |
32 |
25 |
33 |
|
Rick Santorum |
28 |
31 |
27 |
32 |
33 |
23 |
32 |
|
Herman Cain |
22 |
29 |
17 |
25 |
32 |
16 |
21 |
|
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
15 |
15 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
11 |
23 |
|
Gary Johnson |
8 |
11 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
7 |
8 |
|
Thaddeus McCotter |
8 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding |
||||||||
TABLE 2 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION "If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?" Base: All adults |
||||||||||
Total March 2011 |
Total May 2011 |
Total July 2011 |
Party ID |
Philosophy |
||||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
|||||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Rudy Giuliani |
8 |
8 |
11 |
14 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
|
Mitt Romney |
10 |
10 |
11 |
14 |
12 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
13 |
|
Sarah Palin |
7 |
5 |
8 |
12 |
7 |
5 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
|
Ron Paul |
NA |
6 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
10 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
|
Rick Perry |
NA |
NA |
5 |
8 |
1 |
6 |
10 |
2 |
2 |
|
Michele Bachmann |
2 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
2 |
6 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
|
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
NA |
1 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
9 |
|
Herman Cain |
NA |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
|
Tim Pawlenty |
2 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
* |
1 |
3 |
1 |
* |
|
Newt Gingrich |
5 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
* |
1 |
3 |
* |
1 |
|
Rick Santorum |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
|
Thaddeus McCotter |
NA |
NA |
* |
* |
* |
1 |
* |
1 |
* |
|
Gary Johnson |
NA |
1 |
* |
* |
1 |
* |
1 |
* |
* |
|
Not at all sure |
45 |
42 |
44 |
28 |
53 |
42 |
34 |
51 |
44 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than .05%; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll. |
||||||||||
TABLE 3A 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA "Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?" Base: All adults |
|||
Would vote for |
|||
President Obama |
The Republican nominee |
||
% |
% |
||
Thaddeus McCotter |
57 |
43 |
|
Gary Johnson |
56 |
44 |
|
Herman Cain |
56 |
44 |
|
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
55 |
45 |
|
Rick Santorum |
55 |
45 |
|
Rick Perry |
54 |
46 |
|
Michele Bachmann |
54 |
46 |
|
Tim Pawlenty |
54 |
46 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
54 |
46 |
|
Sarah Palin |
54 |
46 |
|
Ron Paul |
50 |
50 |
|
Mitt Romney |
49 |
51 |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
47 |
53 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding |
|||
TABLE 3B 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA "Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?" Summary of those who would vote for the Republican nominee Base: All adults |
|||||||||||
Total March 2011 |
Total May 2011 |
Total July 2011 |
Party ID |
Philosophy |
Tea Party Support |
||||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
||||||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Rudy Giuliani |
51 |
51 |
53 |
89 |
24 |
56 |
84 |
48 |
19 |
87 |
|
Mitt Romney |
49 |
49 |
51 |
87 |
21 |
55 |
84 |
45 |
19 |
87 |
|
Ron Paul |
NA |
45 |
50 |
83 |
18 |
57 |
82 |
42 |
19 |
85 |
|
Sarah Palin |
42 |
42 |
46 |
79 |
20 |
48 |
78 |
40 |
13 |
83 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
44 |
44 |
46 |
82 |
15 |
49 |
81 |
37 |
15 |
82 |
|
Tim Pawlenty |
44 |
42 |
46 |
83 |
15 |
49 |
80 |
38 |
13 |
83 |
|
Michele Bachmann |
41 |
42 |
46 |
81 |
18 |
49 |
79 |
39 |
13 |
83 |
|
Rick Perry |
NA |
NA |
46 |
82 |
17 |
48 |
80 |
38 |
14 |
84 |
|
Rick Santorum |
43 |
43 |
45 |
81 |
15 |
48 |
79 |
37 |
14 |
83 |
|
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
NA |
41 |
45 |
81 |
16 |
46 |
77 |
37 |
14 |
81 |
|
Herman Cain |
NA |
41 |
44 |
79 |
15 |
46 |
77 |
37 |
12 |
81 |
|
Gary Johnson |
NA |
43 |
44 |
80 |
15 |
45 |
78 |
36 |
12 |
80 |
|
Thaddeus McCotter |
NA |
NA |
43 |
79 |
15 |
44 |
77 |
36 |
12 |
80 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll. |
|||||||||||
Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between July 11 to 18, 2011 among 2,183 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.
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Q1218, 1225, 1230, 1240, 1250
The Harris Poll® #87, July 26, 2011
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive
About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.
Press Contact:
Corporate Communications
Harris Interactive
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[email protected]
SOURCE Harris Interactive
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